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Two storm systems targeting our area!

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is going to get a bit more exciting in the next week.  We will see a rather substantial warm-up today into Wednesday ahead of a weak Pacific storm coming into the west coast tonight. And, then there is a much stronger storm that will dig in and develop near the west coast by the weekend.  The energy from these two systems is currently over the Pacific Ocean and as a result we have had many varying solutions:

1

The first energy source will bring a series of waves with some jet stream energy east across the Rocky Mountains and over the plains states by early Thursday morning. A rather interesting set-up for rain and thunderstorms will be developing tomorrow night and we may have some heavy showers and thunderstorms in our local area.  We will go over the details of this set-up on 41 Action News today and tonight.

After this fast moving mid-week storm moves by early Thursday morning our attention will then turn to the second energy source forming way out over the Pacific Ocean.  Let’s take a look at three model solutions for this energy valid Monday evening:

2

 

This first map, above, is from the European model. This shows an upper low ejecting across Nebraska and Iowa Monday night. If this solution is correct a snow storm, and possibly a blizzard, will be developing north of Kansas City Monday or Tuesday.  This next map, below, is from the GFS model valid at the same time:

3

The GFS model shows the ejecting upper low tracking south of Kansas City which would place our area in the potential snow, but this solution is also showing a weaker storm system. It has some support from the Canadian model:

4

 

This third solution, from the Canadian model, shows a track similar to the GFS model, and is a bit stronger, more like the European model.  In the last cycle of the LRC, go to the Weather 2020 Blog for details, this storm produced a blizzard in Iowa and clipped our area with our first inch of snow with very windy conditions.  How will it set-up this time? We have been forecasting this part of the weather pattern to return this next week for 50 days now.  Once again, the energy coming in, as you can see on the first map posted today, is way out over the Pacific Ocean. We will get many more solutions for this storm system in the coming days. We will be getting the cycle 3 version of this storm.  And, I know it will be there, but exactly where it will track and how strong it will be are two questions that I still don’t have confidence in.

Have a great day! We will go into more details on both of these storm systems on 41 Action News, and in the blog tomorrow.

Gary

 

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37 comments to Two storm systems targeting our area!

  • Kcchamps

    looks like things could get interesting next mon/tues Gary! :)

  • rred95

    Wish it wasnt a week out. The trend is it looks good a week out but never happens for us. Hard to look forward to tracking it this week knowing our history of these storms. Not trying to be negative just keeping it real.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    I tend to agree RRed. I have been watching this next system since it showed on the GFS. Like start depicted it has been cycling between the three possible solutions. It is frustrating to see it coming then it disappears or drives north or says too warm. I don’t think we will really know it’s possible track until the energy arrives on shore.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Btw, on 810 am Border Patrol, Gary stated a 90% chance of rain possible tstorms tomorrow night. He seemed pretty excited about this next week and the energy waves coming onshore.

  • mgsports

    I hope next weeks Storm stays North of KS/MO Border so were in the Warm area like 60′s and 70′s with Severe Weather not Snow because Groundhog said Spring so no more Winter Weather please.

  • Theo

    Tuesday’s storm better produce snow or winter is nighty night.

  • weatherman brad

    hey bloggers, did you foreget to tell gary something concidering that its national weatherman appreciation day. happy national weatherman appreciation day gary.

    Brad

  • mattmaisch

    Well, the path of the storm on the 12Z GFS certainly seems to favor the European Model. Looks like it stays north and west of KC by 150 miles or so.

    • Dobber

      Kinda early to worry about 150 miles

      • mattmaisch

        No question about that. I was just responding based upon the graphics Gary showed in this blog. Way to early for any real deductions, but at this juncture, all the data we have access to indicates that this storm will be north of KC. Nothing to hang your hat on right now, but rather, just an observation.

    • mowermike

      Matt,

      Sure did. But, 6-7 days away. Hopefully we get plenty of rain on the front side of the storm.

      The last time this storm came through on a previous cycle, the brunt of the snow did go north but we had a nice rain the night before and a 4 hour blizzard the next morning.

      Most if not all of our storms this year have been warm and rainy out in front and a 1-3 inch snow on the back side. This doesn’t look any different. Unless, it tracks further S and E then we’re in business early next week.

  • mowermike

    Well, if we can some how hammer out some good rainfall totals this week into early next, we may finish above average on precip. for the winter season.(Dec. Jan. Feb.)

    We average 1.43 inches in Feb. and we have the potential to see that this week into next. May all depend on where the t-storms set-up tomorrow night. There’s a potential of .40 to .80 tomorrow night, however, it looks to be a fast moving wave so that may keep us near the lower end.(hopefully not)

    Most areas of the metro are currently above average on total precip. for Dec. Jan. and Feb.(to date) KCI is currently .26 below average. (all NWS data)(4-county area)

    I have .29 inch surplus on the NW side of Liberty.

