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Thunderstorms & Then Snow!

Good late evening bloggers,

A major storm is now affecting us. Thunderstorms with heavy downpours will be followed just a few hours later by a band of snow that will likely cause a very slick & hazardous commute.

Check out this surface map from the 9 PM hour:

70 degree air has surged north to the Kansas/Oklahoma border.  The surface storm is cranking up big time and becoming quite powerful. As the surface low tracks to our east later tonight the cold air will blast in here.  Temperatures will be dropping to below freezing by the morning rush hour with the expected heavy snow. We are thinking the heavy snow band will last only two to three hours and this is why the amounts will be limited to what we have been consistently forecasting for days.  I did refine the forecast just a bit and I am expecting 2 to 3 inches across the KC metro area. A few isolated spots may see 4 inches of snow  and a few may struggle to get to 2 inches.

Here is the snowfall forecast updated for the 10 PM newscast:

Thank you for sharing this exciting Kansas City weather experience with us. Let us know what you experience.  Who is staying up tonight?

Gary

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193 comments to Thunderstorms & Then Snow!

  • other guy says little to no snow, not much water vapor

    • Craig

      Even at this late hour, The Downplayer, Mr Calm & Mature, says NO SNOW for the metro.
      Of course, he’s so wise and mature. His experience tells him to ignore the models that have consistently shown 2-3″ of snow for 72 hours.
      Why anyone wastes their time consistently watching that guy is beyond me.

  • yep, the other person is really standing their ground with almost no snow… anxious to see how this turns out. I’m not even sure his co-workers agree with him either.

  • mattmaisch

    Map looks to fall inline with the NAM nicely. GFS starts rolling in in about 15 minutes. Another look at next weeks storm.. Anxious for that.

  • allthough i have done no scientific studies, it seems like other guy seems to be right more often than Don Flamenco..

  • 3-Ball

    Consistent differences in these 2 forecasts for the last several days. I will choose my go-to winter forecast station based on what happens tonight!

  • KCWeather

    hard seeing us getting much snow at all…

  • yewtrees

    This is a very fast storm!!! I am so concerned that there won’t be any moisture left for snow. This was what Gary wrote on Dec 17 “By midnight Wednesday night that 540 line is passing us, so it would become cold enough to snow at this time, but will there be any precipitation left?”

  • kellyinkc

    Tornado warning near Table Rock Lake, Shell knob!! Powerful storm

  • other guy been saying bust for a week,,, Hey don flamenco, where you at

  • l lohr

    since no body predicted the thunderstorms, it would seem models didn’t have a really good handle on intensification.

    would earlier intensity mean 300 mb jet gets involved and takes it more NE’erly than thought?

    and who is don flamenco? or what?

  • weatherbro

    Yeah doesn’t look lime that forecast will verify. Oh well. Excited for the potential of next weeks storm!

  • Well, don’t get me wrong here.. I >>want<< Gary to be right and I'm hoping..but then again, we've seen this time and time again where things look promising and then *poof*….:|

  • stjoeattorney

    wind is blowing hard 25 plus from due north 36 now and there seems to be redevelopment in eastcentral KS, but the TSTORMS may have cut off any new stream of moisture. we should be snow by 12midnite we will be cooled at all levels

  • davidmcg

    OK, city people are robbing us rural people again. Here in McLouth we have the occassional down pour, but no lightening or thunder. If ya’ll get thunder snow you will get the heavy end of it. Still 36.4°F here in McLouth, no mix yet, yet being the key word. The wind is now NNW at 12.0mph gusting to 14. Snowing up in Holton, so it has crossed US75 highway. I wonder how much sleet if any we will get, looks like it is going to change over very fast. Also, took a ground temp 6″ deep about an hour ago, 36.4°F is what I got…..

  • kettle corn

    mammal of an even number is sticking to his forecast. Cant wait to see how it turns out!

  • R-Dub

    Well, it was expected that the storm would be looking a bit ragged now. We have to trust that it will intensify in time to give KC snow. Touch wood, cross your fingers, whatever you can do to help…

  • RickMckc

    Ragged is a good descriptor, R-Dub.

    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif”

  • stjoeattorney

    it was not to look ragged it was to be just dev eloping, it brust up too fast and the severe and strong storms down south choked off the moisture, i have seen it happen before. we will see in the am. nite nite……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

  • blue8091

    Enjoying the storm – loudest thunder I’ve heard in such a long time! 119th/Antioch. I’ve enjoyed all the weather debate here in the comments lately. Happy Holidays everyone! Be safe.

