The Week Ahead and Changing Pattern

Good Sunday bloggers,

It is hard to believe it is about to become October and today is the last Royals game of the season, time is flying. As we head into October a new and unique weather pattern will begin to evolve. And, right on schedule before the next seven days are over, we may have witnessed something new in the weather.

Let’s go day by day into next weekend.

SUNDAY MORNING: We have a front stalled in the region and it is playing havoc with the temperature forecast. . Here is the surface map from early Sunday, quite a contrast. Temperatures ranged from the 40s in Nebraska to 70s in Oklahoma.


SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The front will be near KC and look at the difference between Maryville, MO and downtown KC. Northern Missouri will be in the 50s and 60s with scattered showers and drizzle. Highs will be around 80° and partly to mostly cloudy from KC and points south.


TUESDAY: The front will lift to the north as a warm front. So, all locations in our region will be in the low to mid 80s. It will be windy with periods of clouds and there may be a shower or two.


WEDNESDAY: The front from today will be in the Great Lakes as our area is windy, hot and humid. A new cold front will approach from the west and this is the start of something different.


THURSDAY: The front will stall near I-70 Wednesday night and then lift back to the north Thursday as a warm front. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday along the new warm front. This front is heading north as a storm system tracks out of the Rockies, bringing a new cold front.


FRIDAY: The cold front from Thursday will head southeast and stall. Rain and thunderstorms will form along this front. If we were in the old pattern this front would blow through with some locations seeing decent rain and other locations seeing nothing. But, this is the start of a new pattern.


SATURDAY: Wait, what is this? The front is stalled and there are rain and thunderstorms from the southwest Plains to Great Lakes. Yes, a widespread rain event. It has been a long, long time since we have been able to show a map like this.


RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS: This is also new. 2″ to 4″ of rain from Oklahoma to Michigan with most falling after Wednesday.


Remember, this is a new pattern, so it is not set in stone and our confidence is in the moderate category. However, our confidence is increasing as every model is showing this and they all keep showing it as we get closer.

The weather has a chance to actually become exciting, but let’s see how this looks as we go through the next few days.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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