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Tracking Thunderstorm Chances, One Day at a Time

Good Sunday bloggers,

This has been, so far, the nicest weekend since September 30-October 1. Today will be a bit different than Saturday. It will be slightly warmer, with a bit more wind and during the afternoon there will be more clouds and the chance for a brief shower. Then, we will turn our attention to the chance of severe thunderstorms Monday-Thursday. We will take it one day at a time as each day will have a different set up to some extent.

SUNDAY MORNING: There was a weak disturbance in central Kansas during the morning. This system will be located across eastern Kansas and western Missouri between 2 PM and 5 PM as it weakens. This means there will be more clouds with the chance of a sprinkle and/or brief shower. I would not cancel any outdoor plans.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: You can see the band of clouds with a few showers/sprinkles moving across the area with highs around 70°. The wind will be increasing from the southeast with gusts to 25-30 mph.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be forming across the western Plains. A few thunderstorms may be severe, but Gulf moisture is limited, so this does not look like a big event. These thunderstorms will fall apart long before they would reach eastern Kansas.

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MONDAY: This is the day where the Gulf of Mexico moisture begins a trek north on south winds gusting to 35-45 mph. Highs will be around 80° around here and in the 80s across western Kansas. A few severe thunderstorms may form in the western Plains Monday evening.

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TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: This is where we have the juicy Gulf of Mexico moisture in place with a front stalled from northwest Kansas to Wisconsin. The front will be the main focus for heavy and severe thunderstorms. The data has been trending this to be closer to I-80 than I-70. There will be a chance for a few severe thunderstorms near the surface low and dry line.

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WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: The triple point, where the cold front, dry line and warm/stationary front meet will be located over northwest Kansas. It looks like the biggest activity will be found across Nebraska and Iowa with scattered severe thunderstorms from the surface low south to along the dry line. The main upper level storm system will still be in the southwest USA, so the dry line and surface low are not moving much. If any thunderstorms form along the dry line, they could reach our area Wednesday night in a weakened state. And, just like Tuesday we will need to keep an eye on the location of the stationary front. As is, the main activity is north of our area.

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THURSDAY: This is, as it stands now, when the best chance for heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms occurs for eastern Kansas and Missouri. We need the rain, but the severe weather we can live with out.

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This is going to be an interesting week of weather and I would be shocked if the streak of zero tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma continues. We will take it one day at a time.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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