Quantcast

Three Storm Systems

Good Saturday morning bloggers,

We are tracking three storm systems the next 7 days as we sit about 17″ below average precipitation.  We need a wet weather pattern to bring us out of this and three storm systems would, in most cases, be what the doctor ordered.  However, these storm systems are not going to come close to what we need.  We will have to watch #3 next weekend as it could bring some decent moisture.

Storm #1 is for today and it is what Gary likes to call a “Cloud Storm”.  This means it is bringing clouds and maybe a sprinkle or flurry.  There is activtity on ESP, but most of it is virga.  It is evaporting before it reaches the ground.

MAP#1: LIVE ESP FROM 7 AM

After this weak storm system moves by, a cold front will sweep across the area tonight with a period of low clouds and a temperature drop to the teens by Sunday morning.   Sunday will be sunny with highs in the low 30s, 10 degrees colder than today.

MAP #2:  3 PM SATURDAY

MAP #3: 9 AM SUNDAY

Today is storm system #1 and it looks good on paper, but is bringing just clouds and sprinkles/flurries.

MAP #4: UPPER LEVEL FLOW 6 AM SATURDAY

We then turn our attention to storm systems #2 and #3.  #2 is for Wednesday-Thursday and will most likely stay south.  If it can turn north when it is farther west, then we could get in on the comma head and receive some rain, .10″ to .50″ if we maximize the storm.  The chance of seeing any measurable rain is 20%.

Storm #3 is for next weekend.  The latest data has a decent amount of rain then some snow next weekend.  We will see about this one as it is 7 days away and it will look different many more times.  Whether we see any precipitation with this storm, it will be followed by a cold blast.

MAP #5: UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT…SYSTEMS #2 AND #3

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Penner

 

Share and Enjoy:
  • Print
  • Digg
  • StumbleUpon
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo! Buzz
  • Twitter
  • Google Bookmarks

43 comments to Three Storm Systems

  • Freeze Miser

    Will there be any chance for ice with storms 2 and 3? I am wondering because you are describing rain to snow events. Who remembers that horrible ice storm in January several years ago during which so many lost power? It was pretty at first and then just one long cold pain!

  • stl78

    Great job as always Jeff! THX. anyone care to pick the superbowl winner?

  • NorthlandKB

    Light snow just started falling up at I-29/Barry. 36.3 degrees.

  • Emaw

    Not trying to knit-pick here, but is it necessary to refer to these non events as “storms”? By definition it’s not a storm for us at all, it’s a cloudy, seasonal day in January , nothing more, nothing less. Must everything be sensationalized to the enth degree these days?

    • Kansa

      I don’t believe that there is an attempt to sensationalize here. My understanding is that the term “storm” may have different implications and meaning to a meteorologist than to a layperson.

    • HeatMiser

      I’m not really sure what you’re talking about. A storm is a storm whether it hits you or not. Are you saying Hurricane Sandy was not a storm because it didn’t hit us? What else would you call a storm that misses us. Oh yeah, a storm.

  • Weatherfreak01

    Jeff,
    It has been longer that as we moved here in ’05 and have not experienced a decent ice storm yet. I think I heard that the last decent sized ice storm was in either ’03 or ’01.

    • HeatMiser

      The last significant ice storm that I remember for our area was the one that hit in the winter of 2001/2002

    • Skylar

      There’s was a less severe ice storm in 2007; temperatures rose just above freezing before anything excessive was able to accumulate however.

    • sedsinkc

      Last severe ice storm for immediate KC metro occurred Jan. 29-31, 2002. Widespread power outages lasting several days across the city. Also had a moderate ice storm in KC proper Dec. 10-11, 2007. This same storm caused a severe ice storm NW of Kansas City, including in St. Joseph. At my location about 5 miles north of downtown KC, the Dec. 2007 storm caused some tree limb damage and scattered power outages in my neighborhood.

  • hobart

    I hope we don’t have another major ice storm for many years to come. I lived through the October surprise snow storm, and, a few years later, a major ice storm. I seem to remember that being in February or March, but I could be wrong. Both times I was without power for five days and had major tree damage.
    Ice storms are very very bad.

  • Emaw

    Look out of your window is this a storm? Was there a storm in west Texas the last couple of days, yes, key word WAS. What do you call a storm that falls apart before it gets here? A cloudy day!

    • HeatMiser

      Emaw isn’t the brightest bulb in the box. It’s a storm, whether it’s a small storm or a large storm. Just because a storm doesn’t hit your area because it passes to the south of you doesn’t mean it’s not a storm. What else would you call it…a marshmallow? A cow? No, it’s a storm that passed to the south of you.

