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Two Calm Days, then a Four Day Storm

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are in for two days without precipitation and temperatures at or a bit below average. The bottom line is that we are in for two consecutive tolerable weather days. It has been awhile. The streak of nice weather will end at two days as our next storm approaches. The storm Saturday was in and out in about 12 hours. This next storm will be in and out in around 4 days!

We can see the storm evolving on the west coast of the USA. There is a piece of energy near San Francisco and another piece west of Los Angeles. These pieces will come together to become a slow moving storm in the southwest USA. They are picking up tropical moisture from the south Pacific Ocean as well, so this is going to be a wet storm.

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TODAY: We will have periods of high clouds with highs 40°-45°. The wind will be much less at 5-15 mph as opposed to the 45 mph wind gusts on Saturday.

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MONDAY: We are in for another nice March day as highs climb to around the average of 50°. The wind will remain light. You can see by 5 PM, the leading edge of the rain is across southern Kansas.

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TUESDAY: The rain arrives early Tuesday morning. This day will see periods of rain, heavy at times, and a few thunderstorms with highs in the 40s. South winds will push warmer air north, so Tuesday night we will see temperatures rise into the 50s.

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WEDNESDAY: This is going to be an interesting day as the main storm lifts out strong into the Plains. A deep surface low will be found in southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas with a surface pressure as low as 28.85″! The low will track into southern Kansas and then northeast into Iowa. It will weaken a bit as it moves northeast. A large area of heavy rain and thunderstorms (some severe) will form in the western Plains Tuesday night then head east. It will be weaker as it moves through here midday Wednesday. That being said, we could still see very heavy rain and winds gusting to 40-50 mph. The best chance of severe weather will be well south, but we need to keep an eye on this.

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THURSDAY: The storm will be lifting into the Great Lakes, putting us on the back side. This means windy and colder weather with rain, and yes, some snow snow showers. We do not expect accumulation, but it shows we are not done with the snow.

Friday will be cloudy, breezy and cold followed by a dry and cool St. Patrick’s day weekend.

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Here is the rainfall forecast Tuesday-Thursday for our next storm. You can see this is going to be a widespread 1″ to 2″ event for much of the Plains. Some locations will see 2″ to 3″ of rain. The heaviest totals will move around, based on where thunderstorms track. The bottom line, this is a wet storm and will bring some nice moisture to the Hard Red Winter Wheat areas of the western Plains.

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Here are forecast totals in our area. Keep in mind two things. One, the heaviest totals are subject to change, based on thunderstorms. Two, we average 2.37″ of rain for the entire month of March. So, in the heaviest areas, all of March totals may be realized in three days.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

 

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