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The Most Tame Part of the Storm, Again

Good Sunday bloggers,

Well, here we go again. We have a storm system tracking into the Plains and eastern Kansas/western Missouri will be in the most tame part of the storm. A blizzard will occur in the northern Plains, high winds will occur in the central Plains and the most rain and thunderstorms will occur east of the Mississippi river.

If you are an LRC doubter, it is hard to ignore the fact that our region ends up in the most tame part of these storm systems every time. The weather is doing what it is supposed to do based on this season’s cycling weather pattern. The one factor that could change this, is time. As we go into the warm season we shall see how this pattern acts. There is potential for this pattern to become more productive towards the middle and end of Spring.  We will have more on that in the coming weeks and months.

Let’s go through the details of this next storm system.

At this time there are a myriad of watches and warnings ranging from fire weather to wind to blizzard.

1

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: It will be windy and mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. The best chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will be after 7-8 PM. A few showers may occur today from Clinton to Sedalia south and east.

2

MONDAY MORNING: There will be a chance of scattered showers until 9-10 AM. Otherwise, it will be windy and mild with temperatures rising to 55°-60°. So, roads for the morning rush hour will likely be damp to wet.

3

MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be sunny and windy as we go in to the dry slot of the storm system. If there is dust picked up in western Kansas, then we may see that in our sky, making for a hazy sun.

4

While we deal with sun, wind and perhaps dust in the dry slot, the northern Plains will have a blizzard in the comma head of the storm system. Winds may gust to 65 mph!

5

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The storm system will track east-southeast, basically going around our area. This will bring the colder air south with clouds and more wind. The snow will stay north and northeast. A flurry is possible in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, but no accumulation is expected. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s. It will be a blustery Tuesday and Wednesday.

6

SNOWFALL FORECAST: 6″ to 14:” of snow is likely from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. So, if you are travelling up I-35 or I-29 the next few days take note of the weather.

7

RAINFALL FORECAST: Rainfall amounts will be piddly across the region, mostly in the trace to .15″ range. There is a slight chance a few locations may see .25″. This is no change from the Saturday forecast and still not enough to even wash in lawn fertilizer.

8

The next storm system is due in at the end of the week and weekend. The GFS has a totally disorganized solution while the ECMWF has a functional powerful storm. Which do you think is correct?

Have a great week,

Jeff Penner

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