The Weekend Storm & A Look Into July

Good Thursday morning bloggers,

Good morning bloggers,

The weekend storm is rather fascinating as it doesn’t even exist at this moment. In today’s blog we will look at the rainfall total differences from the models. And, we will also look at July as some of you have asked how many 100 degree days will there be and will it come with moisture. I will end this blow with the LRC model July forecast based on a blended cycle computer model that has been performing well.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Sunny and beautiful. High: 62°
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with rain likely and a few thunderstorms possible. Low: 49°
  • Friday: Mostly cloudy early with rain ending before sunrise. Then, sunny and warmer. High: 67°

This weeks storm system:

500

The storm that is being advertised for the weekend isn’t even close to existing yet. The 500 mb forecast map above is valid at 7 PM this evening. A series of disorganized waves in a negatively tilted trough is heading out into the plains. The waves of energy that will carve out the weekend storm can’t even be found yet on this forecast map. By Friday the pattern becomes favorable for a rapidly deepening storm system over the Rocky Mountain states. This storm will form, intensify, and then track out towards Missouri. There are subtle differences in the models as we move through the weekend into Monday.

 

Model Differences

The map above shows the European Model 500 mb forecast at 7 AM Monday. The upper low is forecast to take a track across Kansas into northern Missouri up near the Iowa border. The Canadian model has a very similar track, but even a bit farther south. The GFS model has a farther northwest track and as a result has much less rain from this system over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Remember, once again, this storm doesn’t even exist yet, so we will have to at least wait until it forms on Friday or Friday night before we can get a better feeling on where it will actually track. If it tracks farther northwest the dry slot will track farther northwest and other parameters, such as the surface low, will track farther north and west which will impact where the heaviest rainfall will be located.

Precipitation Forecast From The Models:

Screen Shot 2017-04-27 at 7.23.18 AM

GFS Model

Canadian Model

These are three of the models from last nights data. The top forecast is the European model, then the GFS model, then the Canadian model.

Kansas City Totals:

  • European Model: 3.00″
  • GFS Model: 1.25″
  • Canadian Model: 4.10″

It will be fun to watch the models come in this morning. Speaking of models, take a look at this one for July. This is the LRC blended forecast model showing Kansas City’s forecast high temperatures for July. Remember it is a model that has been performing well. And, remember it has not hit 100 degrees at KCI in almost four full summers. Only one hundred degree or higher day on September 8, 2013.

Screen Shot 2017-04-27 at 7.30.55 AM

With the hotter July forecast, the chance of above average rainfall is low.

Have a great Thursday. And, thank you for participating in this weather experience and the LRC Forecast experience. This weekends storm is right on schedule 59 days after the late February version of this pattern and 118 days after the early January part of this cycling pattern. Both of those previous cycles produced severe weather outbreaks east and southeast of Kansas City, and the January version was quite cold.

Gary

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