  • storm42

    Nice thunderstorms. The radar trend back west does concern me though for snow later

  • Wow! My Davis weather station showed rainfall rate of 4.2″ per hour!

  • really quite a tstorm here in Olathe.

  • Weatherwatcher

    No thunder, etc., here in Lee’s Summit. Hopefully, that will change in awhile!

  • R-Dub

    On the plus side, we’re getting thundershowers!

  • KCSooner

    I am new to the blog, but it seems to me looking at the NWS National Mosiac Radar that the upper low is trying to reform near the KS, OK border…

  • grassmankc

    Temperature is still rising in Greenwood MO. It was 41 degrees at 5:30 and now it’s up to 43.7 degrees. At least the wind is from the north/northeast now. Dewpoint has risen 3 degrees to 39 degrees since 5:30.

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    For all of you who DONT think it can snow, thunder, and lighting at the same time, enjoy this clip of Jim Cantore, man this storm that is currently over us is STRONG and very, very cool. Well worth the long boring weather we have been having as of late! :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    For all of you who DONT think it can snow, thunder, and lighting at the same time, enjoy this clip of Jim Cantore, man this storm that is currently over us is STRONG and very, very cool. Well worth the long boring weather we have been having as of late! “http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y”

  • davidmcg

    Weather update from Jefferson County KS. We finally got that thunder and lightening ya’ll had been keeping from us. Also with it is hail – heavy hail. So heavy a Deputy is reporting US 59 hwy south of Oskaloosa is covered.

  • davidmcg

    radar indicating the rain has changed to snow in Valley Falls, in Jefferson County KS. no confirmation from our dispatchers yet…..

  • melafinatu

    Well…It looks like the showdown has begun. MT from “downplay” is def sticking to his forecast. Even his own WX team is disagreeing with him. Maybe JL from “downplay” will consider coming over from the dark side after this. We will know who wins this one, in 24 hrs

  • teamster83

    I am not a expert but it does look like the snow to the north west is dieing off. My question can these thunderstorms choke off the moisture and kill the snow.

  • Update from North Kansas City, MO… Thunder, lightning, and pea sized hail.

  • McCabe58

    Why are you all giving up on this now? I’m completely confused…. This was never expected to be a monter snowstorm…

    • mattmaisch

      Exactly! No reason to panic. The snow will come in the early morning hours. People are freaking out for no reason.

  • stormchaser

    Update from South KC (Waldo) 10:14p: 5 minutes of heavy rain and lightning. Sporadic pea-sized hail for 2 minutes.

  • Kole Christian

    The snow band seems to be thinning but if the low swings north around KC it will stay on us long enough to get nice accumulations. I’m sticking with 2-3 for my house.

  • Homer

    I’ve already got .45 inch of rain and heavy hail this evening. Northern JOCO, west of the plaza. I’m guessing 4 inches of snow here (KC Metro), even though we’ve lost so much moisture to the rain tonight.

  • melafinatu

    Keep the faith, ya’ll. Don’t give up on this yet.

  • kettle corn

    I dont know what weather person will be right tomorrow. I just know 41 has the best weather blog. period

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    Will the temperature continue to drop tomorrow? Will 12 am be the highest temperature for Thursday?

  • l lohr

    i’m not giving up on anything…heck, i’m still up–2 hours later than usual…i just noted that no one predicted this narrow band of thunderstorms, so i’m thinking the models missed something.

  • kettle corn

    Downpour in LS. Lightning etc

  • Unstay_Bill

    Really looks like T-storms are going to limit the moisture available to the comma head. Really feel confident in the lower snowfall totals I stated previously.

  • smiley10

    Agree with Kettle Corn…this is the best weather blog in Kansas City!

  • mattmaisch

    Storms will likely NOT cut down on snow totals on this storm. The storm is going through a transition right now and may not look as organized as it did earlier. By tomorrow morning, it will look plenty organized. This is very likely. The 2-4″ totals are still likely in many areas. There is really not much evidence to the contrary right now.

    Matt

  • weatherbro

    I’d be shocked if I get more than an 1.5″ by tomorrow morning. Damn those t-storms!

  • weatherbro

    Matt, next weeks fantasy still showing up?

