The Heat Wave Breaks Today!

Good Saturday bloggers,

The third heat wave of the season has ended. July 11-13, 2018 was the hottest three day stretch since July 24-26, 2012. Also, the 5 year 100° streak ended as well. So, today with highs mostly in the 80s it will feel much better. What would be even better is if we could end the drought. There will be areas of heavy downpours today, but it will not be nearly enough or widespread enough to even dent the drought. It is just nice to see cooler temperatures and some rain.

Before we get to the forecast, here are the latest 2018 rainfall totals around the area.

KC is nearly 7″ below average.


Olathe is 11″ below average.


St. Joseph is about 9″ below average and this does not include the 0.65″ they received early Saturday.


Lawrence, KS is about one foot below average.


Needless to say, we need rain. There is a system today that will bring some locations nice downpours.

There was a well defined twist of light rain early Saturday located between Wichita and Emporia. This system is tracking northeast at about 20 mph. So, it will be in KC between noon and 1 PM. New showers and thunderstorms will form with this system after 10 AM, so this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.


Here is the data from our in house model for 3 PM Saturday. This is a sight for sore eyes. There are heavy downpours, centered on KC. Temperatures are in the 70s where it is raining. Now, before we all get excited, this area of downpours could end up just about anywhere. So, if your yard or farm is in the rain on this data, it is not a slam dunk that you will see great rain. It is going to depend on the track of the small storm system. “Small” is the keyword, because, it will not be able to bring decent rain to all locations. Some locations will see 1″ to 2″ of rain, while others receive a few drops or nothing.


The system will exit 6-8 PM, taking the downpours away. It will end up being a nice evening with temperatures mostly in the 70s. So, if you are headed to the Kenny Chesney concert there will be a chance of downpours, mostly before 7 PM, then it will be nice.


If you miss the rain today, the next decent chance will be Wednesday-Thursday. Sunday will heat back up to the low 90s, but a cold front Monday will take us back to the 80s and the heat will stay away until Friday or Saturday.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff Penner

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