The Wet Pattern Continues

Good morning bloggers,

The weather we experienced yesterday produced some rather great moments to see natural art in the sky.  KSHB-TV Meteorologist Gerard Jebaily snapped this picture from down west of Ottawa, KS late yesterday afternoon:


The structure of this storm was similar to other weaker thunderstorms closer to KC as you can see below near Overland Park, KS:


Look at all of those layers as this non severe thunderstorm tracked across areas of the KC metro.  And, then look at this incredible picture taken by Travis in Desoto, KS.  He tweeted this picture out capturing the double rainbow and lightning forking out across the sky:


What is going on with this current pattern?  The weather pattern continues to cycle perfectly according to the LRC, and it is being influenced by some blocking that has developed in early May near Greenland.  There is an upper level storm near Yuma, AZ this morning, and this energy will be ejected out into the plains during the next two days:


As this storm ejects out, severe weather, bands of heavy thunderstorms, complexes of thunderstorms, and cold rain and snow will be forming over the plains and southern Rocky Mountains.  The risks of severe weather and the location of the highest flooding risks will still depend on how the surface pattern sets up.  The surface pattern has been influenced by all of the rain and thunderstorms and here was a quick analysis I plotted from 7:30 AM this morning:


The risk today is now upgraded to a moderate risk over the Texas Panhandle extending into western Oklahoma:


Here in Kansas City, we will monitor where these thunderstorms develop today. Since tonights activity will be associated with that upper low kicking out, the thunderstorms will more likely hold together as they move into eastern Kansas later tonight into early Wednesday.  Wednesday’s risk of severe weather will then be influenced by how extensive the thunderstorms will be tonight into early in the day tomorrow.  Most of the models have KC in south winds on Wednesday afternoon with a dewpoint surge into the middle to upper 60s.  The front would then move across around 10 PM Wednesday evening, and we will have to watch this closely. Only one model, the NAM model does not do this, and this model shifts the winds to the northwest earlier on Wednesday.  Since it is the only model to do that, I lean against that solution.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms tapering off later this morning. High:  64°
  • Tonight:  Rain and thunderstorms developing west and moving in later tonight into early Wednesday:  Low:  61°
  • Wednesday-Wednesday night:  Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms.  A few severe thunderstorms are possible during the evening if that front lines up west of KC.  High:  74°
  • Thursday:  Mostly cloudy and much cooler with a chance of drizzle or showers.  High: 55°

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