The LRC Produces For The Fifth Time

Good morning bloggers,

What we experienced last night was pretty fascinating to watch unfold.  I was on the air at 6 PM explaining what would happen, and then it followed what I expected to develop.  On the air I explained, “the cold front will pass through Kansas City, and then it will interact with a storm aloft moving our way from the southwest. Thunderstorms will develop and then expand north forming into a complex of rain and thunderstorms.  The rain may extend to just north of I-70 with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible farther south”.  It is exactly what happened. How did I know?  The LRC!

Midnight Radar (November 18, 2019):

Screen Shot 2019-04-17 at 11.52.10 PM

Look at the little cure of thunderstorms and rain south of Wichita, KS.  That is the little upper level low that ended up perfectly placed to create this wide band of heavy rain and thunderstorms. And, this looked strikingly similar to the snow pattern on January 12th, and November 25th.  As Gary England said 10 years ago, “Lezak, I see it, It’s The Same But Different”.

Screen Shot 2019-04-18 at 7.30.52 AM

The dip in the upper flow last night at 1 AM shown on the Cycle 5 map is directly related to the upper level disturbance that created the conditions for the blizzard in November, the January 12th snowstorm, and all previous cycles of this years pattern.

So, what is next?  Remember Michael?  Major Hurricane Michael?  In October Michael moved inland and produced a few tornadoes across the deep south into the southeast coastal region around Savannah, GA.  This part of the pattern has produced tornadoes and severe weather in each LRC Cycle near eastern Georgia and the southeast.  Here is a look at the forecast for 1 PM tomorrow:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_7

And, this is no coincidence!  Take a look at the risks the next two days, with Savannah right smack down the middle of the risk tomorrow. Let’s see what happens:

day1otlk_1200

day2otlk_0600

For Kansas City, this storm is not done yet.  A disturbance will be intensifying right overhead later this afternoon and evening. There is a chance of a few convective showers, maybe even a thunderstorm later today.  I have the day off, so I will be keeping track of all of this with you.

Saturday is our Severe Weather Day at the Nebraska Furniture Mart. We hope to see you out there around 11 AM. We will be there from 11 AM to 1 PM. Meet our Weather Team, Storm Tracker, and Sunny The Weather Dog!

Have a great day!

Gary

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