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The Snowflake Contest Begins Today

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny with westerly breezes allowing temperatures to jump to close to 70 degrees.
  • Tonight: Staying mild and clear. Low:  51°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny with increasing afternoon clouds. High: 71°

1The snowflake contest begins today!  As the heat continues out west, snow has been showing up on some of the models near Kansas City.  Another incredible weather pattern is setting up and cycling across the Northern Hemisphere, but what does it mean for the rest of fall, winter, spring, and into next summer?  These answers will be come soon. According to the LRC, a unique weather pattern sets up each fall, from around the first week of October through much of November. It then cycles regularly until early next October when it all happens again. We are in that developmental stage right now.  The models that have had snow near Kansas City no longer have any snow near Kansas City. Once we know the pattern, and this will be in just a few weeks, we will then know when these models are likely showing the pattern correctly, and we will know when they are “out to lunch”.

The models just yesterday were showing a deep upper low possibly forming over Iowa. This model forecast has already majorly changed. Some other changes have shown up that we are paying close attention to:

1

Look closely in the next five days north of the Aleutian Island chain, and over Greenland:

2

The big question that I want answered:  Will this weather pattern be capable of producing some strong blocking near Alaska, and even more importantly over Greenland.  This is something we will learn a lot more about in the next couple of weeks. In the past two winters these blocks were weak and not in the right spot to produce cold winters.  I have seen some evidence that points towards this blocking being much stronger this winter, but I need more.  We have to see it happen first, and just like the snow that has shown up on the models, and then disappeared, let’s see if this blocking actually develops.  We will learn this important factor for this up coming winter within the next couple of weeks.

So, when will we have our first inch of snow in KC. Enter the contest as it is now open.  Last year I got within one day of getting it right. I will be waiting until near the deadline, which is in late November, to make my forecast. Well, unless a good chance shows up earlier. Thank you for sharing in this Action Weather Blog experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to Weather2020.com and click on the blog there to join in the conversation and have a great day.

Gary

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