This Weekend Storm & Next Week’s Bigger Risk

Good morning bloggers,

A storm system is moving into the plains today. There is a small enhanced slight risk area that we will discuss in a minute. A much more significant severe weather risk is likely later this month as many of you have been discussion and wondering about in recent blog comments. One of the bigger forecasts we made using the LRC for around April 28th, give or take a day or two, is now showing up on the models and we will discuss this today as well. I am speaking at the big NPGA Southeastern Conference & International Propane Expo tomorrow morning. Weather2020 is the featured weather company for long range weather forecasting at this conference. I will let you know how it is received as we discuss the cycling weather pattern.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly cloudy and staying dry. High: 56° Some rain may get into the south side of the metro this evening
  • Tonight: Rain spreads into communities south of KC. It may get as far north as I-70 or a bit more. Northern Missouri will stay dry.
  • Saturday: Rain ends early. High 57°

Today’s Risk:


The enhanced slight risk is located near the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma/Texas border. Farther north there will be a well defined cut-off line for rain. Take a look at these two rainfall forecasts with that cut-off line forecast to set up near I-70:

Screen Shot 2017-04-21 at 6.37.46 AM

The European Model above and the GFS model below have come into somewhat of an agreement.


Let’s monitor this weekend storm closely. And, let’s now look ahead to next weeks much bigger potential for severe weather.

The LRC & Late April

We have never quite shown the LRC this way with storm reports from the past. What I am showing here is an actual two day outbreak that happened in the last cycle. Usually I show this type of comparison after the next cycle or two produced similar results. I hope that this doesn’t materialize, but we have high confidence that the risks will be increasing later next week as the pattern continues to cycle as described by the LRC in the 56 to 61 day range centered on around 58-59 days. These two maps below show the storm reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC):



There were 72 tornado reports in the outbreak on day 1 on February 28th and another 18 on day 2 of this severe weather outbreak. There were over 1200 severe weather reports during this two day event. The same areas will likely be targeted again, but there should be a seasonal westward shift just a bit which will bring the risk into part of tornado alley.

LRC Cycle 4 April 28 GFS

This forecast map above shows the “dangerous” energy dropping into the southern Rocky Mountains right on April 28th, one week from today. This will likely help set up the surface conditions for another two to three day severe weather risk over the plains and extending into the Mississippi River Valley once again. Let’s not get too specific yet.

Have a great Friday. The LLTI could go into effect for this first storm as I am on my way to the airport now. Have a great weekend. I will check in sometime later today or tomorrow. And, don’t panic about the Royals. Their starting pitching has been so great. Their relief pitching has been very good. Their hitting has been the worst in Major League baseball. I suggest a couple of line up changes to stir it up, but Ned Yost is very stubborn. But, his consistency has paid off in the past.


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