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The “Superstorm Sandy” part of the pattern will return next week

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City continues to be in the wrong spot for any significant precipitation. This latest storm system, that produced significant snow across parts of the upper midwest and Great Lakes states, also produced tornadoes yesterday across parts of the southeast and some snow in Dallas, TX early yesterday morning, and all Kansas City had were a few light rain showers Saturday night.  The next big storm will be developing next week and it will be passing by us early in the week on it’s way into a developing major storm in the eastern states.  This next part of the cycling pattern will be directly related to the part of the pattern that produced Superstorm Sandy at the end of October.  We have been expecting and forecasting this part of the weather pattern to return around the 20th of December and sure enough the computer models are now beginning to predict a major late week storm system near the New Jersey shore. Confidence is high that this will develop later next week as it fits this year’s pattern. In our winter forecast we talked about the winter storm “hot spots” with the main one being over the northeastern states.  Take a look at one of the many solutions that we will likely see in the next few days:

The surface forecast map, above, shows the GFS solution from the 18z model yesterday afternoon.  How this storm will actually develop later next week is still unclear, but the likely timing will be somewhere between the 18th and 20th of December.  This storm falls into the main “hot spot” as described in our Winter Forecast.  Kansas City is not near any of the hot spots and we continue to wait for our first measurable snowfall.  As the energy comes into the pattern next week to help develop this major storm Kansas City may have a little bit of precipitation around Monday or Tuesday, a week from now.

There is another system ahead of this one next week that may bring us a little bit of rain Friday night into early Saturday, but again, this next system moves out of the western states “hot spot” and it moves out into the plains as it goes through a transition.  We will go over the details of these developments on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.

Gary

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38 comments to The “Superstorm Sandy” part of the pattern will return next week

  • Gary,Go over the details now please,as I watch the PBS News Hour at 6:00,and then The Daily Show at 10:00…

    • Kevin,

      I just did! We are not in the right spot, and I will wait on the new data to discuss Friday night’s and early next week’s chance of light precipitation.

  • WxCursed

    Instead of naming snowstorms, this winter we should name the “no storms” that we wait a whole week for and end up really disappointing. It would be fitting to name them after Chiefs players.

  • yewtrees

    On Oct.30, Jerry asked “What will Hurricane Sandy look like when that storm re-appears in a month or two or three, per your cycle theory? That is going to be a WILD winter for the east coast, I presume, given your theory….”

    Gary answered “This part of the pattern will be returning two or three times this winter. A hurricane is just like a shortwave that is part of a much larger pattern. This huge trough is part of the cycling pattern.”

    It verified! Good job, both of you.

    • Nothing has verified yet…Good job both of you??? What does that mean???

    • sedsinkc

      Still nine days out on the models, too soon to crow about verification.

    • sedsinkc

      The 06Z GFS run takes next week’s East Coat storm farther out to sea, with system barely grazing the coast. So yes, there is a big storm present as predicted by the LRC, but as is often an issue with using the LRC in long-range forecasting, the amplitude of the long wave pattern is not the same as in the last cycle so the storm takes a different track. Could still change, 8 days out.

    • Jerry

      How did anything “verify?” Specifically WHAT “verified”?

      Back in October, did Gary indicate when Sandy would return?

      Have evacuation orders been issued?

      • Jerry,

        It won’t be a hurricane this time. But, it’s the “same” pattern and it is cycling. This is what we believe. So, no evacuations necessary, but it doesn’t mean you can’t prepare for a big storm.

  • What is “SandyPropertyClaim/com ?

  • Emaw

    Where’s the AO sitting about now?

  • http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_121028_12.gif Gary,and fellow bloggers…This is the 500mb. map from 10-28-2012…Notice the difference in the pattern/flow across the U.S…. There is a trough across the Miss.river plain,and on Garys map,there is northwest flow instead….So how is this a comparison of the LRC??? These two maps are suppose to look similar… I don,t see it myself…

  • redavis

    Gary: Now that were just 14 days away from Christmas, what opportunites do you see if any of there being any potential for having a white Christmas & receiving at least 1″ of snow. My kids ask me everyday & I just tell them to be patient. Looking at long range forecasts I keep telling myself if may be after the first of the year before we see any accumulating snow. Your thoughts… Thanks

    • mukustink

      Tell your kids 0% chance of a white Christmas. We are in a drought a very seriuos drought. They should be bottling water and stock piling it in the basement! We may not see snow this year or next year. Heck we may not see any measurable rain for months.

    • Tell them,NO SNOW,NO PRESENTS

  • Emaw

    Tush, that’s funny.

  • The KFC forecasted HIGH for rain/t-storms this fri./sat….Why did you not go high also,using the LRC Gary,or your wx team,a week back ???

    • mukustink

      Nancy Drew aka Mikey says that your statement is false. What do you say abut that Mr, President. :(

      • OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!! D’oh…I got confused again…I,m still just President….Miky ,and I can discuss this one on one,if he will post his address…He mentioned the other day that he,d would like to meet some of us at his office(his parents basement)and have a chat,but he has not told us were it is??? signed, Pres.Kevin…. have a good 1. :)

  • dogsinkc

    Well, this would match those long standing models showing snow on the ground for Christmas day, but I am VERYYY skeptical. If we actually even get a few sprinkles out of this ‘storm’, I will eat a pile of cat litter.

  • Emaw

    The Chiefs have a better chance of winning their last 3 games than we do of having snow on the ground for Christmas!

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    So fellow bloggers, I have Dec. 23rd as my prediction for the snowflake contest. How many entries are still left Gary and what did everyone else say for a date? Anyone care to share? Ya I like Tush’s response to EMAW’s post, that made my day lol. :) Redavis, tell your kids that they have about a 10% chance realistically, dont be a grinch like mukustink until the night before Xmas lol. Check out this Tornado video from the severe weather the other day in Florida. http://ulocal.wesh.com/_tornado-over-Indian-River-behind-Boston-Whaler/video/1803035/63272.html?b

  • R-Dub

    So, no one from KSHB will even delete obvious spam like what we got from SandyPropertyClaim and JerseyHurricaneLawyer…no wonder the comment section is such a mess, if they won’t even bother to delete this kind of spam…

  • JohnNCWX

    There is no way this is related to Sandy..Sandy originated from a subtropical low in the southwest atlantic that came from the ITCZ…the storm you are speaking of is coming in from the westerlies crossing the conus. In other words, its coming from a complete different side of the earth…one midlatitude in nature, the other tropical.

    Nuttiness.

    • sedsinkc

      Sandy was a tropical system that got absorbed into what was a developing nor’easter. The LRC deals with extratropical weather systems in the westerlies, not tropical systems. So having another strong storm in the Atlantic at the right time minus a Sandy does not invalidate the LRC theory.

  • JohnNCWX

    Without Sandy It would have just been a cold front with a lagging great lakes low, not a noreaster. Without Sandy it was just another day. Without Sandy there was no storm. Furthermore, how can a cycling pattern regardless of whose name is attached to it affect only midlatitudes when the midlatitudes are directly created by the interactions between the polar region and equatorial region, you know, the coriolis effect? Or does Newton’s law not apply, Seds? You know better.

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