The Wild Winter Weather Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

The WWW pattern continues, or rather the Wild Winter Weather pattern.  This has been just one functional storm after another, and KC has been impacted. We are in the part of the cycling pattern that was active in both previous cycles of the LRC.  And, in the next week we are going into the part of the pattern that produced the St. Louis 9″ snowstorm.  We called it “The St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” because of how rare it was to have any accumulating snow so early in St. Louis.  They officially had snow on the 12th, 14th, and 15th for a total of 5.1″ officially, and 9″ in the St. Louis metro area.  Farther west, Kansas City had 1.3″ on November 8th and 0.5″ on November 12th for two early measurable snows as well.  This part of the pattern included a wet storm on November 4th to 5th which is what we are experiencing today.  The “St. Louis snowstorm part of the cycling pattern” is what comes in between Thursday and Tuesday.   We will discuss this below, as most of the models have a rather substantial snowstorm in the area within one week from now.

The Current Weather Pattern

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This years LRC continues to produce very cold air.  Today’s upper level flow features a rather unusual ridge aloft stretching from west of Hawaii northeast to the North Pole.  This ridging is allowing for high pressure to continue to be generated over Canada. This causes clear skies and light winds way up there, and it is dark at this time of the year all day and night. This provides the conditions for radiational cooling, and thus the build up of the Arctic air and the maintaining of that cold Arctic air mass.  And, there is a strong southern branch of the jet stream.  A storm is moving out into the plains today, and this can be traced to the November 4th storm that produced significant rain in the KC metro area then, and it is again today.

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 6.16.01 AM

Snow was reported at KCI Airport at 5 and 6 AM as an area of rain moves in from the south and changes over to a winter type north of downtown KC. This storm is so close to being a major winter storm in KC, and it will become one just north and northeast of KC.  A solid area of rain is moving in as I am writing this, and the rain/snow line is shifting north. Some spots within 30 miles of the Iowa border of northern Missouri will see accumulating snow today.  And, then it will be onto the next part of the cycling pattern.

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Within the next week, this next part of the cycling pattern is right on schedule. Now, for KC, remember, we did have two small snows from this system as the energy went around KC and blasted St. Louis. We will get, what Gary England 10 years ago explained the LRC as, “The Same, But Different”.  The same pattern will produce its February version of this part of the pattern.  It fits the LRC perfectly, is right on schedule and has been in our forecast for this next week for months now, and the specifics of what will happen will be realized within a week. Take a look at the European Model solution for one week from now:

f5weather (2)

And, here is the FVS GFS model:

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Both the European and the FV3 GFS models, and other models match up as well, show this storm being bigger and more wide spread than the November version. The December version of this storm was very wet just after Christmas, and I have confidence that a very wet storm will form when this begins developing later this week and moves out into the plains in less than a week.

The WWW pattern continues.  Spring will be quite sweet and smell so good when it gets here. For now, it is a wild winter weather pattern that will continue until further notice.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A 100% chance of rain.  Snow and sleet up north of I-70 will change to rain, with snow accumulating just a couple counties north of KC.  3 to 4 inches of snow are possible 50 miles north of KC.  High:  34°
  • Tonight:  Rain tapering off to dizzle, then a chance of some snow before it ends early Tuesday. The winds shifting to the north at 10-20 mph with temperatures dropping to below freezing, around 28°. Some refreezing is likely with some slick spots.
  • Tuesday:  Some sunshine breaking out with north winds 10-20 mph. High: 38°
  • Wednesday:  Mostly sunny. High:  53°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to learn more and share in this weather experience. So many of our weather enthusiast friends are helping add insight and fun each day, so thank you for you participation.

Have a great day,

Gary

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