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Timing Of The Front Is Critical

Good evening bloggers, and Happy Friday Night In The Big Town!

The timing of the cold front is varying from model run to model run, and this is a very important factor for where the heaviest rain from the thunderstorms will be located.  The new data is coming in late this afternoon and I am about to come on the air at 4 PM.  I will be showing this comparison on our weathercasts at 4, 5, and 6 PM.

  • Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, most likely from around I-70 and north
  • Thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning
  • Thunderstorms and rain are likely Sunday afternoon and evening. The timing of the front is critical because if the front moves through too early the heaviest rain may end up south and east of Kansas City.

6

And, look at this one:

5

The top one is the latest trend with the front blowing through Kansas City around 4 PM Sunday.

The latest NAM (00z or 7 PM model run) has the front slower again with a lot of rain. And, it also has snow Sunday night. A lot to go over tonight and Sunday.  Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary

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22 comments to Timing Of The Front Is Critical

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    What is the likely hood of Maryville seeing flakes on the backside of this storm system?

  • AW

    Gary,

    Not hating on you, but do you mean North and West of KC, because both of these solutions give Leavenworth an enormous amount of rain with this squall line. If possible, please make this clear. I definitely want to know.

    AW

    • Not sure what you mean, AW.

      Gary

      • AW

        In your blog, you put: Thunderstorms and rain are likely Sunday afternoon and evening. The timing of the front is critical because if the front moves through too early the heaviest rain may end up south and east of Kansas City.

        Me looking at the bottom map, it look more of the rain is North and West of KC than in the top map. Did you mean North West or South East? Not trying to sound angry or anything Gary, for the record.

        AW

        • Hume-Dude

          ADUB – I think Gary meant what he said, S or SE of metro. Because if front comes through to quick as he mentioned, the best lift would then shift south/ SE with the front so that’s where the heavier rain would set up. I know the powercast solution doesn’t agree with that, but I don’t think Gary puts that much faith in the powercast ensemble at this point in the game 48hrs out. Not so sure about the huge amounts of rain associated with a squall line, by definition a squall line is fairly narrow and quick moving, so while a quick 1″ is not out of the question squall lines are not the best setup to get copious amounts of rain( 2″+ unless training sets up )I will take the squall line because it will at least bring a widespread rain we can all enjoy

          • AW

            Okay. Thanks! Was just wondering because he said t storms start off north of I 70, or here, and shift south east. Plus both models show insane amounts of rain…
            It’s funny. I’m usually saying the facts like that. And Batman Seds and others. Thank-you for clearing that up.
            AW

        • Yes, that is what I meant. If the front moves faster, the heavier rain would more likely be farther south and east. Let’s see how tonights models set up.

          Gary

  • AW

    Weather Channel had the “Potential for Severe T-storms” sign up in orange this morning for Leavenworth this morning, but they took it down again. But I think a few T-storms might be locally severe with hail as the primary threat.

  • AW

    Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
    Sunday Showers and thunderstorms. High near 68. South wind 13 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
    Sunday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
    Monday A chance of rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

  • Emaw

    .25″ tops, followed by a cold windy Monday, been there done that.

  • mgsports

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/palm-sunday-violent-storms-to/25553810 has KC on Saturday but no Orange Light turned on and yes they say Yellow but color on screen is Orange.

  • batman

    This is going to be a unique,strange,unusual, and complex storm. Good luck with it!

  • Dobber

    Plowable snow Sunday night!

  • Emaw

    6-10, where’s Champs when you need him?

  • Drought Miser

    One more plow able snow would be awesome but I’m thinking way to warm of ground temps and front moves through so fast Sunday afternoon that should dry slot us for a bit whilst the cool core passes over head but hey you neve now after all its still early April and or Spring

  • Henley

    Oh Lord, just when we got the snow freaks back in to the woodwork, this storm has to come along.

  • Henley

    …and out they come