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Storm systems, meteorites, and asteroids!

Good morning bloggers, It’s FRIDAY!

Colder air surged in last night with a band of snow showers around 3 AM.  The temperature dropped to 19° this morning.   A big storm has everyones attention, but it is still six days away and it is a storm that doesn’t even exist at the moment.  We will go into the details of the changing weather pattern in a second, but first, check out what happened in Russia last night causing hundreds of injuries. A meteorite, large enough to cause an explosion and up to 500 injuries, blasted into Siberia late yesterday:

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A meteorite struck Russia last night, and it is just a coincidence that an asteroid is approaching earth today and will pass by barely missing our planet later today.  This meteorite, without any warning, slammed into a community and on impact caused shock waves, and as you can see it was easily visible.

And, here is an illustration of what the asteroid likely somewhat looks like:

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The asteroid, that has been talked about for weeks now, will be below our satellites but it will miss earth by just over 17,000 miles and pass by today having no influence on us at all. It’s a close call and it is around the size of half a football field.  NASA promised the asteroid would miss Earth by 17,150 miles, avoiding catastrophe. But that’s still closer than many communication and weather satellites. Scientists insisted those, too, would be spared.  Scientists at NASA’s Near-Earth Object program at California’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimate that an object of this size makes a close approach like this every 40 years. The likelihood of a strike is every 1,200 years.

Okay, let’s shift subjects from astronomy to meteorology.  There are three systems to track in the next week.

  • A fast moving upper level disturbance will pass by tonight with a chance of a band of snow showers. This disturbance will become a very strong storm just off the east coast over the weekend.
  • A second storm will approach the area Monday, but the models have been consistent at developing this storm more impressively to our east on Monday. We still have to monitor this one closely, but it will have a much bigger impact northeast and east of KC
  • The third system is more likely a much bigger and impacting storm for our area, but it is still six days away and doesn’t even exist at the moment.

Here is a look at one forecast valid Wednesday night:

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A strong cold front will move through in the wake of Monday’s storm system. This may set us up for freezing rain, sleet, and snow in our viewing area later next week.  The blue line just south of Kansas City is the forecast freezing line valid at midnight Wednesday night, and notice it is precipitating at that time (the darker green shade indicating over 1/4″ of liquid precipitation.  There are so many uncertainties this far out I am not going to go into more details until it gets a bit closer.

I will discuss all of these systems on 41 Action News tonight.  Have a great day!

Gary

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46 comments to Storm systems, meteorites, and asteroids!

  • mattmaisch

    Gary,

    Don’t forget.. You have to say nothing will happen! This one’s on you. :)

  • Dobber

    Yesterday morning the long ranger showed a high of 57 next Wednesday, I asked on the blog about it being the only forecast in Kc indicating that warm of temperatures. All othe weather outlets showed a high mid to upper 30s. I noticed it changed yesterday afternoon by 21 degrees. Is this common practice?

  • Dobber

    Also, what are we looking at tonight? 1/4 ? 1″?

  • Kole Christian

    Gary,

    It’s not going to snow! ;)

  • NoBeachHere

    Last year we had mostly zonal flow with ridging in the midwest, slight La Nina, + AO and NAO and + PDO. This year we have a mostly neutral PDO, ENSO and NAO with the AO going slightly – at times and ridging, at times off the west coast. Following those trends are we trending to a – AO to finish winter or a early spring with big swing in temps?
    Also, do you see a Bermuda High setting up this year and would this amplify our rain/severe weather chance this spring into summer giving our current long term/long wave troughs?
    I’m also on the reverse pyschology, it is not going to snow.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Those were some big fluffy flakes falling around midnight last night.

    Looks like tonight’s chance of precip is going to be west of the river according to the NAM.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    This gives us around 5 inches.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    In keeping either spirit of reverse psychology , think I’m going to wash my truck this weekend. Get her all clean for the sunny spring weather :)

  • MikeL

    I’ll jump into the negativity game.

    Based on recent GFS runs, I expect this storm to jog further north on future runs making this a non-event for our area. We could have a little snow or freezing precip at the onset but then WAA will send temps just above freezing during the day Thursday and dry slotting will shutoff the precip.

    Meanwhile a raging snowstorm will be occurring over NE and IA, possibly clipping far northern MO.

  • Kole Christian

    Jack squat for us!

  • Emaw

    Ok, generator fueled and ready, check. Flashlight and batteries, check. Food and water, check. Snow shovels and ice melt, check. Weather radio, check. Prepare yourself people this storm coming next week is going to be a monster, freezing rain, sleet, and snow with blizzard like conditions, over a foot easy! “This is the big one Elizabeth!”

  • Theo

    I’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday, but will stick to my prediction of no 1 inch or more snowfalls in February at KCI.

  • R-Dub

    Easy to predict: a small amount, just enough to disappoint winter lovers but more than enough to mess up traffic and roads, since no one has any recent experience driving in snow.

  • Kole Christian

    Emaw,

    You’re ruining our plan!

  • NoBeachHere

    Could use a posts from HeatMiser and Major General DrySlot.

  • NoBeachHere

    **post**

  • sedsinkc

    Is that Russian meteor the closest encounter ever captured with a visual medium? Glad such encounters are extremely rare. Hope comet Ison late this year lives up to its pre-arrival hype.