  • Skylar

    The storms really shouldn’t be much of a problem, there’s still plenty of moisture on the cold side and a good WAA feed ahead of the heavier convection. This wasn’t every supposed to be anything huge. If it doesn’t pan out, GFS again shows over 1″ qpf over the area for the Xmas storm with the low tracking from Tulsa to STL.

  • Adam Penney

    0z GFS still showing a VERY substantial and impressive winter storm next week.

  • weatherbro

    Drooling over here lol. What if?

  • teamster83

    after this poof i dont put much faith in the xmas storm either sorry to be a downer just take into consideration the history of kc with snow.

  • McCabe58

    Teamster…. What poof are you referring to? Not a whole lot has changed in this storm at all. The same totals are still being predicted… Maybe you’re trying reverse psychology or something? Who knows… I don’t see why you are all being depressed and thinking this is a bust lol

  • teamster83

    maybe its because i am not as smart as you guys. The snow shield up in nebraska is thinning out plus is it even gonna get cold enough to snow

    • mattmaisch

      Snow isn’t forecast to start until 4:00 or so. It will be plenty cold for snow by around that time. Don’t worry about what is happening in Nebraska. Our snow isn’t coming from there. You will see it fill in on the radar off to our west and southwest. Nothing you see on there right now is all that significant in regards to what will be happening 5 hours from now. Temps won’t be a problem, so don’t worry about that..

      Matt

      • Craig

        Agreed. Just a bunch of people trying to predict the future here based upon nothing but their gut and a hunch. Give it time. Gary knows what he’s doing.

        Regarding Mr Calm During the Storm…never forget that Gary worked with him at Channel 4 back in the 90s. He’s always been jealous of Gary’s success and, therefore, he tries to portray himself as “the responsible weatherman” by constantly making forecasts that are contrary to Gary’s. He’s like a petulant, litlle child and he should be ignored.

  • melafinatu

    Just watched TWC’s forecast. There’s two minutes of my life i’ll never get back. They attempted to show the circulation of the ULL with a graphic…it was half the size of kansas. Whew, glad we don’t have to rely on those guys

  • trichjayhawks

    looks like the rain/snow line has now made it to manhattan. they are reporting light snow

  • allietag

    It seems that “everyone” has a different opinion of what is going to happen with this storm. So far tonight, here in Atchison County, Kansas I have seen/heard Thunder, Lightning, heavy rain, hail, strong winds. I was out at 10 and just stepped out on the porch a few minutes ago and the temperature has definitely dropped. I know all the kids around here are hoping for an early Christmas vacation!

  • davidmcg

    dipped to 34.3°F here in McLouth now, winds are really starting to kick up. 17.0mph from the NNW, gusting to 21.7, dewpoint falling now at 32.0°F

  • Craig

    To heck with Mr Calm, check the RAP. It has been consistently correct. Mr Calm has not.
    http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=RAP&mdl=grads/rap&file=panel2&nplts=13&width=800&height=700

  • Adam Penney

    0z GFS showing significant winter storms for just after Christmas and then again around New Years.

  • brucer8774

    Agreed Craig. Mr Calm kills me with his “no winter” forecasts. His counterpart is actually pretty good. I hope Gary shows him up again!!

  • davidmcg

    I don’t know, I think I am starting to lean toward the naysayers opinion also. This system is lifting north very rapidly now, or it appears to be on radar. Out here 60 miles west of KC we should have already switched over but haven’t. I’ll wait another hour and see what is happenning then.

    • mattmaisch

      Your switchover isn’t scheduled to take place for a few more hours. As for the system lifting north, the center of low pressure is in northern Oklahoma right now, and has been going through a transition. I wouldn’t worry too much about the radar right now. If it looks dead at 5:00, then I’d start to question things, but I wouldn’t worry too much right now.

  • RickMckc

    Heads up on the blog rules … “no personal attacks” may also apply to other stations mets.

    It’s been a great day here of weather discussions – over 500 posts since this morning!

    As Adam mentioned, GFS is still on the trail of a Christmas storm (and not too shabby on this current one, either).

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    Also of interest is the NEXT time frame …

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfsb.png”

    The storm that is showing up around New Year’s Day has been there on the past few runs as well. Maybe the pattern really is changing!

  • RickMckc

    davidmcg … check out this loop before you throw in the towel.

