Good morning bloggers,
We are now going to put this dry spring to rest as summer begins with the Summer Solstice at 6:09 PM this evening. Just as summer begins rain is likely with a line of thunderstorms forming near an advancing cold front.
Thunderstorms will be developing along and near a cold front that has some punch to it this morning. It will weaken tonight. Here is a look at the front as of 6 AM:
There is one rather big difference with this set-up from the past few rain chances. The dew points are much higher with a strong flow of air from the Gulf of Mexico. The past two chances of rain had dew points in the 50s to near 60 and the rain just fell apart as it didn’t have the rich moisture to work with. There is no excuse for this to happen tonight and if the timing of the front works out later this evening we will have a very good chance of heavy thunderstorms between 9 PM and midnight in Kansas City, earlier to the north and west. The green numbers show the dew point temperatures with the red numbers being the actual surface temperatures. 70°+ dew points are in place in the region and this will help provide the fuel for torrential rainfall and if you get under one of the heavier thunderstorms tonight over an inch of rain will fall. Last night I forecasted 0.25″ to 1.25″ of rain tonight and it is still looking good. Here is the Powercast I showed valid this evening:
This next Powercast would be valid at 3 AM, but the latest data is a bit faster than this:
Thank you for stopping by and spending a few minutes reading the 41 Action Weather Blog. I will update this blog later this afternoon as the thunderstorms begin forming. Watch 41 Action News for details as we analyze and update this developing chance of rain.
Gary
It’s about time.
Like the forecast and the detail in your entry, Gary. Other outlets saying it will likely fall apart. Let’s hope it rolls through and you are correct.
Stans,
If your talking about the same guy I think your talking about, he always says that. He said that last Sunday and Monday when the city got 1-2 inches. He’s warm bias and always is 5 degrees higher on the temps each day. This is the same guy last Friday saying that flash flooding could be a problem this week with a stalled front. Now, he’s blogging about record temps and drought this week. One extreme to the other. To his credit though, it’s tough to forecast thunderstorm development and pin down the boundary placements this time of year.
Another challenge tonight. I’m hoping it set up good.
I agree he misses sometimes…just like Gary and the rest do. He at least sticks his neck out and rarely, if ever, hedges to the extreme of this channel. But, credit where due…Gary was quite specific with his forecast this time, and I will NEVER say a peep when a met is wrong while actually being specific in what they think will happen. A forecast covering all possibilities, and the LRC debate, is what usually makes me chime in occasionally with my vitriol. This time, I chimed in to applaud today’s blog and laying it out
Nws has lowered chances from 70% to 60% while Gary has upped his to 90%. Hopeful sign…
By the way, you guys really need to do some moderating of the comments. Go back and look at the ones from the last entry. The posts/accounts that need to be deleted are pretty obvious. Don’t start holding up comments, just don’t be afraid to delete them after they’re posted.
it is getting out of hand
Please.Don,t come on this blog ,and start whining.
ok
please, don’t come on this blog and say foolish, immature and irrelevant things. then maybe some won’t have to whine.
You just can,t help it w/your whining,can you?
no more than you can help being a jerk.
I think our only chance is if the front moves in faster then the models are showing. Gary, will you update the blog after another model run?
Thanks
I am kinda leaning to what the other tv station outlets are saying, although the nws down their forecast from a 70% to a 60% chance of rain i still think it will fall apart before it gets here. I will likely to bring out the rain tomorrow with my sprinkler systems scattered around the house.
Brad
Gary good write up. I will believe it when I see it. This year it just has not been happening for us here in KC. The problem is that we need more then just .25 or .50 of rain. IF we get any rain tonight, I’m afraid it will be to little to make any difference in our drought situation.
Well Gary, you said it all above, “if the timing of the front”. Yea, “if”. Kind of been at least one of the major parts of our drought this year, the “timing” of the arrival of frontal systems has been all off this year. When it gets here, the front has weakened, the triple points have lifted north or drifted south, leaving us in the dry slot.
Our dew pont here in McLouth right now is 66.5°, and rising.
Gary you are an eternal optimist. FWIW I hope you’re right about tonight. I personally am hoping for the best but fearing the worst.
Doubt we’ll see much and even if we do, one line of storms coming through won’t help much. We need multiple storms or just a good solid rainy day; the latter apparently no longer exists.
It will be interesting to see our blog responses tomorrow after tonights system. Hoping for a good line of T-storms and everyone gets a good inch or more. Trying to stay postive!!
RAP (formerly RUC) and NAM models both look good for getting at least some rain here tonight…
Good morning Gary, staff, and fellow bloggers,
I am hoping your forecast for thunderstorms holds true. I like your optimism Gary. It was one of the many traits my students liked about you when my classes did their assignments this past year about forecasts, and the blog. I strongly agree with some of the comments made earlier this morning about some enteries on this site. This negativity and sometimes rude replies are really not necessary. We’re supposed to be rational adults…not individuals who are constantly degrading others simply because we(they) speak our opinions. I say delete the ones who can’t or won’t comply with the rules.
Thanks again for everything you do.
Me agre 110% wheth yu..Me also teech..Tol me littl ones to be shut-up, ohr weels get one en bak ov head.
How hard can it be to get rid of this kind of entry?
Tush…..Karma my friend, although you may enjoy lashing out at people on this blog, Karma will always come back to bite you in the backside!
This Karma,Is she cute?
