The Next Storm System

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are having a cold March day as our wind flow is coming from the east, originating in the Great Lakes and travelling over snow cover that is sitting over Iowa and central Illinois. Temperatures are in the low 30s with wind chill values in the 20s.


There is also a small disturbance in southwest Kansas producing showers west of Wichita.  This will likely fall apart before it arrives, but we could see a few sprinkles this afternoon and even a peek of sun if the low clouds break up.


The main system arrives Monday and the cold front that came through Saturday will return north as a warm front, playing havoc with our Monday temperature forecast. Also, we have a pretty good chance of rain, but too much rain may occur along I-44. Let’s go through the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

MONDAY MORNING: A decent band of rain and thunderstorms will be likely for the morning rush hour with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. So, yes, it is going to be a cold and wet start to the work week.


MONDAY AFTERNOON: The heaviest rain will be over and we will have scattered showers and some drizzle. You can see how the front may play havoc with the forecast. On this data, it has highs 40°-45° in northern Missouri to 60°-65°  from Pleasanton, KS to Sedalia, MO. So, the placement of the warm front will play a huge role in what it feels like out your door on Monday. We will go with the middle ground here in KC and go for a high between 50° and 55°. It will not surprise me if the warm front stays farther south, keeping more of our area in the cold air.


TUESDAY: A new cold front will be heading south, taking the rain with it to I-44. We will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cool with highs in the 40s. A few showers will be around, especially southeast of our area. The best chance of rain in our area is between 6 AM and noon Monday, while the I-44 corridor gets many rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. See the rainfall forecast map below.


RAINFALL FORECAST: 2″ to 5″ of rain is likely along the I-44 corridor with flooding possible. This area already had major flooding in February, so if you are headed to the Ozarks, Branson, Springfield and St. Louis the next few days, keep this in mind.


RAINFALL FORECAST: In our area we are looking at rainfall amounts between .10″ and .50″. A few locations will see .50″ to 1″ in areas that have thunderstorms. These heavier rain areas could end up anywhere, since they are due to scattered thunderstorms embedded in rain. Remember, the best chance of rain for eastern Kansas and western Missouri is Monday morning, so most of the rainfall amounts shown below will occur before noon Monday.


I am going to put fertilizer down Sunday afternoon as I think we will see just enough rain to wash it in, but it will be a close call. .10″ won’t cut it. We need around .25″.

Have a great week.

Jeff Penner

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