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The LRC & This Developing Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Here we go again!  In some winter seasons, 2009-2010 winter & 2010-2011 winter, we get blasted by big winter storm systems and we are so fulfilled as weather enthusiasts it is like winning the Super Bowl.  Not that those of us in Kansas City know what that feels like, and I am talking Super Bowls.  And then in other winters, the past four winters before this year, we do not get that feeling as weather enthusiasts, and frustration builds over years, somewhat like leading 21-3 in a home playoff game and then losing at the end.  We have a set up approaching that is a great exhibit for the LRC, and yet it is still a difficult forecast because of where we live. The forecast is not as complex in other areas off to the east. Kansas City is likely once again going to be close to the edge of this storm, when it comes to the snow part of it. Take a look at this storm developing, and how it relates to the November storm:

Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at 7.05.18 AM

Just look at the maps above. The one on the left shows the storm that happened and produced blizzard conditions in KC, and it also produced the FIRST 3″ snow storm in almost five years.  Yes, we went over four winters in a row without even one 3″ storm in Kansas City, and this streak ended around seven weeks ago.  Well, that part of the pattern is cycling back through right on schedule as predicted 45 days ago by Weather2020.  We predicted that this would return around January 12th, and here it is down to the date.  A specific forecast is verifying.  Look again at the differences in the models:

Screen Shot 2019-01-09 at 7.05.18 AM 2

The NAM and Canadian models both have almost a replica of the November storm.  We know one thing for certain; it will not be exactly the same. There are seasonal differences and as Gary England said to me around ten years ago, “I see it Lezak, it’s the same but different”.  Yes, it is the same pattern, and we will have something similar set up. The subtle differences can make or break our snowfall potential.  The GFS model loses, just barely, the identical look to the pattern, and as a result the snow is weaker and farther east.  For KC to have a big snowfall, the NAM and Canadian upper level model solutions just need to verify, and boom, it will snow a lot.  If the GFS trends to being accurate, even though it is still the same pattern but different, the chance of accumulation is lower and farther east.  Here are four of the models that came out last night:

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3

2

1

So, how will this line up?  Let’s see how the models come in today. I favor the NAM upper level solution, and I only favor it slightly as I am certain it will not line up exactly the same. If it comes very close, then it will snow significantly. If it leans in the GFS direction, then it will snow a lot less.  The temperature profiles are also dependent on how the upper level pattern sets up, so when someone suggests it will be mostly rain, the only way it will be mostly rain is if the weaker and farther east solution sets up. For snow enthusiasts, root for the NAM, it is a possibility.  The new NAM comes out shortly.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Mostly sunny. High:  40°
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny. High:  43°
  • Friday: Rain developing possibly mixed with or changing to snow, first on the Missouri side of the state line by evening or overnight.
  • Saturday: Rain and snow likely. Accumulations of a dusting to 3″ possible. (More will be possible if the storm is better organized) Temperatures near freezing with some light precipitation likely during the game with a northwest breeze around 15 mph.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  W2020 Blog   Have a great day!

Gary

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