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The Weather Pattern Is Still A Dry One

Good morning bloggers,

We have had some rain and snow in recent weeks, but the overall precipitation has been rather low. KCI Airport has one of the lower totals, but it still represents the below average precipitation that has fallen in most areas. There was that one wet storm that produced significant flooding in areas southeast of Kansas City recently, but besides that one storm we have still had these systems struggle to produce wide spread rainfall.

The next storm system will move across the area on Thursday. This type of storm would usually produce a very good chance of rain, but it is still caught in this year’s pattern. A negatively tilted upper level wave will pass by tomorrow evening as you can see below:

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There will likely be a thick band of clouds move across, but we are keeping rain probabilities low.  I have plotted the surface map below drawing in some of the ridges and troughs. When we learn how to draw these features in synoptic meteorology lab in college you draw in ridges with a squiggly line and troughs with a black dashed line:

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Notice how the rain forecast for Thursday afternoon by this model is forecast to form inside  that surface ridge which will make it somewhat suspect.  The best chance of rain may come on Easter Sunday. There is a weak and small scale storm system forecast to move across the plains and affect us later this weekend.

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The jet stream is forecast to retreat way to the north, and this will limit any severe weather potential for a few of these weak systems.  This Easter Sunday storm is still a bit suspect and the track of this system will continue to be in question for another few days.

Have a great Wednesday. It will be a windy and much warmer day. The winds will be gusting as high as around 40 mph this afternoon creating a high fire danger.

Gary

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19 comments to The Weather Pattern Is Still A Dry One

  • batman

    What does Memorial Day weekend look like? Using the LRC can you make a forecast for the holiday weekend? I know a lot of people would be interested in that forecast!

    • AW

      Little rain and 80′s. Sunny memorial day. From Accuweather.

      -AW

      • Memorial Day weekend will be at the beginning of a very active and wet period. The stormiest weather may come just after Memorial Day into early June. On the Weather2020 App: “Memorial Day may be dry, but the week will have increasing chance of thunderstorms, possibly severe with temperatures near seasonal averages”. This forecast was made 12 weeks ago. I will have to go and check to see if everything is on target according to this most recent LRC cycle.

        Gary

        Gary

    • Drought Miser

      Batman I like how you seem to be keeping on track now with the blog for a bit there I wondered what your post’s would manifest thank you

  • Hume-Dude

    Gary – Is the big ridge out west still affecting our weather pattern? I notice we are still not getting storms to dig in the SW like our classic spring time setups, they all drop in from the NW starved for moisture. Any other year tomorrow would produce a nice widespread 1/2″ , this year forget it. I am starting to see similarities in this year and 2012, although that was much warmer spring and ever drier yet. When was the last time Gary uttered the phrase, ” cut off low , weatherman’s woe”? Gary used to say that once a year at least, can’t remember the last time we were affected by one maybe someone can jog my memory. Here I go drought mongering again….

  • Hume-Dude

    Batman – here is forecast for Joplin, Mo area for that time period using a version of Gary’s LRC, should be good for Lake of the Ozarks region too.

    May 18th-24th:

    Mild and dry the first half of the week. Then warming up with thunderstorm chances for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

    May 25th-31st:

    Warm with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Thursday. The rest of the week looks pretty good.

    • Dobber

      Where did you come across this forecast?

      • Hume-Dude

        It is put together by a former contemporary of Gary’s that works for the CBS affiliate out of Joplin. He also studies the cycling weather pattern and puts out a blog about it for the Joplin area, he is very knowledgeable about cycling weather patterns. It is applicable here, but you have to consider they are 125 miles away so the forecast is not always right on for here in KC. Since my farm is right between KC and Joplin I listen to both and average the forecast

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Gary,
    Is Easter Sunday’s storm another negative tilt storm or is this even possible yet to figure out since it’s still off shore???

    • It is going to be a weak and slow moving system caught south of a retreating jet stream. The jet stream will dive back south sometime next week.

  • Pete Capone

    Happy Drought Day Adrian and D-bomb!

  • f00dl3

    Isn’t it about time for the revised Spring forecast mentioning the drought is back?

  • yourmom

    The Easter bunny will have to go hopping down the trail a little early this year.

  • OlatheMatt

    I am curious to know what life is like for a met out in say socal. We deal with severe weather and winter weather. They seem to stay pretty constant and dry most of the year. Is the workload a lot easier out there?

    • Think about it, exactly. It is so much easier for the meteorologists on television in Los Angeles. They don’t have to deal with so many things, including severe weather, winter storms, etc.

      • KUweatherman

        Personally, I think forecasting on Oahu in Hawaii is where it’s at. One could forecast 80°/73° with a 30% of rain every day and be right 9/10 times, haha.

  • blue8091

    What is up with all this wind!! I am beyond being burned out on it!! Is there relief in sight? All these years living in KS and living with wind…but it seems out of control this year…winter and now into spring. I pray we do not have winds like this all year!

  • Drought Miser

    Ummm Folk’s we are 25 inches below normal rainfall in the last three years here at KCI, and probably some surrounding areas. .. this is a cycle folk’s and to think that some how magically in May it breaks well ummm and we have a major pattern shift a hem me thinks not!!
    I did like Gary ‘ s tumble weeds in his illustrations tonight showing are below normal past three year’s and this year’s total isn’t exactly on track let’s pray for a shift we need it folks. …