Good Saturday morning bloggers,
Overnight there was a clear sky, light wind and a fresh 8-13″ snowpack. This is ideal conditions for radiational cooling. At 7 AM KCI dropped to 2° with a wind chill of -12°! This is the coldest morning of the last two winters!
We will see full sunshine today and this should get temperatures close to 30°, allowing for some melting. So, windshield washer fluid will be a necessity. See MAP #1
MAP #1: SATURDAY AT 3 PM
Sunday will be a dry day with highs in the 30s. There is quite an extensive snow field across the plains. So, this may keep temperatures lower. See MAP #2
MAP #2: SUNDAY AT NOON
If you notice, on the map above snow is breaking out Sunday across eastern Colorado and western Nebraska, the storm is approaching. Now, lets talk about this next winter storm. The heavy snow on Thursday was caused by warm/moist air trying to replace the cold air in a rapid way. This caused heavy precipitation to break out, even though the main storm system tracked to our northwest. This is a different situation confronting us Monday-Tuesday. The snow from this system will be caused by being in the comma head. This is found in the northwest quadrant of the main upper low. I have lived here my whole life and for Kansas City to have the heaviest snow from a system like this, the main upper low needs to track near Harrison, Arkansas. Well,, based on the latest data it is rather close, just south. See MAP #3
MAP #3: UPPER LOW POSITION MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
Here is the latest thinking on the time line.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Dry with a thickening overcast and lows in the upper 20s. See MAP #4
MAP #4: Monday morning at 330 AM
By 6 AM Monday the thunderstorms will change to heavy snow. It is still dry in KC, so the Monday morning rush hour should be dry. See MAP #5.
MAP #5: 6 AM MONDAY. The question we will try to answer this weekend, is will the heavy snow target our area or head south? This what the new data will be all about this weekend. Regardless, of the track we will likely see snow accumulation from this storm. The new 12z NAM suggests the precipitation may start as a freezing rain/snow mix. Something to watch.
Have a great weekend and watch for “Black Ice” and have plenty of windshield washer fluid on hand.