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Three Strikes And You’re Out

Good morning bloggers,

I titled this blog entry “Three Strikes And You’re Out” because one of our models continues to swing and miss when it comes to storm systems near KC.  The GFS model is the one model that has no snow on Christmas Eve at the moment. The other models have snow multiple times in the next two weeks. Let’s take a look by beginning with the Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line.

Kansas City Holiday Weather Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny & dry.  High:  57°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly sunny with light southwest winds under 10 mph.  High:  58°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny and dry.  Light southeast winds.  High:  51°
  • Thursday:  Increasing clouds with a chance of sprinkles.  High:  63°
  • Friday:  Mostly cloudy. High:  35°
  • Saturday:  Partly cloudy. High:  31°
  • Christmas Eve:  Cloudy with a chance of snow.  High:  25°
  • Christmas Day:  Partly cloudy with a a few snow showers possible.  High:  23°

Strike 1:  Thursday Night-Friday Storm

1There is a storm, that will be dropping into the southwest and western states by Wednesday. This system is then forecast to become positively tilted, tilted from northeast to southwest, and split into pieces.  The northern part is forecast to come out over the plains states northwest of Kansas City, with a southwest part of the trough hanging back over the 4-corners states.  This storm will likely produce bands of snow across many states from New Mexico and Colorado northeast across Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  The GFS swings and misses on this one for Kansas City, but so does the European Model. The Canadian model did produce on the second hang back system, but it has no support from the other models.

What happens next is now becoming a rather frustrating thing to monitor.  The GFS swings and misses again on this Christmas Eve storm system that seems as if there is potential for snow in KC. The swing and miss comes with how the model lines up the upper level trough. It would not take much for this to line up for a white Christmas in KC. Take a look at the difference:

2

The GFS model, shown above, valid Christmas Eve morning, shows a trough carving out over the plains states. Other models carve out this trough farther west. If it drops in where I drew my line, then snow is likely on Christmas Eve. The European Model came to bat and hit a triple off the wall. This model produced a band of 3 to 8 inches of snow near Kansas City for the second model run in a row. The Canadian model hit a double down the line and produced a few inches of snow. The GFS model swings and misses for Kansas City again, so strike two on the GFS model.

So, the count is now 0-2 for the GFS model. The third storm showing up on the models is one that is predicted to show up between Christmas and New Years, and another one right after the first of the year. The GFS model is swinging at a pitch down the middle, and it hit a base hit on both storms. Now, we have to wait and see what actually happens.

GFS Snowfall Forecast: Next Ten Days

gfs_asnow_us_41

There have been model runs that literally have Kansas City as the only spot with no snow.  At least on this model we share the no snow with St. Louis.

Now, is this model right. It is such a tough battle, and so difficult to go through this day after day. But, there is nothing we can do about it.  Maybe we, the weather and snow enthusiasts, are about to get our reward for being patient.  The new models will be coming in soon. The thing to monitor is that trough this weekend. Will it form farther west?

gfs_T2m_us_30

An Arctic Blast is forecast to affect areas from Iowa northward. We will be discussing this in more detail in the coming days.  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020 blog and join in the conversation.

Gary

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