Interesting the rapid cloud development in and around Kansas City and also the development of showers and storms up in Iowa and Eastern Nebraska.
Are these clouds going to have an impact on the rain chances tonight? It’ll be hard to get to your forecast of 93 unless they thin out.
I have Softball tonight (beer drinking) at 6:30 and 7:30 what are the chances of a rain out? I would think the dirt would just soak up any rain we might get.
This is a little frustrating. You title your blog today with a question about rain with and a question mark.
Yet your graphic shows 90% chance. When the chance is 90% or above shouldn’t the forecasters get off the fence?
Hello Theo,
Got your post from yesterday. I would certainly agree that we have been on the edge of a drought for 15 months or so and may accelerate into a severe one. My argument(not to say is right)that a drought is a period of almost no rain. Texas for example last year, days on end with no rain and 100+ heat. That to me is a drought.
Here, we have had several rainy periods since you and I have been going back and forth on whether it is a drought or not from late last fall. NWS never had us any higher then abnormally dry since the wet Nov.(from Dec.1st through April this Spring, we have not been in any phase of drought according to the NWS drought monitor) Following that, we had a 150% of normal Dec. and the same for Feb. and March. Soil moisture values as of March 20th this year where labeled as very moist for eastern KS. and western Mo. I follow that to a “T” because I’m in the landscaping field.
Now, this pattern has been really bad and in my opinion unlucky, will it continue, maybe, maybe not.(Gary’s calling for a average summer precip wise, which the jury still out on that due to his misses of recent on long range forecasting, no way he misses three in a row)
So, when I see periods of rain and then dry periods, then periods rain, to me, that’s just a dry pattern at times. Things are getting bad, but we’re only five inches behind normal for the year(some parts of town are above average for the year, isolated)that’s not much ground to make up. Plus, I do believe we ended up finishing average or slightly above average in 2011.
A drought to me is 10-20 inches below average, dried up creeks and lakes and a very low river causing water restrictions.(good rains up north should prevent a low river at least for the short term) 10′s of thousands of trees dead, total crop loss..etc. We’re in line for all of this, but a few inches here in there should prevent catastrophic drought. Being really dry around these parts in the summer is not all that unusual. 4 inches of rain in the wettest part of the year, that’s just plain crazy.
Good talk.
Gary why are you allowing douchechaser to continue posting here? Did you not see the stuff this little boy said yesterday on the blog about you in particular? Block his mommys ip address so that way he’ll have to go to the library to post on here. Unbelievable.
You need to take a cold shower..Your getting a(little)hot
I wonder what tush chaser really stands for?….. what does tush stand for? butt? behind?
Are you familiar with the ZZ Top song “Tush?” I always figured that’s what his handle stood for what you think it does and I’d say his immature and inappropriate posts confirm this.
I just want to know when the rain is expected not listen to you idiots go back and forth. Just call each other and talk.
Also one more derogative comment on here i am done and going somewhere else. This should be the theme for all of us that truly use this blog as a tool for our lives that these others just do not have. OBVIOUSLY!!!!!!!!!!!
Very interesting that latest SPC severe outlook has two separate zones of slight risk for severe, and the gap includes Kansas City.
I hope that doesn’t ruin the rain potential. It’s always something.
My concern is storms well to our west become strongest part of the line, line turns to the south, this cuts off the moisture inflow into our area, and the storms die as they get here. This has been a recurring problem this spring. I hope it doesn’t happen this time.
Seds,
Very true, it’s been a big problem this year. I always look forward to your rainfall amounts, we have a lot of clients in your area.
I think a little rain would do these trolls some good. Douchetaster go back to your hole. Your scaring away the decency of this blog.
Beckarelli…
What’s up buddy? How’s Michelle? Good I hope.
No need to go somewhere else, this is the best blog in the country. Gary and Co. will get it cleaned up. I think the rain will be after 8 tonight. So, beer drinking looks good and sounds good.
I cant believe it has gone on now for two days. It is an awesome blog.
I think our chances are 30% at best…I can already see the same scenario setting up as in the past. The timing on these fronts is uncanny…vs coming through late in the afternoon or in the early to mid evening…they plod their way through after midnight, so by then whatever has formed dries up. Latest NWS radar shows storms/showers forming up north and west of Omaha.
Don’t forget about the low level jet kicking in tonight, should help in developing more activity. I just hope it doesn’t stay just SW of our immediate area.
Dew points are up near 70, boundary coming in, how does it not rain? Oh yeah, it’s the Spring of 2012.
With a moderate cap in place over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, I think it’s going to be hard for any storms that get going northwest of here to hold together and make into the metro. NW Lawrence is in a moderate drought and we are 8.11″ inches below normal.
Mower,
All is well she is great and our child is almost two and crazy. I know this is the best blog these idiots can really drive you crazy
Beckarelli,
You have some catching up to do. I have a 4 year old, a 3 year old and a 7 day old. ALL BOYS!! I turn 33 next month, but I feel like I’m turning 53. Kids wear you out, that’s for sure.
haha Mike,
Oh yeah i forgot that youjust had your third congrats. How is your bro holding up?
Great. It will be 2 years in August since the accident. He’s doing much better. Thanks for asking.
RAP/RUC now shows an initial line not really making it here, but a second line that does…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ Watch might be issued.
Yeah for your family Mike i figured that would be tough but you guys just keep on motoring glad to hear all is well. Be at happy rock tonight drinking by 5:00 if your around that way. smack dap in the middle of the parking lot.