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Two Chances of Snow

Good Saturday bloggers,

Friday the high was 59° with a peak wind gust at KCI of 49 mph! Today will be a few degrees cooler with winds 40 mph less, so we are looking at a very nice day.

This weather can’t last forever this time of year, no matter what the LRC has in store for us. There is a change tomorrow night as colder air arrives with a small disturbance. It is the first of our two chances of the snow the next seven days. Remember, as you read this blog that our average snowfall per event since February 4, 2014 is 0.8″.

We are sitting about 6″ of snow below average so far for this time of year. How much will we add to the season total the next 7 days?

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Let’s go through this change and show our latest thinking for the next two snow chances.

SATURDAY: The weather will be quite nice with highs in the 50s and winds from the west and southwest at 5-15 mph.

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TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING: It will be calm and clear with lows mostly in the 30s, a few locations will drop to the upper 20s.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: This is when we we will see a change, as a strong, not Arctic front, moves in along with a small disturbance. Clouds will rapidly increase from the north and rain showers will be possible with temperatures ranging from the 30s north to 50s south.  KC will be 45°-50°. Snowflakes will likely be around the Iowa border.

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SUNDAY LATER EVENING: The weather will change quickly as temperatures drop to the 30s as colder air moves in. The rain showers shift south as an area of snow occurs from around the Kansas-Missouri state line eastward to Illinois. Temperatures will likely be at or above freezing at the western edge of the snow, so no accumulation is expected in these locations. A dusting to 1″ is not out of the question from northern to central Missouri. It is a small system and we will see how it exactly tracks as a shift east or west by 50 miles will make quite a difference.

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MONDAY MORNING: The little system will be exiting Missouri as temperatures drop to the lows 20s. Now, we have not seen much snow this year, but we have seen black ice. And, this may be a case for black ice Monday morning if we get enough moisture Sunday evening. Right now we are looking at a trace to .10″ liquid. So, this will be something to watch tomorrow.

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THURSDAY: The second chance of snow the next seven days arrives Thursday along with a surge of Arctic air. The latest data has the system getting it’s act together from northwest Kansas to southern Missouri, bypassing KC, bringing our area nothing to perhaps 1″ of snow.  Now, we still have to watch this as it could form faster and farther north before moving away. If this happens, we could see the unthinkable, the biggest snow in four years! Let’s not get too excited and be realistic, but at the same time, let’s keep an eye on the new data.

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Again, we have had 40 days of measurable snow since February 4, 2014 with a total of 32″. This puts our snow system average at 0.8″.  It is not easy to bring the average down, but we may just do that the next seven days.

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This is the latest thinking on the TOTAL snowfall the next 7 days. Yes, that is a 0.4″ for KC. If this happens, in 2 total snows we will bring the per snow event average of 0.8″ down! That is hard to believe. The system for Sunday evening and night has little chance of being more, but the Thursday system does have a chance. We shall see what we shall see.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

 

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2 comments to Two Chances of Snow

  • sedsinkc

    The math details on Kansas City’s ridiculously low average snowfall per event: If we have two measurable events the next week totaling 0.4 inches, our average snowfall per event for the last 42 events totaling 32.4″ would be 0.77 inches. If we have one measurable event totaling 0.4 inches, our avg snowfall per event for 41 events totaling 32.4″ would be 0.79 inches.

  • sedsinkc

    My winter forecast made in November on Gary’s other blog is so far on track…overall near average temperatures due to large, frequent fluctuations between very cold and warm; below average precip, below average snow. Only question is if we’ll get the 12 to 14 inches I predicted. February better produce better than January did or else my snowfall prediction will bust (but not as bad as others)