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Tricky 4th of July Forecast

Good Sunday bloggers,

The forecast between this afternoon and Wednesday is quite a challenge, not in the fact that rain is likely, but on the timing and coverage.  So, let’s go through this forecast.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

Now to 3 PM: Dry with highs warming to the mid and upper 80s.

3 PM to Midnight: 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms as temperatures drop to the low 70s.  Below is the radar from 8:25 AM Sunday and the thunderstorms in KS will most likely not reach us, but the area in southeast Nebraska and far northern Missouri must be watched for this 3 PM to midnight time frame. It is showing signs of wanting to drop southeast.

radar

Monday: 40%  chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This day is looking a bit drier than it has in past runs of data.

4th of July: 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.  It is not set in stone that fireworks time will be a wash out.

Here is the upper level flow for Tuesday-Wednesday.  You can see a small system near KC and the anticyclone, “heat wave creating machine”, in the southwest USA which may have an impact on our weather in about 7 days, but first we are dealing with a small storm system forming over Missouri.

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Here is a close in version of the above upper level flow.  You can see the system is right near KC on Wednesday, which means it is close enough on Tuesday to impact the fourth.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Our data shows just a few showers and thunderstorms around, but the coverage may be a bit higher, especially from KC north and northwest.  Highs will be in the 80s.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: There will likely be small clusters of thunderstorms roaming the Plains and this data has the location to the west of KC.  These clusters could easily be located 100 miles farther east or west from the location shown below.

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MONDAY MORNING: It looks like the thunderstorm clusters will be moving away, but this does not mean some rain won’t be lingering around.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON:  We will be turning our attention to the next chances of showers and thunderstorms as the next series of disturbances head this way.  This data has the next thunderstorm area to the north, but again, it may be just about anywhere within 100-200 miles of KC.  The reason this is such a difficult forecast is that thunderstorms will be formed by any disturbance moving by and since there are numerous disturbances to track it makes it hard to pick out the best rain locations more than 6-12 hours in advance.

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4TH OF JULY DAYTIME: The areas of rain may become more widespread as the main system approaches.  The timing and location of the best chances of rain will be determined on Tuesday as again the forecast is a challenge.

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4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS TIME: The main system will be rather close, so rain is likely, but again if the upper low is a bit faster, or in a different location, then the best rain areas will shift around and it could be dry Tuesday evening.  This is why we want to say, “don’t push the panic button yet”, but that being said we have big concerns for a wet 4th of July.

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FIREWORKS FORECAST: Right now we are at at 40% chance of thunderstorms for the evening of the fourth.  This is highly subject to change as we have discussed above.

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Rainfall totals through Wednesday will likely be 1″ to 4″.  The exact location of the heaviest rain is still uncertain. but let’s hope it is not located in northern Missouri.

Have a happy and safe 4th of July weekend.  Don’t drink and drive and keep an eye to the sky.

Jeff Penner

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4 comments to Tricky 4th of July Forecast

  • Richard

    Testing

  • Richard

    Testing again

  • Dobber

    Nice write up Jeff. Thank you

  • Richard

    Well how about that. Looks like my comments passed the test.
    Thanks
    So if I do not log out then I won’t have to put password in every time ?
    Would have been nice to just use name and email like the 2020 blog.

    The WordPress thing makes me wonder what info they are gathering.
    This is only the 3rd site that I belong to. Facebook, 2020 blog now this one.
    Too much is online. I like to stay old school as much as I can.

    Ok, thanks for the writeup today Jeff. Much appreciated !