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Tornado Season Has Only One Month Left

Good morning bloggers,

Traditional Tornado Alley has had a very quiet severe weather season thus far, even though there has been no lack of storm systems and rain.  It has just been too cool thus far.  Iowa has yet to have one tornado in 2019.  And, Kansas City has yet to have a Tornado Watch:

2019_torww_to_date

As you can see above, Tornado Alley has been very quiet when it comes to a lot of things so far this season. And, tornado watches have yet to be issued from Kansas City northward in 2019.  There have been a few severe thunderstorm watches as you can see below, in fact tornado alley is more apparent by looking at the severe thunderstorm watches:

2019_svrww_to_date

Severe Weather Reports as of today:

2019_annual_map_all

This can and likely will change fast in the next two weeks.  Her is the climatology for tornadoes on May 15th:

136

Why would I say tornado season has only one month left?  By June 15th, the average position of the jet stream shifts north, and with it the conditions favorable for tornadoes decreases after around the middle of June and shifts into the northern plains.  There are still occasional chances during the summer months, and there are still severe weather risks. It is just that the frequency and strength of tornadoes usually dramatically falls off as summer begins.

The Developing Pattern:

day3otlk_0730

The risk of severe weather over the plains will be increasing Friday into Saturday, and then early next week as well.  The day 3 risk, shown above, still has some big questions surrounding it, and then there are two storm systems that will move out over the plains states with risks shifting north and east, and then backing up to the west as the next storm approaches.

1

This surface map above shows Friday’s set up, and the map below shows the set up for Saturday.  This set up would once again have rain cooled air affecting the instability near KC. Now, it is still quite undetermined.

2

The Monday storm is looking much more impressive:

3

There is some blocking going on over Canada and the jet stream is being forced stronger and farther south.  A series of strong storm systems is about to interact with high humidity, the low level fuel for thunderstorms from the Gulf of Mexico, which will lead to some significant severe weather risks.  I still need another day of analyzing before I get too specific.  Storm chasers are likely flocking out to traditional tornado alley as these set ups approach!

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. We hope you are enjoying the daily conversation!  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog and let’s track these development.

Gary

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