    “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php”

    Notice the precip over North Central OK … it is growing and moving south – evidence that the storm is still digging, which is a good thing for the current forecasts.

    I’m still sticking with my earlier 1.5 on the Plaza, 2.5-3.0 in the Northland up to KCI.

  • RickMckc

    Surface obs at 11pm …

    “http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/readyout/sfmap_956.gif”

    I would put the surface low in the circle formed by Tulsa, Joplin and Chanute. Anyone else see that or have a different idea?

    • thomasmidwest

      Yea it looks like its just north of tulsa to me. Its way south than I thought

    • sedsinkc

      I think the surface low center is slightly north of Joplin, nearing the state line. Joplin is clearly in the warm sector of the storm. From the past 2 hours of obs, it’s clear cold air advection or cold air transport on the back side of the low has begun at KCI and St Joe. New obs will be out in a minute, interesting to look at pressure change rates locally and down around Springfield and Columbia.

  • Kole Christian

    St. Joesph should be getting snow about now according to the radar.

  • LittleAndy

    The rain/snow line appears to be very close to St Joe. Probably won’t get much precip within the next few hrs but at least when it happens it should be cold enough to snow!!

  • trichjayhawks

    topeka seems to be reporting wintry mix

  • LittleAndy

    No snow here in st joe yet just overcast and windy

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2012122004&plot_type=acsnw_t2sfc&fcst=13&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t2&adtfn=1″
    here is the latest RUC or “RAP” as it is called now, SNOW forecast

  • sedsinkc

    Down to 36 at KCI at midnight and north wind is picking up. North wind also picking up downtown now. Pressure falls have stopped in KC area, but still falling pretty rapidly at Columbia and Springfield.

  • RickMckc

    Nice to see .46 of rain this evening at KCI. Pressure drops explain why my knees have been hurting tonight. I didn’t realize it was so low. Wow.

    • Kcchamps

      Rick, have you checked out the RUC or “RAP” site? i was looking at all the different variations of the models and they all seem to want to give us more than 4″. would like to know what you think.

    • sedsinkc

      Surface low is strengthening as it passes by KC. Pressure will drop lower in Columbia than it did here, in the next few hours, as low approaches. Almost lower there already.

  • sedsinkc

    So we are in the dry slot now, awaiting what becomes of the upper air disturbance to our southwest and what track it takes. The 04z RAP still shows heavy snow band crossing KC metro 6 to 8 am. So expect to see new precip development to our SW in the next few hours if this will come to pass. This would coincide with the maturation of our storm system, reaching its peak strength as it passes by us.

  • RickMckc

    Champs, that’s a pretty hefty looking amount of snow – probably the highest I’ve seen projected so far for this storm.

  • LittleAndy

    I am here to report it is officially snowing in st joe. Very very lightly but it is snow indeed

  • tmorrow

    Oh well, can’t win ‘em all, I guess

  • RickMckc

    Seds, what do you think of the link Champs posted?

    • sedsinkc

      That’s an eye opener, and no mistake. I think it is going to snow very heavily for 2 or 3 hours at most, but if we get 1″+ rates for 2 or 3 consecutive hours we could end up with 4″ of snow at least. Let’s watch that growing snow area around Wichita, I think it holds the key.

    • sedsinkc

      I like the data presentation on that link and have bookmarked it for future reference.

  • sedsinkc

    The area of snow rotating through the Wichita area is beginning to grow in intensity and aerial coverage. Perhaps the first signs of what will be our snow event in a few hours?

  • outdoorchic76

    Extremely light flurries and 34.8 degrees (although I don’t have the greatest thermometer) here in Tongie, 6 miles NW of town.

  • trichjayhawks

    winds are starting to pick up

  • trichjayhawks

    radar looks as though it is beginning to fill in

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    The snow from Wichita Area to Topeka is Strenghing. With some Heavy Snow. Thunderstorms going again just east of KC. Looks like 2-4” to me.

  • so is that snow on the radar reaching the ground…at topeka already?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.my-cast.com/#64056,+MO”

    here is a good radar site to look at

  • RickMckc

    This surface map is a lot better than what I posted last hour:

    “http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20100107&endTime=-1&duration=0″

    Surface low appears to be on the Mo/Ks state line north of Joplin. No more rain for us – snow only from this point on.

