Good Saturday morning bloggers,
9:30 AM UPDATE:
The new NAM is in and there is a lean towards just scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 2 PM to 9 PM. This means scenario #1 seems to be the way to go. Is this really a surprise based on this season? The features are disorganized in combination with lots of clouds from the dissipated morning thunderstorms will keep us just cool enough to prevent widespread development.
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Well, it is no secret, we need the rain! There is a decent chance for thunderstorms later today and tonight, but will it be an organized and widespread event?
We are tracking a disturbance in central Kansas that has a decreasing area of rain and thunderstorms and a disturbance in southcentral Nebraska that contains showers and a few thunderstorms. There is also a very weak cold front located from northern Kansas to northwest Iowa (SEE MAP #1). These features will be move through our area between 3 PM and 10 PM. They will likely generate new showers and thudnerstorms as they interact with the more unstable afternoon air. There is still a question on how widespread the event will become. We will just have to see how it evolves. At this time we have 2 Powercast scenarios. See MAPS #2 and #3. If the thunderstorms get going there will be a slight risk for severe weather with the potential for 40-60 mph wind gusts and large hail in a few of the thudnerstorms. We believe, ath this time, the SPC is overdoing the tornado threat.
There is a slight chance for morning thunderstorms on Father’s Day as the weak cold front will be near I-70 during the morning before it washes out.
It better rain, because Monday through Thursday look windy, dry, hot and humid with just one rain chance at the end of next week along a cold front. We will be under the influence of a large upper level high forming in the eastern 1/2 of the USA. See MAP #4.
MAP #1: The morning set up with 2 disturbances and a weak cold front.
MAP #2: Scenario #1…Most locations would receive under .25″
MAP #3: Scenario #2…Most locations receive .25″ to 1″ with a better chance for severe weather.
MAP #4: The eastern upper level high that will bring our area four days of dry, windy and hot weather.
Have a great weekend and lets hope it rains!
Jeff
Great write up this mornin Jeff! My son has his 2nd b day party outside today, yet still hoping for rain today!
It,s a good time to trade-in your son,before he appreciates any more…Those terrible 2s.I feel sorry for you
depreciates???
Stinky, I have your big Mac ready. Come and get it!
Man I HATE this LRC. No snow. No storms. Yuck.
Now we get 90 days of heat and humidity before a new cycle sets up. Double yuck.
The LRC called for snow,and rain.Just don,t be such a bummer
The NAM has no knowledge of the storms in So.Ks. Don,t pay any attention to it!!!
I have grave doubts about our rain prospects today. All this debris cloud cover will limit surface heating/instability around here so storms later today will probably fire somewhere else where instability is greater. If anyone in KC gets 1/4 inch of rain today consider yourself lucky/blessed.
EAX NWS has a different take. Here’s the AFD updated at 11am. Precipitable water values expected to rise to 1.75″ …
http://tinyurl.com/dxm4zt
FWIW, Bookbinder seems to be a pretty good forecaster.
EAX NWS has a different take. Here’s the AFD updated at 11am. Precipitable water values expected to rise to 1.75″ …
“tinyurl.com/dxm4zt”
FWIW, Bookbinder seems to be a pretty good forecaster.
Rick I saw that from EAX. Combine this with all the outdoor events planned and I feel bullish on our rain chances.
Jeff,
What is the GFS saying?
It says, STOP ASKING QUESTIONS,AND GET BACK TO WATCHING YOUR CARTOONS!!!
Wow tushy! Your on a roll today! Tell your mom to stop letting you eat brownies for breakfast.
I,ve never heard of a female czar..you,r the first:)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1186.gif NEW”MD” FOR ARE AREA!!!
New MD for are area..Severe thunder storm watch likely!!!
The MCS this am really cut r t-storm chances down. If it rains any, we will b fortunate. I think all action will get going just east of here @marshall, Brookfield areas. I hope we get rain, cause next week is H&H- hot&humid.
Severe tstorm watch till 7
Jeff, I am sorry this isn’t going be be enough today. We need you to go through the data again and at the very minimum come up with a scenario 1 1/2!
Heard on the radio this morning that this could be the hottest summer ever on record… Not sure where they get their info, but it sure will be a hot one! Severe storms later today. Count on it!