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Tough Weekend Forecast and Drought Update

Good Saturday bloggers,

We have had a few showers overnight with most of the rain, trace to .25″, south of I-70. We had a cold front move through Friday and it has put all locations in the 40s. This front will head north today and then stall in the area. This is going to make for a tough weekend forecast as the the temperature you experience will depend on the location of the front.

SATURDAY: The front will be stalled near I-70 by afternoon. Temperatures will range from the 40s in northern Missouri to 70s south of KC. It looks like the I-70 corridor will see temperatures in the 60s. As you can see a shift by 50 miles north or south of the front will make a big difference in each location. There will be a few showers and T-Storms along and north of the front.

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SUNDAY MORNING:  The front will remain near I-70, so lows will be in the 50s north to 60s south. Showers will move across northern Missouri.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Look at the temperature forecast across the region. It will be in the 50s across northern Missouri to 70s and 80s from around I-70 south. It does look like KC will be in the warmer air, but the north extent of the warmth is a bit unknown. KC will see highs between  75° and 83°. If the front is a bit farther north, then KC will see highs in the 80s across all locations. A few showers will be found in northern Missouri.

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Now let’s switch to the drought. This is pretty amazing as the worst of the drought is in the Kansas City metropolitan area, more specifically Wyandotte county.

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Officially, at KCI we are over 6″ below average rainfall for 2018.

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How much rain will it take for us to catch up by the end of 2018? Let’s do the math. We are 6.49″ below average. October through December average 6.84″ of rain. So, 6.49″ + 6.84″ = 13.33″ of rain to catch up.

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A new pattern is on the verge of setting up. But, no matter what pattern sets up, it is going to be quite hard to catch up by New Year’s Eve.

Here is the upper level flow for the end of next week and there is a trough in the western USA which is something we never really saw during the last year. This will set us up for a decent rain event, but let’s see how this evolves as it is the start of a new pattern.

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Have a great weekend.

Jeff Penner

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