    • sedsinkc

      Some sleet or sleet/rain mix likely at the outset here in KC, but it will change to snow within 30 minutes to an hour of precip starting.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    35.F AT MY HOUSE IN OLATHE

  • oh thanks kcchamps thats a cool map

  • im skyping with my best friend in Sydney right now where its 110 degrees in hottest time of day (tomorrow) showing her that map kcchamps shes so jealous! lol

    • KUweatherman

      And I’m jealous of her. One, being in Sydney and two, being in the heat. Sounds like a good beach day! :D I’ll switch spots with her in a heartbeat.

  • OlatheMatt

    Getting close

  • weatherdude

    Hello I’m new to commenting on the blog, but I have been reading it for quite sometime. My question is when Gary said that we should expect a 2-3 hour period of heavy snow, I would think that would 1 inch/hour. So that would mean at least 2 inches there, so why does Gary keep saying only 2-3 inches for the metro, wouldnt that mean more closer to 4?

  • Alex Pickman

    Heavy mist is mixing with sleet right now in St. Joe. North wind is picking up slowly but steadily too. Will be interesting what the snow bands will do as this storm matures.

  • Winds are picking up in NKC.. No precip falling at this time… I’m trying to go to sleep, but I’m failing. I just want to see some snow! LOL

    • sedsinkc

      I took some 12 hour pseudoephedrine at about 10 pm to help me stay awake. I’ve been up all day, but after last winter I don’t want to miss this storm if it materializes like it should. My daughter just arrived from Seattle tonight and she is excited to watch the storm also.

  • Luckily, the baby wakes up around 7, so hopefully I don’t miss seeing it falling haha.

  • weatherbro

    Winds are definately picking up here in central KC now. Come on snow!

  • sedsinkc

    This storm is intensifying so rapidly right now that surface pressures have resumed falling locally even though the low has already made its closest approach to us in KC. Pressure now lower in Columbia than it is here and falling rapidly.

    • RickMckc

      Explains why my knee has starting hurting again! Nice big area of precip forming back by Witchita.

      • sedsinkc

        Yes. It appears to be coming together nicely and as the models predicted. Still appears the heaviest will be NW and N of Kansas City but we’ll get enough to make a hash of morning rush hour.

  • sedsinkc

    A taste of what’s ahead for Kansas City. Wichita currently at 31 degrees with light snow and north wind at 31 gusting to 47 mph.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2012122005&plot_type=acsnw_t2sfc&fcst=10&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t2&adtfn=1″

    latest RAP snow map, still showing 4-6″ for the metro

    • sedsinkc

      With 6″+ from around Liberty to Platte City. Interesting bullseye of 8″+ around Cameron.

      • Kcchamps

        what are your thoughts on this??

        • sedsinkc

          I’m not expert enough to comment on whether it’s realistic, but if it verifies travel on I-29 and I-35 north from KC is going to be impossible for several hours tomorrow until plows can clear the road. 8 inches of snow could be 4 foot drifts at least with 50 mph winds.

  • Kcchamps

    “http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=rap_jet:&runTime=2012122005&plotName=gust_t210m&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2″

    this shows the 10meter wind gusts LOOK AT THAT

  • fire508

    Yes, in the last 30 min the radar is rapidly increasing precip out west of ICT/TOP.

  • RickMckc

    Looks like a deformation zone is setting up on the west side of Wichita.

  • sedsinkc

    Will we get any KC metro reports of thundersleet or thundersnow from this beast?

  • lsx347

    wow! i’ve been gone for 45 mins and the radar is filling in big time

  • Kcchamps

    the “other” station 5-1 said the band was falling apart and was forecasting a dusting-1″ for the metro, he may be surprised when he wakes up lol

    • fire508

      What is funny it that mets subordinate is basically tripling his bosses forecast…… Talk about inner office issues.. LOL

      • sedsinkc

        Yeah, I noticed that too. Said subordinate took care to say these were his personal thoughts only.

        • fire508

          Radar is really starting to fill in. Even way out west it appears to be re energizing.

          • sedsinkc

            Yes. The deformation zone is developing very much in line with model expectations from earlier today. It’s going to get very interesting around here starting in about 2 hours.

  • Adam Penney

    Party time. Haven’t seen this in quite some time. Could be quite a ride over the next few weeks. The blog will undoubtedly be VERY busy.

  • weatherdude

    correct me if im wrong, but arent the RUC models very good at forcasting short term

  • fire508

    Radar is really starting to fill in. Even way out west it appears to be re energizing.

