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The Holiday Weather Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Mostly sunny.  There will almost be no wind with a south breeze at 0 – 8 mph.  High:  89°
  • Tonight: A Clear Sky.  Any chance of an isolated thunderstorm is around 5%.  Low: 70°
  • 4th of July:  Mostly sunny with any chance of rain less than 10%.  High:  87°
  • Fireworks on Tuesday evening:  A few clouds. The chance of a thunderstorm forming is 40%.  Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s around 9 PM.

The Cycling Weather Pattern:

Screen Shot 2017-07-03 at 7.02.55 AM

The weather pattern is perfectly cycling in the 56-61 day range centered on 58 to 59 days as we have shown in dozens of incredible examples this year.  The pattern set up in October and it continues through September before a new and unique pattern sets up next October. It is quite obvious in this example above, and what is amazing is we can show the “same pattern” in each cycle. I used this example as cycle 1 matches up almost perfectly with cycle 5, or this week.

What to expect:

  • A major heat wave is likely going to form over the plains during the next ten days
  • 110° is possible over the western plains before the heat breaks
  • Kansas City may make a run at 100° during this first threat of the summer, but it may be tough due to all of the recent rain and how green everything is

If you look closely at this map comparison, you can see this weeks storm system moving by Indiana on both maps. This storm has been throwing our weather forecasts into the difficult territory for days. I was expecting a very good chance of thunderstorms around the 4th of July, but the system is weak and not quite coming together to bring KC that higher risk of messing up the holiday. In fact, the system appears to be taking a track that would keep the chances of rain low, and you can see that in my forecast at the top of this blog entry.

Feature #1 above is a rather large anticyclone, or heat wave generating machine.  This is now being forecast to grow in the next few days. How strong it becomes and where it tracks is somewhat in question. We have been anticipating this to form right after the 4th of July as discussed in the blog for months now.  It is right on schedule, but there are still many questions that remain.

Have a great day. Let’s see how the models trend and we can discuss in the comments section.

Gary

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