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Trick or treat!

Good morning bloggers,

On this Halloween we are completing another dry month. Kansas City had 1.08″ this month compared to an average of 3.16″. Last year we had 0.22″, but then in November we had almost five inches of rain in 2011. Right now there is no sign of anything like that happening.

Superstorm Sandy is finally lifting north and will exit the northeast during the next 48 horus.  There has been a lot of talk about Global Climate Change and this storm.  One storm may not indicate that the climate is changing or be a symptom of a warming earth, but the frequency of these events over years would be a much bigger story. To have a hurricane blast into the Jersey Shore and combine with a developing larger scale storm to produce such a monster storm system with a hurricane and a blizzard happening at the same time, would be a type of storm that would have sounded just like an exaggeration years ago. 

What do you think?

Have a great day. I have been in meetings all day, so I am sorry about the late finishing of this short blog today.

Gary

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16 comments to Trick or treat!

  • hrbrbldrs

    Well there may be no signs now for a wetter November, and since it has been a while since we had a wet month, I can understand thinking it won’t be wet. BUT there was no one saying August is going to below normal for temp, only -0.02 but hey it was a whole lot cooler then July. Then September comes and no one saying yes we will have our second straight month below normal, temps again, only -0.06. Not much but below. Then it appears October will be below normal as well, as far as temps goes. As of yesterday October -1.6. All these temps of course recorded as KCI, places like Saint Joseph much cooler in August, September and October. So as much as I enjoy weather, of all kinds (but really like cold and wet, rain & snow), and as much as I don’t envy the job of weatherman, I will take what they see in the long range with not a lot of thought. Here is to hoping the drought will break and cold will kill bugs and stuff. One final thought for all you winter haters that like warm dry winters be careful for what you wish for. We need all seasons to “behave”

  • Fred Souder

    I am having problems accessing this blog, and not all of my comments are being posted. Anyone else having this problem?

  • Fred Souder

    Gary: from yesterday’s blog…
    I would like to see your winter predictions for precipitation types and amounts, and temperatures. I also would like to hear your rationale for these predictions, including the LRC. However, with only 3 minutes, you won’t be able to get into a lot of detail. So, I would like for you to post a blog entry (as you have done in the past), with an in-depth discussion of the LRC and how you use it to determine long range patterns.

  • mukustink

    Fred yes the blog is very sloooooowwww to access. It’sbeen like this for several days now. I updated my email address in order to receive a response from Gary on the LRC website and the fact that it looks like it’s no longer a business venture to make money. I had asked the same question that Jerry asked yesterday and was hoping for a response from Gary but for some reason I am awaiting moderation now.

  • yewtrees

    Where is the blog update, Gary?

  • greek

    It’s way too dry and it’s too warm as well. So will it be this winter and into next year. See you in the Fall of 2013 when a new LRC finally arrives. Bye now.

  • Fred Souder

    If you look at the data, you will find that hurricane frequency and total dissipated energy has decreased over the years, not increased. This is true despite a much better ability to detect them (many past storms out to sea were probably not categorized if they were away from shipping lanes). Ditto tornadoes. If you are interested in this, I can submit links to the articles that show this. It is unfortunate that every big storm, be it a blizzard or a tornado outbreak, is labeled as “unprecedented” and “much worse because of global warming”. It is hard to just look at the data when it gives you an answer that is not what you want to hear.

    • gabe

      Well said Fred. Those pushing “climate change” seem to ignore history…or at least shorten the timeline to their own memory.

      As an example. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane – “Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.”

      29 feet is more than twice what I can find from Sandy in NJ…which hit very close to high tide.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    I can’t believe I am actually saying this, but we have a shot at this year being the DRIEST ON RECORD for Kansas City! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/drought/oct252012/preciptotals.png

    If we stay under 1.50″ for the next 60 days we will achieve this record. We are running between 12-15″ below normal. I wish it would rain, I am tired of watering my new grass that I planted in my yard 3 weeks ago or so. You should water your new grass, even though the cold temperatures have made it go dormant. Happy Halloween Everybody!

  • mukustink

    Is there a reason I’m on moderation?

  • trinlivco

    Gary, Saw your forcast at 6:00P.M tonight. Sure hope your right about a change in the pattern in a week or so. Just wish mother nature would trick or treat us with some much needed rain and lots of it. Sometimes I get a little testy with all this dry weather but I know its not your fault, just wish this dry pattern would break. Thanks TR

  • dogsinkc

    Well the precip might not be normal, but at least the temps are. See any 40s for highs in the near future, weather team?

  • gabe

    5 hrs later and my comment is still awaiting moderation. Yet 2 others have been approved since. Who says climate change isn’t manipulated.

    “Well said Fred. Those pushing “climate change” seem to ignore history…or at least shorten the timeline to their own memory.

    As an example. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane – “Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.”

    29 feet is more than twice what I can find from Sandy in NJ…which hit very close to high tide.”

  • kobecobra76

    For the the winter forecast: I would like to know how the AO, the melting arctic icecap and climate change factor into the LRC.