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The Weather Calms Down As July Comes To An End

Good Sunday Bloggers,

In today’s Sunday blog we are going to share with you our experimental model for KC and Seattle, WA. Let’s begin with our experimental precipitation forecast model.  This first graph shows the probabilities for each day in August

Screen Shot 2017-07-30 at 8.02.11 AM

We have blended all previous cycles to see how a blend would work, and we have had some very good results with our model out performing climatology 80 to 90% of zip codes in the United States.  What you are seeing on this graph above is the chance of rain based on all previous cycles, but we have added a few other experimental factors that seem to enhance the probabilities a bit too much. This is our first effort at a precipitation forecast model.

The take aways for KC:

  • Every month this year has trended towards having a dry first half of the month and a wet second half of the month. This is in the forecast as you can see above
  • When it rains, and rains or snows a lot in previous cycles, then the probabilities will be much higher
  • The blue bars show the climatology, or historic average which shows around a 40% chance on any given day. We believe due to the blending and our X factors that these are elevated a bit, so we have some work to do

Now, remember, this is our first effort to projecting precipitation.  We have experimented and tested various zip codes, and this model is picking out dry weeks and wet weeks very well. The specific forecasts day by day are sometimes spot on, and other times a day or two off.

Screen Shot 2017-07-30 at 8.58.53 AM

This graph above shows the high temperature forecast for August in Kansas City.  As you can see, the potential for a second heat wave of the summer increased towards the middle of the month. Let’s see what happens.

Screen Shot 2017-07-30 at 9.01.21 AM

These next two maps show forecast Cooling Degree Days (CDD) for Kansas City and Seattle.  A way to measure accuracy is to compare the model forecast to what climatology would suggest and forecast.  As you can see that the Weather2020 model forecast out performs climatology for July in this temperature forecast for Cooling Degree Days in Seattle, but it was close for Kansas City.  In Kansas City, the  with two days to go it is close, but it appears Climatology will beat our model on this one.  In Seattle, our model out performs climatology quite well. Now, just look at how the orange line cycles in close to the same phase as the verification. This clearly shows that the pattern is cycling regularly as described since it began last October and November.

Screen Shot 2017-07-30 at 9.15.17 AM

I just wanted to share some of the results we are analyzing right now.  It appears that August will line up like the other months near KC with the best chance of wet weather coming in the second half of the month, with that increased chance of one heat wave.

Have a great Sunday everyone.  It is Sarcoma Celebration of Life day and I am going to celebrate with other cancer survivors and those who are currently battling this rare type of cancer. I had Extra-Skeletal Osteogenic Sarcoma and was diagnosed with a very aggressive tumor 18 years ago this year. It potentially could have killed me in 1999-2000, but I went through surgeries and extensive chemotherapy and I am cured.  It’s in my past, but still incredible.  Have a great day and thank you for sharing in this weather experience.

Gary

 

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