    “http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif” HPC total precip. for the next 7 days.

    I did post the same map last Monday prior to the rainfall on Tuesday and it showed .75 to 1.75 totals for the area. Some called it a wishcast, but it was right.

  • exmidwestguy

    I was curious how it looks for snow in the Colorado Rockies this coming weekend?

  • exmidwestguy

    This will be the 2nd year in row of well below normal snowpack.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    The 6z GFS showed the blended model. It really is having trouble with this and just about every other system we have had.

    I guess we are going to be on a seesaw until that one gets closer.

  • snowdayhope

    Happy National Weatherperson’s Day Gary and the wonderful Action News Weather Team. You are my go-to station everyday! Keep up the great work! Now go and find me some measurable Olathe snow in your new data!!!

  • Jerry

    This Wednesday night rain event — what event (date) happened in December…and October in the previous cycles that match this event?

  • mowermike

    Dec. 14th we had close .50 inch of rain throughout the city followed by another rain event on the 19th(also had thunderstorms with hail and rainfall amounts for some around 6/10) and then the small blizzard on the morning of Dec. 20th.(1-4 inches)

    These (2) events were 54 days ago…

  • Theo

    Not sure how 2 events happened 54 days ago. Maybe that’s how the LRC handles phantom storms (ones that don’t match). It was 1 storm over 2 days, not 2 storms.

    I’m with you Jerry. A storm Feb. 6th would be 54 days after Dec. 14th and 49 days after Dec. 19th. According to Gary, the storm next week matches the Dec. 19-20 storm. Where is the missing one? Should have been on Feb 1 (Does the LRC say to shoe-horn in the rain from Jan 29?). It’s 54 days one cycle and how many the next, exactly?

    Pretty tough sell when you have so much lee-way each “cycle”. But, I suppose true believers look past any contrary evidence. I guess as long as an event happens within 5 days, it counts? We’ve had 5-7 clippers just miss us to the north over the past week. Where were those in December?

    As far as October, good luck.

    • mowermike

      Theo,

      First off, Feb. 6th is tomorrow and we’re expecting rain tomorrow night. (54 days from Dec. 14th) The second storm of Dec. 19th-20th(yes, one storm) and that will line up with the late weekend/early next week storm(54 days again)

      “According to Gary, the storm next week matches the Dec. 19-20 storm” Correct, 53 days, should it happen on Monday, 54 days should it happen on Tuesday.

      Second, I didn’t say anything was right or forecast right, I just was answering Jerry’s question.

      • Theo

        Nothing matches the January 29 storm. And you haven’t answered Jerry’s question about October, nor mine about the clippers.

  • mowermike

    That’s because I don’t have answers for any of those. I’m not trying to prove any forecast from Gary or the LRC right, my point was that the pending storms this week(the one tomorrow night/thurs. and the one late this weekend) have very similar set-ups and look much like the pattern we had around Dec. 14th and beyond. Prior to Dec. 14th we had a record high on Dec. 3rd of 74 degrees. 11 days later we had rain.

    We just had a record high on Monday Jan. 28th….now we look to have rain 10 days after that. Looks a lot like the pattern from Dec.

    You have valid points and I have no answers for them. But, can’t you see a very similar pattern right now from Dec.??

    • Theo

      Yes, I can see the similarities. For those specific dates. That’s really my whole point.

      Cherry picking a few dates that match up is not the same as a repeating cycle. Now if 4 or 5 storms repeat over and over and over for several “cycles”, then I would be much more intrigued. One or two storms every other cycle? More like luck in my book.

      There was no storm the last 2 weeks of October. One small wave Oct. 25th.

  • mattmaisch

    18Z GFS is in.

    Good news: The storm is projected to move the 150 miles I was hoping to see.

    Bad news: It’s 150 miles in the wrong direction.

    Tough sledding around here. (Literally!)

    • Dobber

      Still several days away matt

      • mattmaisch

        Yes, I know that. Even if I didn’t know it, you already said it once earlier today. :) For me, the fun part of these storms is following the model trends. Obviously, right now, the trend is a northerly one. I’m not headed to Vegas to bet on it or anything, it’s just an observation. All I did was make a comment, certainly, it’s not a prediction.

  • cornstalk

    I predict a storm the 3rd of March and 17th of March. A also predict a storm the same dates in April, May and June. I just picked these dates off the top of my head. I bet these dates will be as accurate as the LRC. We will see. Remember a storm within a couple days either side of the dates count as a hit.

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