Good morning bloggers,
We have had some rain and snow in recent weeks, but the overall precipitation has been rather low. KCI Airport has one of the lower totals, but it still represents the below average precipitation that has fallen in most areas. There was that one wet storm that produced significant flooding in areas southeast of Kansas City recently, but besides that one storm we have still had these systems struggle to produce wide spread rainfall.
The next storm system will move across the area on Thursday. This type of storm would usually produce a very good chance of rain, but it is still caught in this year’s pattern. A negatively tilted upper level wave will pass by tomorrow evening as you can see below:
There will likely be a thick band of clouds move across, but we are keeping rain probabilities low. I have plotted the surface map below drawing in some of the ridges and troughs. When we learn how to draw these features in synoptic meteorology lab in college you draw in ridges with a squiggly line and troughs with a black dashed line:
Notice how the rain forecast for Thursday afternoon by this model is forecast to form inside that surface ridge which will make it somewhat suspect. The best chance of rain may come on Easter Sunday. There is a weak and small scale storm system forecast to move across the plains and affect us later this weekend.
The jet stream is forecast to retreat way to the north, and this will limit any severe weather potential for a few of these weak systems. This Easter Sunday storm is still a bit suspect and the track of this system will continue to be in question for another few days.
Have a great Wednesday. It will be a windy and much warmer day. The winds will be gusting as high as around 40 mph this afternoon creating a high fire danger.