There Is Something About This Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City just had its second coldest Halloween high temperature in recorded history with a high of 37° at KCI Airport. Snow fell in many areas, but I am still waiting to see my first snowflake of the season.  It titled the blog, “There is Something About This Pattern” because, well, there is something about this pattern that I find just fascinating, but I have not quite put my LRC fingerprint on it yet. What is developing right before our eyes is a unique pattern, one that has never happened before,  and one that I think will provide some weather set ups that will perform this winter to our satisfaction. And by that, I mean that we won’t be getting to March and wondering how Kansas City once again missed just about everything, like the past three winters.

The Weather Pattern Valid At 7 PM Central Time Today:


There is a pretty large upper level circulation over North America developing right now. The ridges (the squiggly lines) are in favorable position to produce an Arctic air mass. But, is one forming?


An Arctic air mass is forecast to grow during this next week. This map above shows the temperature forecast from last nights GFS model valid next Wednesday morning.  The white areas indicate 20 to 40 degrees below zero.  The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are going higher into the positive territory right now:

Screen Shot 2017-11-01 at 7.00.31 AM

The big question I have and we are still monitoring, “is this pattern capable of producing strong upper ridges and upper highs over Greenland? I lean towards this answer to being yes, but we have to see it actually happen first, and not on the models, but actually happen in real time.  This next forecast map is just one of those fantasy 16-day forecasts from a computer model, this one the GFS model from the overnight 06z 1 AM model run (Next week 06z will be midnight central time after the time change).


As you can see in the squiggly line. A big ridge forms right over Greenland, and an upper high is closed off near the North Pole north of Alaska.  This would likely be the beginning of a huge dip of the NAO and AO into negative territory, but will this happen?  It is something to monitor.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

The temperatures warmed up to 38 degrees before sunrise from the early evening 32 degrees from yesterday.  This warm up was spawned by a nice southerly breeze that developed over the plains last night.  This warm up should continue into Thursday.

  • Today: Mostly cloudy. High:  55°
  • Tonight:  Mostly cloudy.  Low:  49°
  • Thursday: A few periods of clouds mixed with sunshine. The wind shifting to the north during the afternoon.  High:  64°

There is a lot to monitor in this developing weather pattern.  Let us know if you have any questions.  Thank you for sharing and participating in the Action Weather Blog Experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to Weather2020.com and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation.

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