    Fwiw, 12z GFS continues to show potential for ice here beginning Wed. evening until about 6 a.m. Thursday. Then a good rain until late morning when the dry slot gets here. Still some minor accumulating snows possible in NE KS and NW MO on back side of storm Thurs. eve. Heavy snow from E Colorado, NW KS thru NE into IA, SE SD and SW MN. In any event, looks like a wet storm even in hard-hit drought areas to our west and southwest. Storm does not look as intense pressure-wise as it did yesterday, so winds might not be as strong. 6 days of modelitis to go.

  • mattmaisch

    Well, I wish I was just sticking with the theme of reverse psychology here, but the latest 12Z GFS indicates a sharp left turn to the ULL well before it reaches Kansas City. The current projection looks very similar to the path of the storm that came through the middle part of the country last weekend.

    I was hoping to see a more southern projection than prior runs, but instead we get a more northerly projection than the past few runs. Long long way to go, but based upon the way this year has gone, I don’t like it.

    Matt

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021512&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=144″

    That’s about right for our area. An umbrella of no precip on IWM 12Z run. Still saying no snow

    • sedsinkc

      Your map goes out 144 hours. On latest GFS run, the backside snow makes its closest approach to KC starting around hour 159. But the trend on the model runs is not promising for local snow lovers.

    • sedsinkc

      The snow in N MO on your map is in the warm air advection regime of the storm. In KC, we would be getting a sleet to freezing rain to rain transition during this time frame. 144 hours is 6 a.m. Thursday.

  • stjoeattorney

    I WILL BE THE HOPEFUL ONE. WE WILL GET A BOUT OF SNOW OR SLEET UP HERE BUT BY UNDAY IT WILL BE MELTED AWAY. 75-100 MILES CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WLD. I THINK IF SLEET ACCUM. IS LOW WE GET 7-11 INCHES UP HER SOUTH KCMO A DUSTING, THAT DRAMATIC A CUT OFF IN 60 MILES.

    WE WILL HAVE A WARM TO HOT MARCH LIKE LAST YEAR PUTTING US ON THE ROAD TO CONTINUED DROUGHT.

  • sedsinkc

    12z GFS run shows some potential for the most significant icing in this area that we have seen in several years. It will depend on how much below freezing we are overnight Wednesday. GFS gives the KC area from 1/2 to 3/4 inches of liquid from start of precip until it definitely changes over to plain rain Thursday morning. If temps are around 30 to 32 overnight Wed, then it won’t be bad. If it’s below 30 there could be some ice accumulation on trees and power lines. Don’t know what the ECMWF is saying about all this. This could all change on later model runs.

    • Dobber

      “Definitely changes over to all rain”, long ways out chief

      • sedsinkc

        Yup I agree. If it doesn’t change to rain we’re in trouble.

      • sedsinkc

        Based on this run, it will change to rain, as it shows the freezing line retreating to the Iowa border. We know how fickle the models are and we’re still almost 6 days away. Model projections could change a lot.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    Still is showing a good storm, but ice on top of snow

  • Skylar

    If you like snow, look at the 372 hour of the GFS. That shows 2 feet of snow on the northwest side of the city in 12 hours. There’s probably a <0% chance it'll happen, but still. :)

    "http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&quot;

  • Skylar

    Oops, I forgot to put quotes around this. If you like snow, look at the 372 hour of the GFS, it shows 2 feet of snow on the northwest side of the city in 12 hours. There’s probably a <0% chance it'll happen, but still. :)

    "http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&quot;

  • FenderBender

    Just bring on the rain. You don’t have to shovel it once its done.

  • Skylar

    My comments keep getting eaten, so I’ll only try one more time. Even if we don’t get any snow from the storm next week, there are still several chances showing up afterwards. The entire accumulated precip from the GFS for the next 16 days showed 3-5″ across the region. One storm at the very end showed parts of the KC metro getting 2 feet of snow in 12 hours; that’s obviously not going to happen, but still. :)

    • RickMckc

      I’ve noticed the same thing, Skylar – the longer range for the past 5 days has looked much wetter than in recent months.

      I’ve also noticed the GFS run-to-run flip-flopping between too warm/cold enough for snow. I wouldn’t rule anything out based on it alone. Curious to hear what the Euro says. At least it’s nice to have something to follow.

      I’ve greatly enjoyed the civil tone of comments and debate over the past week. Nicely done everyone.

  • FARMERMIKE

    ITS GOING TO SNOW CAUSE I AM PUTTING THE SNOW BLOWER UP AND GETTIN THE GARDEN TILLER OUT. THINK I WILL JUST DO A LITTLE GARDEN WORK THIS WEEKEND MAYBE EVEN PLANT SOME STUFF
    I SHOULD SEE 12″ OR MORE AFTER THAT………..

  • mattmaisch

    The 12Z ECMWF literally projects the center of the ULL to go 450 miles north of where it projected it 12 hours ago. If you are hoping for snow, this is a very bad sign, like, as in, as bad a sign as there could be. Uggh.

    • MikeL

      When I looked at that earlier and saw the ULL in South Dakota the first thing I did was check to see if it was the right map (it was). Didn’t expect to see that…

    • sedsinkc

      I haven’t found a good website yet for viewing Euro data, so I’ll ask you…does the most recent Euro track forecast lessen the ice potential as well?

    • sedsinkc

      I think MikeL just answered my question.

  • stjoeattorney

    OFTEN IF THE ULL GOES 450 MILES NORTH A SECOND LOW IS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH CREATING WHAT WAS CALLED A DOUBLE BARELLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM YEARS AGO. WILL THAT HAPPEN IN 5-6 DAYS??

  • Skylar

    New NAM gives around 1″ of snow along and west of the state line from Omaha to Miami county.

  • stjoeattorney

    new blog