Good Saturday morning bloggers,
Overnight there was a clear sky, light wind and a fresh 8-13″ snowpack. This is ideal conditions for radiational cooling. At 7 AM KCI dropped to 2° with a wind chill of -12°! This is the coldest morning of the last two winters!
We will see full sunshine today and this should get temperatures close to 30°, allowing for some melting. So, windshield washer fluid will be a necessity. See MAP #1
MAP #1: SATURDAY AT 3 PM
WINDSHIELD WASHER FLUID IS NEEDED!
Sunday will be a dry day with highs in the 30s. There is quite an extensive snow field across the plains. So, this may keep temperatures lower. See MAP #2
MAP #2: SUNDAY AT NOON
A BIT OF A THAW SUNDAY
If you notice, on the map above snow is breaking out Sunday across eastern Colorado and western Nebraska, the storm is approaching. Now, lets talk about this next winter storm. The heavy snow on Thursday was caused by warm/moist air trying to replace the cold air in a rapid way. This caused heavy precipitation to break out, even though the main storm system tracked to our northwest. This is a different situation confronting us Monday-Tuesday. The snow from this system will be caused by being in the comma head. This is found in the northwest quadrant of the main upper low. I have lived here my whole life and for Kansas City to have the heaviest snow from a system like this, the main upper low needs to track near Harrison, Arkansas. Well,, based on the latest data it is rather close, just south. See MAP #3
MAP #3: UPPER LOW POSITION MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR HARRISON, AR
Here is the latest thinking on the time line.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Dry with a thickening overcast and lows in the upper 20s. See MAP #4
MAP #4: Monday morning at 330 AM
By 6 AM Monday the thunderstorms will change to heavy snow. It is still dry in KC, so the Monday morning rush hour should be dry. See MAP #5.
MAP #5: 6 AM MONDAY. The question we will try to answer this weekend, is will the heavy snow target our area or head south? This what the new data will be all about this weekend. Regardless, of the track we will likely see snow accumulation from this storm. The new 12z NAM suggests the precipitation may start as a freezing rain/snow mix. Something to watch.
WILL THE HEAVY SNOW TARGET KC?
Have a great weekend and watch for “Black Ice” and have plenty of windshield washer fluid on hand.
Jeff Penner
New NAM snowfall:
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072″
Actually here’s the final map. Shows 8-12″ for KC with 12-14″ on the NE side of town. That’s about 3 feet in central Kansas! On top of nearly 2 feet from the last storm, that would be crazy for them.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″
Regardless, that’s still a TON OF SNOW for our are and so far all of the models have been in line and agreement for yet another significant snowstorm here.
But this IS the weather and the Midwest we’re talking about, so we’ll still have to wait and see.
Not as impressive as the GFS but still pretty good.
I keep having problems viewing the blog and have to refresh several times before the page loads. I keep getting the message “Error establishing a database connection.”
me too
Awesome…and with winds mabye a blizzard or close to it. The winds would cause substantial drifting and make an 8-12 incher seem even deeper.
problems here too. May have to spend the night at work. That is impressive back to back mega storms
Fix the BLog …. iT guys are slacking.
me too…makes me want to put my mouse through my tv…common KSHB..get yer IT s*** together
Dear Old Man Winter,
THANK YOU SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER!!!!
Sincerely Yours,
HeatMiser
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″
GFS nails us
Cool!
The blog nerds to be fixed. Ahh! Come on.
PLEASE FIX THE BLOG. COME ON MAN. GET A BETTER BIGGER SERVER OR BETTER IT PEOPLE.
I wouldn’t promote the blog on the home page until it’s fixed. took FOREVER to just log in.
If the site’s having problems on Saturday morning dealing with traffic imagine what will happen tomorrow night and Monday morning!
So based on the comments so far, even if we’re not in the heaviest snowfall we’ll still see 8 inches or more? Is that right? If so….awesome!!
Good grief…the blog is clunky today.
A Kansas City radio station is saying the weather is coming in Sunday night into Monday morning. It’s really coming in Monday later in the day isn’t it?
