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The Historic Kansas City Snow Drought Is Still In Progress

Afternoon update:

The data continues to come in with mixed signals on snowfall totals. I have not identified an organized wave, so I am not convinced of any higher totals.  There may be a thin band that has amounts more the 2″, and we will identify this location by morning.

So, I would like you to let me know what you think of this graphic, before I show it on the air at 6 PM or 6:30 tonight. Do you like it? Does it help any?

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Previous entry below:

Good morning bloggers,

As anticipation builds for our first snowflakes of the season for many of us, there is a lot to discuss.  Oh, yes, we already had the earliest accumulation in Kansas City’s history when 0.2″ fell on October 14th.  I did sort of see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain on the Plaza that evening, but it was definitely more like slush droplets.  We likely will not have to wait much longer as snow is in our forecast.  The question is how much? Will the snowflake contest come to an end?  And, is there any chance of ending this historic Kansas City Snow Drought?

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We are now just three months away from reaching five years in a row without even one 3″ snowstorm.  Some of the models have shown 3″ or more, while others have come in with less than an inch.  What I would like to see is more organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and it is something I am looking for with each model run that goes by. And, I still don’t see that strong organized wave, which makes any significant snow accumulation less likely.  Since our last 3″ snowstorm on February 7, 2014, almost five years ago, there have been 40 different snowfalls and only around 32″ of snow, for an average per snow of 0.8″.  If this average is reached on Thursday night, then the snowflake contest would continue.

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There has been a trend in the model for lower totals, and farther south.  Some of the models came in overnight with barely a dusting in some spots. This is what I showed last night.  On this map, that purple area indicated 1.5″ or higher.  The trend is down to lower numbers at the moment.  There are four to five more model runs to come in for a new trend to develop.

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Latest GFS Model:

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The latest GFS model shows anywhere from no snow accumulation to a grand total of just over an inch in spots.  Is it “here we go again”?  Why would this happen? Take a look:

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So, the trend is down. There is little organization on the latest models of any upper level disturbance that would give me higher confidence.  The snow drought continues, and the lack of a 3″ snowstorm streak will likely continue. It is only early November. Let’s see how this pattern continues to set up.

Have a great day and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Here is the link:  Weather2020 blog

Gary

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