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Tropical Storm Harvey, The Eclipse, & Forecast Thoughts

Good morning, It’s FRIDAY!

The eclipse is just three days away, unless you watched us on TV last night and heard my cohost try to say it is only two days away. I tried to explain that tomorrow is Saturday, that is one day, and Sunday is two days away, so Monday is three days away, which of course we all know who was right, but she insisted. I will try to explain again on 41 Action News tonight, and you can watch my Facebook.com/garylezak live at 9 PM tonight and we will discuss the eclipse forecast, the tropics and more.  Anyway, take a look at this mornings enhanced water vapor satellite picture:

Screen Shot 2017-08-18 at 8.17.35 AM

Tropical Storm Harvey has formed east of the islands. If you remember, we forecasted 55 days before the eclipse day that there would likely be a tropical storm or hurricane forming on the week of the eclipse and here it is right on schedule. It is no coincidence. There is another system north of Harvey worth monitoring as well, but that system has some northerly shear over the top of it at the moment. Harvey has a better chance for development, but it is way to the south.  Take a look at where the European Model finally shows a system tracking later next week:

Screen Shot 2017-08-18 at 8.09.00 AM

This model has not had any system for a few days now, but last nights run picked up on it. There are other models that bring this into the Gulf of Mexico, whereas the GFS model doesn’t have any system. The models have been horrible all year, so let’s just keep monitoring this day by day.

The weather for the eclipse is looking a bit better right now. Yes, clouds will likely be around Monday. I will go more in-depth on television tonight, in the blogs over the weekend, and on Facebook and twitter as well. You can follow me on twitter at GLezak, or like my Facebook page with my full name.  Have a great weekend and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis and Weather2020.com.

Gary

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