The Panic Period

Good morning bloggers,

We hope everyone is having a great Thursday.  It is a pretty quiet day across the United States.  There is a storm coming into the Pacific northwest, and this storm will then zip out over the plains states, and it will weaken considerably. It will help create some forecast problems this weekend.  As the Kansas City forecast problems are somewhat “boring” for us weather enthusiasts, we have to relax and be patient with this pattern. Could it be another year with less than 10″ of snow?  I believe that has never happened in KC history with three straight years under 10″ of snow.  I titled this blog, “The Panic Period” for a reason. Just when you think you have made some conclusions on the winter forecast, suddenly you see parts of the pattern that we have not seen yet. Remember, we are in this first LRC Cycle.  We are still experiencing it now.  I used to say that the pattern sets up from October 1st though November 10th, a cycle evolves, and then the pattern is set for the year. But, in reality, it takes until around the first week of December. This period of time from November 10th to November 30th used to be called the “Panic” period, as Jeff Penner and I have experienced over the years. But, to me it no longer is because we finally realized we are just experiencing more of this first cycle. The computer models are still mostly useless until we get another three weeks of pattern under our belt. So, I recommend, Don’t Panic.

Screen Shot 2017-11-09 at 8.16.13 AM

What is this? Wow! When we look at the GFS, the European Model, and others, we have seen very little blocking. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have had these ensemble members of the models dipping deep into negative territory. For those of you who love winter weather, well, you want to see this big dip actually happen. I have been expecting it to happen around the 22nd of November. If it does indeed dip that low, then there is usually a lag coefficient where the Arctic air build up would be created days after this big dip, and then it could be an Arctic blast and an energizing of the jet stream due to strong temperature contrast. But, is this forecast dip truly going to happen? It didn’t quite happen in the first cycle, in early October, but it actually came close to happening.  Let’s continue to follow this index.

Kansas City Time-Line:

A Cold front is moving through today and a very hard freeze is likely tonight.

  • Today:  Turning colder with winds increasing from the north up to 15 or 20 mph. High:  45°
  • Tonight:  A HARD FREEZE! Clear with a low of 20°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds. High:  39°
  • Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of drizzle or showers. High:  47°

Thank you for sharing and participation in the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go over to the blog at Weather2020.com and join in the conversation.  Have a great day.


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