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The Snow Struggle Continues

Good morning bloggers,

Seven years ago today there was an epic snowstorm over Missouri with a few spots receiving over 20 inches of snow. 23″ fell around Warrensburg, MO, just southeast of Kansas City, while KC received from 9 to 12 inches snow. That storm system produced more snow in those two days, February 1-2, 2011, than has been experienced in Warrensburg in the past four winters combined. There are spots that have had under 25″ in the last four full winters if you add in this one.

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This picture shows my dogs from 7 years ago, Breezy and Stormy. Sunny The Weather Dog is now 2 1/2 years old and would not understand what is happening if this were to happen again. Will it happen in Sunny’s lifetime? The answer is likely YES, or at least around an 8 to 10 inch snowstorm will happen in her lifetime if she lives to a nice age of 14 or 15 years old.

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What is this? This is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This index has been mostly positive all winter long.  This is an indication which likely implies a lack of blocking over the northern Atlantic Ocean. Without any blocking over Greenland, the weather near KC can be affected. The LRC still dominates, but the influences from these other features, teleconnections, are important factors to consider.  Without any blocking over Greenland, the northern Atlantic, or northeast Canada, the jet stream is not as influenced from cycle to cycle.

There is another factor I have noticed that is very, very difficult to explain. There is also a very positively tilted long wave feature that seems to stretch from southeast Canada west-soouthwestward to Idaho. This has also influence most of the potential storm systems in the plains. Not all of them, but most o the storm systems get affected by this feature that I can show in a video sometime soon. It is there right now, in fact.  This continues to influence why Amarillo is now on day 112 of their dry spell.

This doesn’t mean there is no hope fore exciting weather, but the frustrations during winter continue to mount.  Take a look at the latest NAM model:

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This is the total snowfall forecast ending at 3 PM Sunday. This is the one model that has had NO snow modeled in KC, but now it finally has a dusting to an inch band falling apart as it moves in on Super Bowl Sunday. Guess what, the overnight GFS model is now the one model that suddenly had no snow near KC. And, this is after that model had a nice dusting to one inch band until this most recent run. Maybe this mornings run will be more bullish, but we are talking about an inch or less, not an easy thing to forecast.

Remember what I said in yesterdays video:  “Slightly weaker and Tuesdays storm goes poof. Slightly stronger and we would be talking about a much more significant storm”. It is that delicate.

Then, we will look into Tuesday’s storm. The European Model has been consistent in producing an ending to our “no 3″ snows in four years drought”.  But, the other models are not in line. By the way, the GFS model was the first model to have the higher snowfall amounts, but the last few runs took it out. Let’s see where we go today.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Click on the blog over on Weather2020.com and we will continue our discussion over there. It’s Friday! Super Bowl Prediction:  Philadelphia 24 New England 20!

Gary

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