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Tropical Storm Harvey Makes Another Landfall

Good morning bloggers,

Louisiana had not had a landfalling tropical storm in five years, since Hurricane Isaac in 2012.  Texas and Louisiana is in this years tropical storm hot spot and until the new pattern sets up according to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis in October we have concerns that there will be another threat or two in the next two to four weeks. The new pattern takes over around the first week of October.  Tropical Storm Harvey made landfall just southwest of Cameron, Louisiana but guess what, it wasn’t Harvey that broke the five year streak without a landfalling tropical storm.  It was Tropical Storm Cindy that broke that streak in June.  And, even more incredibly Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall just a few miles from where Harvey just moved inland.  They literally made landfall at almost the same exact location, within a few miles.

There is a location near Houston that officially had over 50 inches of rain setting the United States record for rainfall from a tropical system.  Houston better not get hit again, but I have rather big concerns that it could very well be the target in this season again.  Just like 103rd and Wornall in Kansas City has had two 100 year floods in the past month, this pattern is capable of producing repeat huge events in similar locations.   I just have concerns.

The remnants of Harvey are now moving inland and heading directly towards Tennessee, which is exactly where Cindy tracked after moving inland.  This is why last week, while not one computer model had Harvey forecast to move into Tennessee, we had the highest confidence that it would using knowledge of the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.  Here is one forecast that I showed last night:

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Now, look at last nights GFS model forecast:

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The remnants of Harvey are forecast to be quite strong with a surface circulation that actually intensifies and centered right over Tennessee. You can also see a tropical system near Cabo san Lucas over the souther part of the Gulf of California and Baja California.   A large high pressure area is located just north of the Great Lakes and it has expanded southwest ridging into KC. This has provided many areas with a spectacular ending to August.

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Look at that rainfall total. Kansas City is over 10 inches of rain above average after a 10″ August. What lies ahead in September. We will take a look in tomorrows blog. Have a great day and thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis. Go to Weather2020.com and join in the conversation if you want to participate or have any questions.

Gary

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