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Ton of Rain and Two Cold Fronts

Good Sunday bloggers,

The weather played out pretty much as we expected with a significant rain event without much severe weather.  Let’s look back at this heavy rainfall event and look ahead to two cold fronts and a changing pattern.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall totals from the last 24 hours with the severe weather reports on top of the rainfall estimates. There were five tornado reports in southwest Oklahoma with most reports being wind and hail.  Eastern Kansas and western Missouri had very few severe weather reports, but there was quite a bit of rain.

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Here are some radar estimated rainfall totals. Since these are estimates, your rain gauge may read different.

Rainfall from around Topeka, KS to Maryvile, MO to Bethany, MO was about 1″ to 2.25″.

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The heaviest rain occurred from southeast of Emporia, KS to Lawrence, KS to Platte county.  Rainfall amounts ranged from 2.50″ to 5″  in this band.  This is incredible when you realize that the entire month of October averages 3.16″.

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Here is a closer version of the heavier rainfall totals.  We were able to find a 5.50″ southeast of Lawrence, KS and a 4.90″ near Leavenworth, KS. Note, the map above has 3.20″ north of downtown KC, while the map below has 2″.  Well, look close and the 2″ amount is much closer to downtown, while the one above is farther north.

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Now let’s turn our attention to the week ahead and two cold fronts, one of which looks pretty strong.

SUNDAY: The sky will clear from west to east allowing temperatures to rise to the low and mid 60s.  It will be warmer to the west due to the sun being out longer.

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MONDAY: Cold front #1 of the week moves through during the day.  There will be no rain, but there will be an increase in the wind during the afternoon with highs in the 60s.

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TUESDAY:  A storm system will form in the Great Lakes and we will see scattered clouds, quite a bit of wind and highs in the low to mid 50s after lows in the 40s.  Yes, there may be a few snowflakes in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin.

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Here is the upper level flow for the next seven days and this will take us to cold front #2.

The flow today shows the wet Saturday system moving across Arkansas as a new trough drops southeast towards the Midwest.

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TUESDAY: There will be an upper low over the Great Lakes and an upper high on the west coast.  This means no rain for California with windy and cool weather in the middle of the USA and a wet storm system in the eastern USA and Great Lakes.

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FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A second, deeper trough will drop in to the Great Lakes/Midwest.  As is, this means a windy and colder end of the week and weekend for our area.  The chance of our first freeze is high and we could see a snowflake as a snowstorm occurs in the upper Midwest. The position of the trough is still a bit uncertain as it could form farther west.  If this happens we could have a storm with the cold or before the cold as opposed to just clouds and wind.

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The average first freeze dates in KC is October 11-20, so we would be about 1-2 weeks late on the timing of the first freeze if this plays out as we are depicting.

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Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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