  • RickMckc

    Well, kids, that’s all for me. Most excellent day of blogging. Totally enjoyed the focus on weather instead of “other” issues.

    Enjoy!

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=06&fhour=12&parameter=PCPIN&level=12&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false”

    • fire508

      Is that all snow?
      .

    • sedsinkc

      Some of it will be rain and sleet, but the majority will be snow. If it verifies. This is probably part of the same dataset used to create that 8″+ bullseye of snow around Cameron. My only gut concern is that this thing is getting so wrapped up that it may throw just enough warm air aloft back over us from the east to prolong the sleet before it turns to snow. If we get more than 30 minutes to 1 hour of sleet before the changeover it could cut down on snow totals.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Rain/Snow line.. Lawrence to Burlington to Winfield KS. Almost here. 34.F at my house with Strong winds

  • fire508

    The RAP shows it really intensifying here within the next few hrs.

  • outdoorchic76

    Sleeting nicely NW of Tonganoxie as of 1:45 am…winds really starting to howl!

    • sedsinkc

      The developing sleet is showing up nicely on radar with the yellows showing high reflectivity of the ice pellets.

  • fire508

    “http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=06&fhour=05&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false”

    This is for 11z. But from 7z on it shows it intensifying.

  • Kcchamps

    check out the 06z NAM!

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=012&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M”

    • sedsinkc

      Shows good agreement with the RAP and means we’re getting blasted. It’s all coming together. Poor little furry creature 5-1 “other station” guy will have to join the groundhog in his hole.

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Light snow in SW Olathe. Blowing around ALOT!!!

  • fire508

    NAM is also showing significant intensifying!

  • outdoorchic76

    Heavy sleet now and mixing with snow, the ground is turning white from sleet! NW of Tonganoxie.

  • fire508

    Seems we will know our answer here in the next few hrs. If the NAM and RAP are correct then the radar will really start blowing up as that area of precip gets closer…

  • SouthOlatheGraham

    Topeka Weather Service. on there homepage is showing only a inch of us.at the bottom

  • Adam Penney

    Yikes. 06z NAM indicates 6+ inches for the metro.

  • weatherbro

    It goes from looking like we’re going to get blasted to the storm weakening on the back end. Oh jeez.

  • KUweatherman

    Grass is starting to get covered already here just north of the turnpike in Lawrence.

  • fire508

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=000&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M”
    000 HR

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121220%2F06%2Fnam_namer_000_sim_radar.gif&fcast=000&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes”
    003 HR

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121220%2F06%2Fnam_namer_003_sim_radar.gif&fcast=003&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes”

    006HR

  • outdoorchic76

    Looks like I spoke too soon….it quickly turned over to almost all snow. Snowing moderately and the wind is blowing it sideways. Ground has a nice dusting now. (Tonganoxie)

  • fire508

    And the RAP shows the same.

  • LittleAndy

    Snow accumulating rather quickly in st jo.

  • kcjc777

    It started raining here near Zona Rosa a while ago and it just now changed over to moderate-heavy sleet.

  • fire508

    “http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=06&fhour=12&parameter=PCPIN&level=12&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false”

    NAM 12 HR PRECIP TOTAL 06Z RUN

  • lsx347

    sleeting good in Shawnee now at 0215.

  • fire508

    “http://www.my-cast.com/#64073,+MO”

    Hmm looks familiar. Like 2 weather models….LOL

  • kcjc777

    Wow the sleet is really coming down here (Near Zona Rosa).

    Very heavy sleet with thunder, sleet covering ground.

    • sedsinkc

      I heard thunder a few minutes ago. I’m about 5 miles south of your location. Only heavy drizzle/light rain here so far. Appears to be thunderstorms just to my east as well, but those may contain only rain.

      • sedsinkc

        Should say 5 miles southeast of your location.

        • kcjc777

          Oh what a difference a few miles can make.

          I had settled in for bed and was almost asleep when the sleet woke me up. I might just stay up now that the party has started.

  • fire508

    And if you look at the radar in the last few frames it is reforming out west of Salina

  • McCabe58

    NOOOOO I fell asleep! I will be up the rest of the night now! Someone please fill me in on anything I missed! Is it still looking good? Sorry I’m too lazy/tired right now to go through all the comments

  • sedsinkc

    New blog.