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The Next Two Weeks Will Be Quite Active In Tornado Alley

Good morning bloggers,

Severe weather risks and flooding risks will be increasing again in the next seven days, and it will be quite active for the next two weeks.  The weather pattern is cycling with the LRC describing the order to what many think is just chaos. It is anything but chaos, as we have been sharing with you for two decades now.  If you just go back and look at the blog, you will find this part of the pattern approaching as being quite active.  It was more on the winter side in previous cycles, and this time it is going to be more like spring, which means an increasing risk of severe weather.  From the SPC this morning:  “An active stretch for severe weather will occur during the entire day 4 to 8 period, mainly over the central and southern plains“.

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This map, valid Saturday evening, shows the blocked up weather pattern forcing some rather fascinating things to happen near the surface.  This map shows the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet above us valid 7 PM Saturday night. There is blocking in the form of upper level highs closing off over Canada north to near the North Pole.  This is resulting in forcing the jet stream to be much farther south than normal near the California coast.  There is a lead upper level storm that is modeled to be moving out into the plains Saturday night, and there is a ridge over the eastern states which will help warm them up significantly.

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What is this?  30″ of snow in mid to late May will be a very rare weather event for the Sierra Nevada. Oh, it snows in May and June up at higher elevations almost every year, but 30″ of snow, maybe 40″ of snow?  Now, that will be interesting to see happen.  And, look at what is forecast at lower elevations:

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This is the European Model, above, showing a precipitation total forecast for the next ten days.  Kansas City is in the 2 to 6 inch range with just as much forecast over California. The rainy season ends in April out west in most years, but this will be an incredibly wet weather pattern for California with the jet stream forecast to be forced farther south by the blocking.  And, look how wet it is forecast to be over Montana and the Dakota’s. Something to monitor closely is the amount of rain falling near the Missouri River upstream from Kansas City.  That is a lot of water predicted in these next ten days and the river will rise if this indeed does happen.

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The first severe weather risk will set up Friday into Saturday.  This map above shows one possible solution for Saturday. It is still too early to lay out a severe weather risk, but there will be one setting up over the central and southern plains, and this is just the lead storm. That energy over the Pacific will be heading out over the Rockies and plains states next week.

Today:

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The SPC put this little marginal risk for today.  There is a little warm front forming, and I need to do a bit more analysis to see if there is any chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon or evening. There is a weak disturbance moving overhead tonight.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation!  Have a great day!

Gary

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