My wife had a dream last night that at that school we both teach at we had to stay with the kids overnight on Monday due to the busses not being able to make their way to take the kids home. Let’s hope she is not clairvoyant!
12 inches
Brand new entry on Accuweather.com – Blizzard is coming folks!:
Blizzard for Oklahoma City, Wichita, Kansas City Monday
Brian Edwards
By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist
February 23, 2013; 10:07 AM
Another significant snowstorm will affect cities and towns from the Plains to the Great Lakes early next week, producing blizzard conditions from Oklahoma through Missouri.
This blizzard is following a storm which just dumped a whopping 14.2 inches of snow on Wichita and 11.0 inches on Kansas City.
Snow will quickly increase in intensity on Monday with snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour occurring from Enid, Okla., through Wichita and Topeka, Kan, and even to near Kansas City, Mo., by the end of the day.
As this storm strengthens, blizzard conditions will develop Monday as well along a corridor from Oklahoma City through Kansas City.
Wind gusts to 50 mph will create dangerous travel conditions along Interstates 70, 35, and 44 with significant blowing and drifting along with near zero visibility.
Blizzard conditions will expand north and eastward into Monday night through much of northern and central Missouri along with northeastern Oklahoma.
The heaviest snowfall accumulations which will approach a foot will fall along a corridor from north-central Oklahoma through much of central and eastern Kansas and northern Missouri.
This zone of heaviest snow includes the cities of Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City.
This is impossible. Kansas City never gets this much awesome weather!
To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow…cough, cough, oops, sorry…got carried away, ahem.
Hahaha! Hey, I was having trouble getting in too, we are crashing the server, I was having withdrawal!
There’s also a chance for some light accumulations from another storm on Wednesday. This is special people. KC doesn’t often have a deep snowpack going into March.
The computer models act like they know I live in St Louis suburbs. No way St Louis doesn’t get snow with the track of the storm shown by the models.
Timing on this is critical. Schools will not want to be shut down for three days in a row.
Sounds like they’ll definitely close, whether it’s four days in a row, or whether they stay open part or all of Monday and then shut down Tuesday and Wednesday.
How ice ages start? I suppose it is possible?
Accuweather is calling for a full fledged blizzard for KC and Topeka. A foot of snow, white out conditions at times, wind gusts to 50 mph. This was over an hour ago, I’m a little surprised that Lezak or Penner isn’t all over this on this blog.
HeatMiser and others, you are hilarious! Yes, fix the server…I need my fix to read all the entries and maps! Gary – I wasn’t for sure we would hit the mark this last part of Feb., but you nailed it! When do we see the happy dance? Time to stretch!
Weather Channel is saying possible freezing rain/mix Monday during the day and then changing to heavy snow overnight and most of the day Tuesday, calling for 6-12 and maybe more.
http://www.weather.com/video/winter-storm-rocky-heads-east-34505
Also, NWS just put out this Special Weather Statement.
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY… BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS… NORTHERN… AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 30 MPH. WHILE EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN… THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGH.
Is anyone worried about the freezing rain?? Looks like there might be some
Well, yeah, ME…I immediately expressed alarm but HeatMiser told me not to worry! As a veteran of neighborhoods with above-ground power lines and transformers nearby, I’ll never forget the nights of crashing trees and darkness for days. Three dog nights brought us through until we shouted for joy when the lights (and heat!) returned, and we blessed the departing KCPL crews.
Weather channel now saying they expect big snows in NE KS and says snowstorm will “clobber” the area. Yes, they said it could start out as sleet or freezing rain, but that it will quickly change to snow. Not enough freezing rain to knock power out or anything like that. I’d be more worried about the “40-50mph” wind gusts with all that heavy wet snow on trees and power lines.
I just heard TWC too! Hold on! Get ready for Rocky!!!
Fix the servor please
I think this server is going to be toast by tomorrow if they don’t fix it.
This server business is ridiculous. The timing if this storm is worrisome being a teacher. Hopefully officials will think things through but I doubt they will, especially because the state testing window opens up on Monday.