  • Smokey

    The ice storm to which everyone is referring occurred January 29-31 2002. Our family lived in northwest Oklahoma at the time and we had friends in rural areas without power for six weeks. Here is a wikipedia link about the storm.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Central_Plains_ice_storm

  • Emaw

    Are we going to get personal now? What’s it it doing to the south of us right now? Is it still storming down there? It should be if it passed us by to the south. Maybe you’re a little dim if you don’t comprehend.

  • Emaw

    And yeah i know they’re having thunderstorms on the gulf coast, my point all along is it’s not a storm for our viewing area! It storms somewhere everyday on this earth, should be41 lead their weathercast every day with, well it’s going to be stormy today somewhere!

  • McCabe58

    It’s a storm.

  • Theo

    Jeff, is storm #3 a cutoff low or is that in the southern jet?

  • Emaw

    I know it’s a storm, on the gulf coast .

  • HeatMiser

    They are discussing each storm as it crosses the middle part of the U.S. Each storm has the potential to impact days ahead of it getting here. Some will hit us, some won’t…but each storm that crosses the country is discussed.

  • Emaw

    That’s fine, it just seems like things get a little over done sometimes, that’s all I was trying to convey. There really wasn’t any need to get personal though, it was just my opinion.

  • Emaw

    Much appreciated.

  • stl78

    NICE!!! good work guys.

  • rred95

    If today is a storm in kc , then we have a storm about 65% of the time.

  • west shawnee

    Any updates or new maps for storms 2 and 3?

    • sedsinkc

      Here is total precip map on most recent (18z) NAM run. It shows zilch here in KC through 84 hours, which for current run is midnight Tuesday night. NAM only goes out 84 hours. Next GFS run will start downloading next hour.
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/18/nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif”

    • sedsinkc

      Here is the 500 millibar heights and vorticity map from the current NAM, showing storm #2 well to our southwest over northern Mexico near El Paso at 84 hours. Storm #3 is still off the NW US coast:
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/18/nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif”

  • sedsinkc

    Hope this works. This is a loop from the new (18z) GFS run showing how the 500 millibar heights and vorticity progress at 3 hour intervals. You can stop, rock, or step the animation using the buttons at the top. NAM has an equivalent feature. I just picked this particular panel at random, you can pick any model parameter from the GFS or NAM main page and do the same thing.
    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php”

    • sedsinkc

      Not working for me. Here are two static images for 500 mb vort at 117 hours (Thurs, 9 a.m.) and 123 hours (Thurs, 3 p.m.) this is for storm #2
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_117_500_vort_ht.gif”
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_123_500_vort_ht.gif”

      Now here are static images for the same two hour intervals showing 6 hour precip, temp at 850 millibars, and surface air pressure.
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_117_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_123_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif”

      Lastly, here is total precip from now thru hour 123 of GFS.
      “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_123_precip_ptot.gif”

      The bottom line is, GFS forecasts us to get less than 1/4 inch of precip from storm #2, and it will be too warm for snow so it will be rain. That’s just this model on the current run. Of course it will change.

  • sedsinkc

    Here is something interesting. I was perusing the daily climate reports for KCI and noticed that NWS has decreased the KCI seasonal snowfall total by 0.9 inches, from 4.6 inches to 3.7 inches. Maybe there was a mistake reporting 2.1 inches of snow Monday and the actual number should have been 1.2 inches?

  • blueflash

    That is very unusual, I looked at the December monthly report and they changed it too, to 3.7 inches. I wonder how you go back after 6 days and remeasure the snow?

    • sedsinkc

      The monthly climate report shows they changed Monday’s snowfall from 2.1 inches to 1.2 inches.

    • sedsinkc

      Someone at the NWS office must have determined the 2.1 inch measurement was an error. I sent a message to NWS Pleasant Hill via their facebook page asking for some elaboration on the change, but haven’t heard anything from them yet.

  • Kcchamps

    our best hopes of some snow looks to be from storm #3, still almost 7 days away

  • sansherm

    Jeff, when will you update the online forecast and where did George move to?

  • McCabe58

    Hate boring weather weeks… Nothing to talk about

    • Bananny

      Agreed. It is also hard to even look at anything beyond 3 days out. They all fail to make it here. The 50% chances become 30% then 20% then taken off the forecast all-together. This being said, we at least have more than we had last year at this time. AND next cycle through hopefully we get more of the weather we did have.