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Thunderstorm Chances Thursday-Labor Day, but There is a Trend

Good Wednesday bloggers,

Some locations can say that the drought has been seriously dented. Others, well, the same old story.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals for the last two days, since Monday August 27th. Northern Missouri and southeast Iowa were the big winners with rainfall amounts of 2″ to 5″. Eastern Kansas and west central Missouri were the big losers.

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When you zoom in on northern Missouri you can see there was a band from around Trenton-Chillicothe to the Iowa and Illinois borders that saw many amounts between 2″ and 4″ of rain. These are areas that can say the drought is dented. There were some nice amounts around Maryville, MO as well.

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Rainfall was still mostly paltry in KC, despite a major line of thunderstorms crossing most of the city Tuesday evening. The line was moving very fast and there were some very thin parts to the line. Amounts ranged from under .05″ to 1.50″ with the heaviest across northern sections of Platte and Clay counties. This mostly came from Tuesday night thunderstorms.

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Now, let’s take a look at the next few days.

TODAY: The clearing line is located between Kansas City and St. Joseph. This line will drift south through the day, leading to a near perfect evening. Highs will be in the 70s, dropping to around 70° this evening along with a light east to northeast wind.

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THURSDAY MORNING: The cold front from today will begin lifting north as a warm front. So, the low clouds will return and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri with KC on the northern edge. Lows will be 60°-65°.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The afternoon will be mostly dry under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs will be 75° to 85°. The warm front will be drifting north and during the evening new T-Storms will form from southeast Nebraska into eastern Kansas. The best chance will be after 9-10 PM, mostly after the Chiefs game.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: Where will the main thunderstorms track? The 12z GFS and 12z NAM have it tracking mostly into northern Missouri and southern Iowa as the southern extension falls apart. This would leave KC with paltry rainfall totals. This is not set in stone as these can sometimes turn hard south. Data from earlier in the week was suggesting this. 1″ to 4″ of rain will occur where the main area tracks with amounts none to 0.25″ where it does not track.

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FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LABOR DAY: The warm front will be heading north and it will stall then begin wavering back and forth through the weekend. The heaviest rain will be along and mostly north of the front. The data has been trending for the front to be mostly across Nebraska and Iowa, but this is not set in stone. Thunderstorm clusters will play a huge role on the daily location of the front.  Highs will be in the 90s south of the front and 70s/80s to the north. We will have to take the forecast one day at a time.

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Have a great night.

Jeff Penner

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