Some say Rocky can’t beat what Q did to us. I beg to differ:
Common Rocky, get up! You can do it, you can beat that punk! Wait, listen…I hear something in the wind…it’s…it’s coming from out west…I think the storm Rocky is saying something…what’s it say?…what’s it, shhhh…listen….”AAAAdddrriiaaannnnnnn!”
They need to take the server down and start restarting nodes. The traffic the last several days has overwhelmed it.
How often does the NWS update? expecting a WSW for us soon
Cone on IT people. The servers keep crashing. Better fix it BEFORE tomorrow when this place is REALLY going to pick up speed….
They’ll have another one up later in the afternoon.
Winter storm watch for Topeka area now. Here is the link to TWC talking about Rocky around KC area:
http://www.weather.com/video/winter-storm-rocky-heads-east-34505
Also, NWS just put out this Special Weather Statement.
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY… BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS… NORTHERN… AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 30 MPH. WHILE EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN… THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGH.
Blog is toast.
Gary put the weights down and fix the blog!
We have been working with our blog hosting company this morning. The blog should stay up now, and we very much appreciate you patience. Thanks for the time and consideration this morning.
Bill Smith, Dr. of New Media, 41 Action News
I hope you are using a cacheing plugin. Also you should consider something like Cloudflare to take the load of the server.
Thank you very much!
It’s the traffic I’m sure. 99% of the time thia blog doesn’t see this kind of load.
Thank you!!
This should allow more people to get comments through, too. EAX will be issuing a watch with the afternoon update.
“Blowing snow will also be a concern Monday night into Tuesday on the northwest side of the surface low, but do not appear quite strong enough for blizzard criteria. With these types of snowfall rates and amounts, a winter storm watch will likely need to be issued today for much of the CWA.”
Thanks, Bill.
Still having MAJOR problems!
As I look down my street at the MOUNDS of snow everywhere, and then driving around and seeing even bigger mounds of snow elsewhere, all piled up waiting to melt someday, it struck me as sad that even though we are getting all of this winter precip, it’s really not going to help out drought wise so much – especially the farmers, who welcome it, but need so much more. Seems a shame we are not loading dump trucks with all the scooped up snow and dumping it in the ponds,lakes or even reach crops somehow. I read somewhere that we would need 10ft of snow to even get close to where we need to be…”snow recycling”!! Maybe if there is salt mixed in, this is a bad idea….
No, we’re not going to cure our drought with snow, but it also isn’t just about making up numerical deficits. It’s about getting the soil moistened again, and 12″ of snow slowly melting over several days is much better than 1″ of rain in a few hours. If we really do get another dumping on Monday, I bet people will start thinking about shipping it away.
How does dumping snow in a pond or a lake help alleviate drought conditions?
Besides, any amount of moisture helps.
Some of you, like ‘weather’, need to take a chill pill. Geesh!
The earth had weather long before blogs existed, and we survived. I think the IT guys have been as busy as the rest of the 41 staff this week. Patience is a virtue. Some on here aren’t very virtuous.
That said….we have seen some very strong weather patterns over the last year plus. If the pattern for us is now stormy…and its cold….a series of storms fits the pattern.
I would doubt that this happens, but look at this:
“grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif”
After falling out of line last night on the 00Z run, the ECMWF is back in line now with an outstanding track for heavy snow in KC. The 12Z run is just about perfect!
I deal with high traffic blogs as part of my job (especially ones with spiky traffic). I think if your hosting company were to use a plugin for WP called “W3 Total Cache” and maybe do some MySQL and Apache tuning you would probably be in good shape. If you really wanted to go all-out, maybe a CDN like Cloudflare would help too. With all of those in place, several thousand pageviews per hour shouldn’t be a problem even on modest hardware.
NWS will be issuing a WSWatch later otday and a warning later on sunday
NOPE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS.
Could we get a WSW for this storm?
We will get one.
Still getting the error almost every time
hope this gets fixed before Monday morning. I still cannot believe we are in the bullseye 2 times in a row within days of each other. Wsw will most likely come out this evening or early tomorrow
We are working on the blog problems. We are setting records with page views. Hopefully the issues get resolved very soon.
