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The Summer Storm Drifts Across Missouri

Good morning bloggers,

The summer storm that impacted a few areas on Independence Day is still alive over Missouri today. Take a look at the surface forecast valid at 4 PM today:

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What you are looking at on this map above is the surface flow. It shows that most of the nation has a weak pressure gradient with light winds in most of the United States today.  The summer pattern of 2017 is fascinating, unique, and has been tough to forecast especially near KC.  Yesterday was certainly a very interesting weather day. The rain that did track near KC as the fireworks were going off was rather spotty and most activities and celebrations went on without much problem at all.  Now, this storm is still close enough for a few rain showers today before it heats up on Thursday.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most of the rain will be south and east of I-35.  High: Near 80°
  • Thursday: Heating up. Mostly sunny with a few clouds during the afternoon. High:  90°

The Cycling Pattern and what is likely next:

LRC Cycle 5 July 6 2This map on the left shows this summer storm falling right into place over the Ohio Valley stretching positively tilted (northeast to southwest) into eastern Oklahoma.  This part of the pattern did not produce wide spread precipitation across the plains all previous cycles which shows the seasonal difference. A weak system in July can be wet, while weak systems in other seasons are more likely going to be drier.  Take a look at LRC Cycle 1 on the right:

LRC Cycle 1 November 12 ZoomThese two parts of the pattern are exactly 236 days apart of a 59 day cycle. It is quite obviously similar when you compare these two maps. The “same pattern but different” as Gary England (former Chief Meteorologist from KWTV in Oklahoma City) stated around a decade ago when he experienced our cycling pattern hypothesis. It just blew him away back then, but he said that it is not easy to keep track of, which is so right. You really have to find the cycling puzzle daily to stay on top of it. I posted the larger version the other day. So, what is ahead of us in this summer version of the cycling weather pattern?

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What happens next is going to be interesting. This next week will continue to follow the cycling pattern.  The anticyclone has formed and it is where it loves to live over the heat of the desert southwest. Phoenix, AZ averages around 7 inches of rain a year. One of those inches comes during July and the thunderstorms can be rather beautiful to watch develop over the mountains and deserts. The monsoon gets triggered once this anticyclone forms and the flow around it brings moisture to the area from the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California, two warm bodies of water.  The monsoon then gets suppressed when the upper high gets too strong, like it did a couple of weeks ago when it was 122 degrees out there.  The monsoon is now showing signs of getting started.

Around the upper high the plains have what can be called the “rim of fire”, or the “ring of fire” where thunderstorm form and move southeast in northwest flow over the ridge. This has to be watched and monitored closely as well.  By next Wednesday the upper high is forecast to make a move out into the plains and this will be monitored for a possible heat wave.

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The heat is now forecast to potentially move out into the plains early next week. What happens with the upper ridge, anticyclone, next will be monitored closely. Will the ridge move east towards the east coast or back up into where it “wants to be” over the desert heat.  Let’s see how this evolves in the coming days.

Thank you for sharing with us on this weather blog.  Have a great day!

Gary

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3 comments to The Summer Storm Drifts Across Missouri

  • Dobber

    Gary, what does the lrc tell us about yesterday’s rain? When will that cycle back through? mid September or so? I don’t recall having a storm like that during the last two cycles.

    • This pattern cycled through with a storm similar to this one in each of the previous four cycles. They were dry as they were too weak. This will cycle back through around early September.

      Gary

  • kurtjon

    Missed out on the rain Monday and Tuesday and heavier showers around town brought some good rains to areas in St Joseph. Managed ,
    .15 of an inch. Could really use more as I’m about 4 inches below normal year-to-date