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Two Storm Systems To Track

Good morning bloggers,

In Kansas City it has been cloudy for quite a long time.  There has been no sun at all since last Thursday, so today is our sixth straight completely cloudy day.  We have had rain, snow, fog, and not a lot of wind.  And, there has yet to be an Arctic blast this season.  The coldest Kansas City has been is 9 degrees above zero, and that was way back on the 10th of November.  A year ago it had already been down below zero quite a few days.

Take a look at the coldest mornings so far in KC:

  • 9° on November 10th
  • 12° on November 27th
  • 13° on November 9th
  • 14° on December 9th
  • 17° on  January 1st

This is amazing, if you think about it, and there is still a lot of winter left.  Kansas City just had 4″ to 12″ of snow, and a deep snowpack remains.  This cloudy stretch has been a blanket, keeping the low temperatures high.

Tonight’s weak storm system:

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There is a fast moving and rather weak storm that will track across the plains tonight into the Mississippi River Valley by morning.  This map above show the HRRR model valid at 11 PM central time tonight.  Temperatures will be near freezing, and a band of rain, sleet, snow, and possibly some light freezing rain will track across the Kansas/Missouri state line.  There may be some minor accumulation of ice and snow, most likely north of KC, and we just have to monitor this situation closely.  A weak surface cyclone will be tracking across Oklahoma tonight.

The stronger storm system:

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The models came in last night with widely varying solutions for the highly advertised next storm system.   As we showed in yesterday’s blog, this storm fits the part of the LRC that produced around an inch of rain and a half inch of snow in KC.   This is a storm that has its energy source still way out over the Pacific Ocean and it will not be hitting the coast until tomorrow, and this is why the models are having a problem with this set up.  The European Model and the FV3 GFS model have been the most consistent, and still have a set up similar to the one you can see above.  Both models produce 2″ to 6″ of snow near KC by noon Saturday, while other models have mostly rain, with only a 1/2″ of snow (which again is what happened in the last cycle).  There is also a trend for it to be a bit warmer on Sunday, as the Arctic blast has been trending weaker in the recent model runs.

Here is the Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Wednesday:  Cloudy.  The wind will be light and from the northeast, shifting to the east.  High: 33°
  • Wednesday Night:  Cloudy with a 60% chance of light rain-sleet-snow.  Little or no accumulation expected and temperatures will drop to near freezing.  A little accumulation would still cause some significant problems, so we will be monitoring this closely.
  • Thursday: Cloudy in the morning, with a chance of sunshine by afternoon.  High:  36°
  • Friday:  Cloudy with the wind increasing from the southeast at 10-20 mph.  High:  38°
  • Friday Night – Saturday:  Rain changing to snow, becoming heavy, and the wind increasing from the north at 20-30 mph.  Some higher gusts will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Snowfall accumulations are likely.  Temperatures dropping from the 20s into the teens. The snow will end later in the day with more blowing and drifting of the snow.
  • Sunday: Becoming sunny and brutally cold. High:  15°.  It will be dry for the Chiefs game with the wind dying down. Wind chills will be 15 below zero early in the day.

Total Eclipse Of The Moon on Sunday night:

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As the AFC Championship game goes into the end of the 4th quarter, the moon will begin to be eclipsed.  It has to be a good sign for the Chiefs, as it is a KC Wolf Blood Lunar Eclipse!  Have a great day and head over to the Weather2020 blog and share in this weather experience.  Here is the link to the Weather2020 blog:  Weather2020 Blog

Gary

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