The new models are coming in and I will write an updated blog later this afteroon.
can we get a forecast update? if this second storm happens its like Christmas Eve excitement all over again……bring it!
The new NAM is coming out right now and the GFS will in an hour.
Blog not working well at all with constant database connections errors…hope this is resolved soon…big storm a comin’…
Winter Storm Watch out now. 6-10 with locally higher amounts, winds up to 30MPH.
The new NAM gives pretty much the entire state of Kansas 10-20″ of snow
NAM has 12-18″ across the metro at hour 69
THE BLOG NEEDS HHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLPPPPPPPPPPPP
HELP.
I think it’s time to shut her down for a while and reset all servers. Make it available after 5 or something. Very frustrating.
New NAM is nailing us with forecast 12-14 inches
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″
Make 12-18 inches
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/blizzard-for-oklahoma-city-wic/6725855
Check out accuweather “travel stopping blizzard” maps for our area. KC and Topeka to get a foot of snow according to them.
Christ, the NAM has us getting blasted by 18-22 inches by Tuesday afternoon.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072
The blog is really struggling to load right now but this snowfall map shows a small spot getting up to 20″ on the NE side of town.
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″
I think that is 22, not 20.
Looks like your right! The new NAM basically gives the metro 1-2 feet of snow.
Give us 2 feet of snow with five foot drifts! heh heh
After our last storm the city would be shut down for more than a day.
The event itself is supposed to be longer too…so two days shut down for storm and two more for clean up…LoL!
Yea, weather channel has 70% on Monday, 50% Tuesday and 30% Wed.
Accuweather showing big blizzard for Topeka, KC, with a foot of snow and up to 50 mph wind gusts. They call it a a “travel stopping” blizzard. Blizzard gets cranked up for us Monday night. Very interested to see what Gary’s next blog update says.
Any predictions as to what Gary’s next blog will say?
Does everyone remember what the persimmon seeds showed prior to winter? Guess they were right once again! 4 winters in a row.
There must be some yet to be determined factors or Jeff/Gary would post an update.
are temps going to be cold enough?
Yup, now they are saying some freezing rain mabye Monday morning before it changes to all snow in the afternoon.
Winter storm warning likely for the WSW area issued earlier to include Topeka and Lawrence this evening I think. Possible upgrade to a Blizzard Warning at some point.
Heatmiser my guess is something about it being a complex system. However, in this case that is true. A few degrees and a shift here or there can change a lot of things.
Ah,hi icicle head! Gary said above he just got latest updates and will release blog this afternoon. You know, I normally prefer 80, 90, 100 degrees! But for this storm I’ll make an exception! Bring it on!
I was one of the idiots who went and played at the Idiots’ Open at Smiley’s this morning. It was really fun. I got to as Brett Anthony a quick question about the models and he said the GFS might have a better handle on this storm. I love watching this blog and everyone’s input.
Cheers!
These blog server issues are very frustrating.
The GFS is coming in now
Dodge City is under a blizzard watch now, maybe they will be expanding eastward?
Cool!
So much for the blog issue being fixed. While it’s annoying, I won’t get too mad as the last two weeks have been AMAZING in terms of interesting weather! The blog is simply overloaded with all of our excitement is all.
I’m predicting yet another huge storm, perhaps worse than last time.
New GFS gives KC over 2 feet of snow at hour 63 with more to come on top
27 – 30 inches now south of the metro.
It has a narrow strip of 27-30″ over the southern metro
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=066″
“http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075″
A large portion of metro southern half over 2 feet …northern half in the 12-18 range
two feet!!!
So today’s models are indicating 1-3 feet of snow! Even if you take a small fraction of that we still get a lot.
Look for our WSW to be upgraded to a WSW or Blizzard Warning overnight.
Or a Blizzard Watch.
ERROR ESTABLISHING A DATABASE CONNECTION
KSHB IT – in case nobody has told you, this is what we keep getting when we try to sign into blog or refresh…over and over for hours…extremely annoying.
