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Tracking good chances for rain Sunday

Another day where the clouds have held on right over the KC area. However, that hasn’t kept the temps down as much; we’ve managed to sneak into the lower 80s so far. But take a look at the visible satellite image.
VISSAT

A fair amount of sunshine across the greater 7/8s of Kansas this afternoon. This is helping lead to an unstable atmosphere. As such, a t-storm watch is already in place over Western Kansas and most of Central Nebraska until 10p.
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I expect strong t-storms to develop and move across the Sunflower & Cornhusker states this evening into the early overnight period. Will they make it to KC? I don’t think the severe weather will, but I do believe some rain and a few storms will make it to us by around 5/6am. Latest trend on the models, however, is very similar to last night: breaking down the activity right before it gets to the KS/MO state line. Why? Part of the reason is the atmosphere is more stable here thanks to the clouds holding on longer today. We don’t have enough energy available to fuel strong storms. So much like a car sputters when it runs out of gas, so too will these storms. But that does not mean we will not get rain. Best window appears to be between about 5:30a and 7:30a.

A quick glance at the latest HRRR model for 8p tonight, with what it believes the radar will look like:
HRRR SatPM
It depicts the line of rain & storms moving directly East overnight, but hitting the brakes as it approaches the state line. This would be for 5am Sunday.
HRRRSUNAM
Some may not be happy if this pans out, as it would lead to very small rain amounts.

If you’re curious, this is what the RPM has for about 2am:
RPM SAT PM

And then for 6am:
RPM SUNAM

So you can see the overall trend here is for these storms to loose their steam as they progress East overnight. I will keep eyes on it and give updates as needed. I will also be very intent on watching how storms *RE* develop on Sunday afternoon. Yes, storms may fire back up around Noon and linger into the afternoon. This, however, is dependent on what all happens Sunday morning. If we get enough leftover rain and clouds, it could lessen the chance for afternoon storms to refire. Nonetheless, this is what our powercast is showing for Sunday afternoon.
1 PM

As for tonight, if you’re making plans for the various outdoor events, this is what to expect.The Royals play at 6:10p tonight. Clouds should be giving way to a little more sunshine and overall, a great night for a game.

ROYALS

A few big concerts at the Starlight Theatre tonight.
2 PM

And here’s a look at the state fair forecast in Sedalia.
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Going into next week, I still expect a cold front to push through which will hold our daytime highs in the lower 80s. Heading into the middle of August, it could always be a lot hotter. So far this summer has been pretty tame. Not that many will complain about that!

Hope you all have a wonderful evening and those that want/need the rain, get it. But no promises!
-JD

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