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Thunderstorms Tonight?

Good morning bloggers,

There is a weak front that is not very well defined tracking southeast across the plains this morning. There is a much stronger summer cold front forecast to develop and approach the area later this weekend.  These two systems have my attention today, so let’s discuss these set ups.  The severe weather risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center has been pushed farther south.

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There is no well defined front. This is the first problem with forecasting any areas where severe thunderstorms will form.  And, this has been a consistent “problem” for storm chasers in our region all year long in this cycling pattern.  The 6 PM map is platted below. Where is the front?  I will be trying to find it later today on 41 Action News during our 4, 5, and 6 PM newscasts. By the 6:30 Pm newscast a few thunderstorms may begin forming near the frontal zone.

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The front is still ill defined at 10 PM, but the HRRR shows thunderstorm development near KC and south of KC by late evening:

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The next front is much stronger. It is actually looking like a candidate for the first front of the fall season.  I plotted this 7 AM Monday forecast map from the latest GFS model below.  A surface cyclone is forecast to develop over Missouri by Monday. As this moves by, a pretty nice north to northwest wind will develop by Monday evening, and this will push drier air our way and allow morning lows to possibly drop deeper into the 50s.  There will be a chance of thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday as this system moves by.

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Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments. We are less than two months away from having a new LRC to discuss. I can’t wait!  Have a great day.

Gary

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