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The Struggle for Rain

Happy Mother’s day bloggers,

We are in for another very warm and humid day with little to no rain. This is great news for any outdoor activities, but not so great news for your yard or farm.

We have had a problem with this weather pattern since its formation in October and November. The problem is that when there is a chance of precipitation it often looks like a decent event 2-5 days out. Then, as we get closer to the actual event, the amounts drop off quite a bit. And, guess what, here we go again. We have chances of rain and thunderstorms later tonight, Monday night-Tuesday morning, Wednesday and next weekend. Let’s go over the latest data.

First, where does the Plains stand as far as rainfall for the year? Gary compiled some fascinating statistics for cities around the region.

We are looking at the heart of the drought east of the Rockies. Amarillo has seen less than 1″ of rain all year and remember their snowfall total for the winter was zero! They average about 17″ of snow.

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When you shift to central and eastern Oklahoma the drought eases. Oklahoma City and Tulsa are 2″-3.50″ below average and on the edge of the drought.

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When we head north to I-80 we see locations such as Grand Island, Omaha and Des Moines are also about 2″-3.50″ below average and on the edge of the drought.

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Missouri has quite a rainfall total variety. St. Louis has seen over 17″ of rain, 4″ above average. KC has seen about 10″ less rainfall and we are about 3.50″ below average. St. Joseph has received nearly 14″ less rain this year than St. Louis.

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Average rainfall per week across the region is about 1″ west to 2″ east. So, now let’s see if we can get average rainfall the next 5-7 days.

SUNDAY: Once again we have the set up for thunderstorms as a front remains stalled from southwest Kansas to southern Iowa. The warm air aloft (Cap) will hold today, but break a little bit tonight. So, today will be breezy, very warm and humid.

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SUNDAY EVENING: Thunderstorms look likely to form in central Kansas. Now, will they make it to eastern Kansas and western Missouri?

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MONDAY MORNING: It looks like the thunderstorms will weaken as they move towards KC. We should see some remnants, but we need more than remnants.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: The set up is there once again for thunderstorms to form to the west and north along the fronts. It looks like they will form. Also, they will be closer, so as they move east we should see some nice thunderstorms Monday night. But, they may be in a weakening phase.

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Tuesday is now looking drier and a bit cooler as the cold front above moves through. A weak system may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but that is now looking like less coverage. Thursday and Friday are now looking drier.

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY: The latest data is suggesting amounts will range from .25″-.75″ to 1″-3″. This means some yards and farms will have beneficial rain and others will not. Where will the heaviest rain occur? Well, this data suggests in the big drought areas to the south. KC would see 0.71″ which is 50% of average for a week, not good. Now, all this being said, this is not set in stone as when you are dealing with thunderstorms the locations can change and the models are not good at picking up these changes.

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Have a great week and I hope your yard or farm gets the rain it needs.

Jeff Penner

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