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Tracking A Storm & The AFC Championship Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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A storm system will be developing tonight and Friday, and then begin affecting Kansas City.  This will be a storm that tracks from the Rocky Mountains, out into the plains, and then to off the New England coast by Monday.  There will be some significant impacts and there are still a lot of questions to be answered.

Snowfall Forecast From The FV3 GFS Model Ending Sunday Night:

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The snowfall amount forecast is from the FV3 GFS model, which has been the most consistent in the past two days. This shows 1″ to 8″ amounts across the KC viewing area, and over a foot from eastern Indiana to inland areas of New England.  For KC, the amount of snow will depend on a few factors that are still undetermined.  There will be a rain/snow line that will track across the region as you can see below:

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This map shows that rain/snow changeover line is near downtown KC at 11 PM Friday night.  There is a cold air mass that will be heading south, and if it is a bit faster, then amounts will be higher.  The strength and track of the upper level storm will help answer these questions. Important:  In the last LRC cycle (the pattern is cycling and Weather2020 uses this technology called LRC) this part of the pattern produced a major winter storm with blizzard conditions north of KC by around a state. It was an impacting storm in KC with around an inch of rain and then around 1/2″ of snow.  It could do exactly the same thing, with one big difference in the fact that it is tracking farther south in this January version of the cycling pattern.  In the previous cycle, the storm intensified stronger than any of the computer models were projecting and it was a very strong upper level low over Kansas.  If this storm comes out into the plains a bit stronger, it will be capable of creating two to four extra hours of snow, and it would slow the storm down just a bit. This two to four hours of snow extra would make the difference between some areas only getting 1/2″ of snow again to 3 to 4 additional inches of snow. The FV3 GFS model was the strongest solution and this is why amounts were a bit higher.

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I am expecting close to an inch liquid again.  Depending on where you live, that rain/snow changeover line will be important, and likely the difference in receiving around an inch or possibly much more.  Temperatures will be dropping into the 20s Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly all the way down to around 15 degrees. This will zap some of the moisture content out of the snow, but it will initially be a wet snow again and stick to everything when it first starts falling. Eventually it will become fluffier and blow around.

There is a lot to discuss. GO CHIEFS!  And, thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to Weather2020.com and check out our new website when you get a chance.

Gary

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