Thanks and please fix!
That’s it folks. The blog is unworkable for me. I will check back later tonight but this is soooooo frustrating.
Oh my goodness. The city will shut down with that much snow! Bring it on!!! I feel like I am in a snow lovers dream and at any moment I am going to wake up.
Oh great, when I usually have snow envy by the inch…..now I’m envious by feet of snow!
I’m ready, being on your best Mother Nature.
F5, F5, F5, F5, F5…. Hehehehe
LoL
Need to also figuer out how to keep Weather Plus Channel by adding 41.3. Also Cold Rain would turn Snow into Ice and that’s not good. If could go North then in like Severe Weather.
Gary said to go to the Weather2020 blog since it is working better for updates.
“http://www.weather2020.com/blog/”
Yeah, he said storm still on perfect track for KC. Copious amounts of moisture to work with and high snow totals. Snow may not start til evening though, which means mabye some ice during day on Monday.
When are all the shenanigans scheduled to begin?
I thought we weren’t in one of the “hot spots”????
One storm and one possible storm does not a hot spot make.
LoL…new cycle…new hot spots
Hmmm..blog seems to be working better, not perfect, but better.
@#$@#@%@#$@#!!!!
As soon as I say that I have to hit F5 five or six times to send that message…Dang you Murphy and your stupid Law.
Nice work, hot head, getting your picture to show up on the Weather 20/20 site.
Likewise blizzard breath. I like your hat.
I LOVE both of your avatars. Brings me back to the days of watching christmas stomp motion specials. LOVE IT!
I LOVE both of your avatars. Brings me back to the days of watching christmas stomp motion specials. LOVE IT!
You need a hat…look at that hair. You know Mother always loved me more than you.
Well you know brother, one of us has to look hot.
Billy Joe says “let ‘er eat!”
No snow map or mention of expected totals on the 5:00 PM news.
I NEED UPDATES twitch twitch twitch…….error…..error….error..data base connection…error..error…
Worried about those warmer temperatures. Looks like freezing rain will eat into our totals.
Doubting this system will be as accurate as the last one. Temps just a couple of degrees could be the difference in snow, ice, freezing rain and rain.
I’m thinking most of storm will still be snow..after dark and next day. Every station I’ve watched has said so. Accuweather says blizzard for whole area, including way down south in Wichita and into Oklahoma. I think we have a ton of snow coming.
LOL @ Craig and weatherkcmo when aren’t you guys doubting Garys forcast? All I’ve seen is you guys doubting. I think with Garys forcast on top of the NWS already putting us up with a WSW and predicting 8-12 in of snow this will be a big one, just like the last.
How much of a southern shift wiggle room do we have till the heavy stuff ends up way south
I’m not doubting him I’m just sharing my thoughts. Gary is the only met I trust. Is there something wrong with expressing myself?
Updated at 4:00 pm – WSW for Lawrence:
TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 13 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO SEE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
* WINDS…NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
I’m developing carpal tunnel in my F5 finger.
Weather channel just pointed out again that KC will be getting “slammed” by Rocky. Accuweather just wrote that we are going to get “buried” Nat Weather Service at 4:00 updated WSW to say we could get a foot near I-70. Most models show huge amounts of snow. I think the evidence is mostly in. Gary is being a little more tentative than I usually see him…hopefully by tomorrow he will be more willing to make a more bold prediction.
How much threat of the storm going way south and being a bust?
WELL WE WILL SEE AS IT APPEARS AS A SURFACE LOW SUNDAY AND WHERE IT IS IN RELATION TO FORECASTS.
IF THERE IS 18-21 NCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW OR SLEET, FRZNG RAIN ON THE OLD SNOW
SERIOUS ””’ ROOF CAVE INS ARE LIKELY ””’
THE INTERNATIONAL BUILDING CODES WERE NOT MEANT TO HOLD THESE LOADS UNLESS YOU HAVE A 12/12 PITCHED ROOF.
Annnnnnnnnnnd we are all going to die. That’s it, I am spending all my money and going out with a bang!