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Total Eclipse Day Has Arrived With A Few Clouds

Good morning bloggers,

Let’s begin with the good news.  Remember what rule #1 of weather forecasting is: Always look outside because you never know!  Rule #2 is look at the satellite and radar and see what is happening and what has been happening in the past few minutes and hours.  Then, look at the computer models is rule #3. Then make up your own mind, which is what we do for you on 41 Action News and on Weather2020.com.  Most forecasters make the mistake of looking at the computer models first and then believing them and thus not making up their own mind. So, they use rule #3 before rules #1 and #2, which is why so many forecasts end up wrong and inaccurate.  So, let’s begin with rule #1:

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Sunny The Weather Dog shows us that the cloud cover is thin and right now it would be almost perfect for the eclipse. But, this is still a few hours away from the beginning of the eclipse which will reach totality on the north side of KC around 1:08 PM.  Let’s now do rule #2:

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There is a tropical disturbance moving northeast across Kansas. This has produced an area of rain as you can see below:

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I am not that concerned with this area of rain over Kansas as it is the type of system that will weaken during the morning, but at the same time it is there and we have to monitor it closely.  What would usually happens with this type of weak system would be for it to fall apart and the clouds would then break up and slowly dissipate.  This would be perfect for most of our region.  So, it is looking good.

Now back to rule #1, which needs to be done every few minutes:

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These clouds formed while I was writing this blog entry. Do you see why you must always use rule #1? And, yes, that is a small thunderstorm over southern Johnson county. I made the argument last week that a few morning showers and thunderstorms would actually be a good thing. When these fall apart later this morning, there is a good chance that the sinking air will then provide even better conditions for the eclipse. I am just looking for that silver lining.

Rule #3 is looking at the models, and they have trended into a pretty good viewing day for the eclipse. We just will likely have a few clouds around that could affect the viewing a bit, but it may also add to the experience. We will just have to enjoy it anyway it happens as we can’t control the weather. Rule #4 is make up your own mind. I am forecasting very good conditions in most areas for the eclipse viewing. The weather pattern did set up almost exactly as we forecasted using the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis from 55 days ago.  Another incredible forecast from Weather2020.

Thunderstorms tonight:

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The National Weather Service has a Flash Flood Watch that will go into effect tonight.  There will be a slow moving cold front interacting with some high levels of humidity and heat today. 1″ to 5″ of rain are likely in the KC viewing area tonight. Where will it exactly set up?  This potential flooding event will target areas north of I-70 first and then by around 10 PM to 1 AM the risk will shift to south of I-70.  We will pick out the exact locations on the air later today and tonight.

I am on my way up to Liberty, MO to view the eclipse from South Valley Middle School.  We will be reporting from all over the area on our special at noon today.  Have a great day. We will update the blog later today after the eclipse.  Thank you for sharing in this weather experience!  Go to Weather2020.com to join in the conversation.

Gary

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