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Total Eclipse Weather Forecast: 55-Days Out

Good Tuesday evening bloggers,

The weather pattern is setting up for some interesting weather across the plains in this next week. We will go over the set-ups in just a second. Let’s begin with our long rang weather forecast issued 55 days before the total eclipse of the sun that will be experienced in north Kansas City.  Watch the video closely and you can see what happened with the weather 58, 58.5, and 59 days before this big astronomical event. Here is the video:

Total Eclipse 55 Day Weather Forecast from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

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There will be a total eclipse of the sun for spectacular viewing across the United States. Astronomers are likely the best forecasters in the world and they don’t get enough credit. They know exactly when the eclipse will happen in your location down to the second. Is there a way to know what the weather will most likely be along the eclipse path 55 days before this spectacular event? Yes there is, and let me explain how and we will provide the forecast for the path.

Our Weather Forecasts are most likely going to be accurate from 1 day up to 300 days into the future. I presented the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis at the recent American Meteorological Society’s Broadcast conference in Kansas City last week. We have been developing this breakthrough technology for 30 years now. The weather pattern is cycling and regularly. We know what the pattern will likely look like on August 21st. The pattern that just cycled through around June 23rd and 24th will be returning on the day of the eclipse as we are in a roughly 58 to 59 day cycle. This is pretty good news as most of the eclipse path is likely going to have some good conditions with just a few clouds that may cause a problem. There is one area from Nebraska southeast to Tennessee that has the best chance of cloud cover as you can see on our forecast map.

The eclipse path stretches from near Portland, Oregon arching east and southeast across the northern Rocky Mountains of Wyoming. The path then crosses near Kansas City to Nashville, Tennessee, then southeast across South Carolina. You do not need to be in the center of the path. There is around a 75 mile wide area where the viewing will be similar. It will just last longer near the center of this path.

If there are clouds, then monitor that days weather closely and you can always take a ride to the most likely areas that will have better viewing. Most of the path is going to have great weather conditions according to our 55-day forecast.

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The Wednesday-Thursday severe weather risks will need to be watched closely. This storm is directly related to the part of the pattern that did already produce a severe weather outbreak two cycles ago on March 6th.  We will keep track of our 55-day forecasts on Weather2020, but let’s get down to the next couple of days.  Let’s look at the weather set-up for the next couple of days.

Wednesday’s Weather Set-Up

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. There will be a capping layer aloft over Kansas after the morning thunderstorms move by, and it appears this will be a rather stout cap preventing thunderstorms from redeveloping south of the frontal boundaries.

Where are the fronts and wind shift lines? Are they strong enough to trigger thunderstorms and break the cap?

On this mesoscale analysis of the HRRR model, it is rather obvious to me that the very weak wind shift line drawn in with the red dashed line over Kansas in to northwest Missouri is not strong enough to break the cap during the afternoon hours. By sunset it will likely break the cap with a few thunderstorms being generated by 9 PM.

The SPC has this outlook today:

Once thunderstorms do form, then we can see if they get organized. My forecast right now is for it to struggle until after sunset near that red dashed line.

Thursday’s Weather Set-Up

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Thursday is certainly looking quite volatile but again we will likely be battling with a cap farther south.  There will likely be a warm front near northern Missouri.  A low pressure area will be forming farther west, and there is a strong storm system aloft tracking across the northern plains. A disturbance will rotate around this stronger upper level storm and severe thunderstorms will likely be the result.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A few morning showers and thunderstorms will be rather spotty with most areas staying dry. If you get under one of these stray showers or thunderstorms it will only produce a few hundredths of an inch of rain and then move out fairly quickly. The wind will blow from the south at 10-25 mph. The sun will come out by this afternoon with a high of 88°
  • Tonight:  Thunderstorms may form way up near the Iowa and Nebraska borders. The rest of the area stays dry through midnight. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
  • Thursday: There is a slight chance of a morning thunderstorm, then dry most of the day with a high of 90° and south winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts. The severe weather risk is most likely in Iowa and Nebraska, but we have to see how it sets up.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Let us know if you have any questions. We will be opening comments on this blog next week. In the mean time you can join in the conversation on Weather2020.

Gary

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