Good Saturday morning bloggers,
9:30 AM UPDATE:
The new NAM is in and there is a lean towards just scattered showers and a few thunderstorms 2 PM to 9 PM. This means scenario #1 seems to be the way to go. Is this really a surprise based on this season? The features are disorganized in combination with lots of clouds from the dissipated morning thunderstorms will keep us just cool enough to prevent widespread development.
Well, it is no secret, we need the rain! There is a decent chance for thunderstorms later today and tonight, but will it be an organized and widespread event?
We are tracking a disturbance in central Kansas that has a decreasing area of rain and thunderstorms and a disturbance in southcentral Nebraska that contains showers and a few thunderstorms. There is also a very weak cold front located from northern Kansas to northwest Iowa (SEE MAP #1). These features will be move through our area between 3 PM and 10 PM. They will likely generate new showers and thudnerstorms as they interact with the more unstable afternoon air. There is still a question on how widespread the event will become. We will just have to see how it evolves. At this time we have 2 Powercast scenarios. See MAPS #2 and #3. If the thunderstorms get going there will be a slight risk for severe weather with the potential for 40-60 mph wind gusts and large hail in a few of the thudnerstorms. We believe, ath this time, the SPC is overdoing the tornado threat.
There is a slight chance for morning thunderstorms on Father’s Day as the weak cold front will be near I-70 during the morning before it washes out.
It better rain, because Monday through Thursday look windy, dry, hot and humid with just one rain chance at the end of next week along a cold front. We will be under the influence of a large upper level high forming in the eastern 1/2 of the USA. See MAP #4.
MAP #1: The morning set up with 2 disturbances and a weak cold front.
MAP #2: Scenario #1…Most locations would receive under .25″
MAP #3: Scenario #2…Most locations receive .25″ to 1″ with a better chance for severe weather.
MAP #4: The eastern upper level high that will bring our area four days of dry, windy and hot weather.
Have a great weekend and lets hope it rains!