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Thunderstorms, Heat and a Total Solar Eclipse

Good Sunday,

We have a much going on in the weather department as we are tracking chances of thunderstorms, heat and a three hour period Monday that has a total solar eclipse and we do not want thunderstorms for those hours.  We will take you through this afternoon through Tuesday morning and just look how much will be changing in the weather and sky.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The morning thunderstorms will be long gone and it will become hot and humid with the heat index rising to around 100°. It will be dry and muggy this evening.

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MONDAY MORNING: There will be a few thunderstorms with temperatures in the 70s.  The bigger thunderstorms will likely be in Iowa.

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MONDAY (1141 AM to 235 PM): Now to the eclipse.

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Here is the forecast we put out about 55 days ago using the CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis).  We have not touched this forecast since it was made.

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Here is what the latest data, 1 day before the eclipse shows regarding clouds.  So, not a bad forecast using the CPH.  If you want to see the eclipse with hardly a cloud in the sky you would have to travel to Wyoming off to the west or be in the Tennessee Valley.  Lets break down the situation in our local area.

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MONDAY (11:41 AM):

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MONDAY (1:08 PM):

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MONDAY (2:35 PM):

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You can see that there are clouds and they could be extensive.  However, before panic sets in, it is looking like the majority of clouds will be cirrus.  This means the sun/eclipse will be mostly visible through the clouds.  Now, there will be patches of mid level clouds, altocumulus and altostratus along with a few cumulus.  Let’s hope where you are that those lower clouds are not over the sun for the :40 to 2:40 that the total solar eclipse is occurring.

This is what we are thinking the sky will look like as the clouds move through the sky.  We are hoping for mostly thin cirrus clouds.

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Enjoy the eclipse, and even if there are clouds, the environment around you will be quite unique and special.  There is really no reason to change locations as the cloud situation is similar all across the region.  The only reason to change locations is if there is going to be a clear cut bad area apparent in the morning, or you can hop on a plane and fly to Wyoming or leave for those areas today.

 

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MONDAY (5 PM to 8 PM): After the eclipse we will turn our attention to thunderstorms as a cold front moves in from the northwest and combines with a monsoon disturbance now in New Mexico.  The timing of this disturbance will play a role in the thickness of the cirrus during the eclipse.  A slower disturbance is what is preferred.

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MONDAY (8 PM to MIDNIGHT): Thunderstorms will be increasing and there is a chance of strong winds, hail and flash flooding.

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TUESDAY (MIDNIGHT to 8 AM): There will be many rounds of thunderstorms with flash flooding a possible issue as rainfall amounts will reach 1″ to 3″ with some locations seeing 3″ to 6″.

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After the thunderstorms end Tuesday morning we will be looking at some great weather Wednesday-Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, lows in the 50s to low 60s, abundant sunshine and lower humidity.

Have a great week and enjoy the eclipse.

Jeff Penner

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2 comments to Thunderstorms, Heat and a Total Solar Eclipse

  • wxfreak

    Thank you for the info. Hopefully this is constructive criticism, I can’t see the clouds on some of maps because of the eclipse band overlays.

  • Hi Gary from Lori

    Thank you KSHB weather team. You were spot on with your forecast. I had a perfect eclipse experience traveling to Excelsior Springs. I looked at this post last night and felt excited to know those cirrus clouds would not ruin the viewing.

    The KSHB weather team is the best in Kansas City.