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The day after 12-12-12

Good morning bloggers,

I received a call on Wednesday from a viewer that I have never heard from before, “Gary, is that it? Is it never going to snow again?”  I spent a few minutes explaining that it has only been two years since a 36 inch winter, and three years since a 44 inch winter. So, we are just averaging out those two very snow winters.  It has been 304 days since our last, and only inch of snow from last winter.  2.4″ fell on February 13th finally ending the snowflake contest.

A fast moving storm will be moving across our area tomorrow night.  One or two bands of rain will be likely Friday night, but amounts will again be rather low.  There is a chance of a thunderstorm or two that would be embedded in the are of rain.  The center of the upper level storm will be passing northwest of Kansas City and this will force a dry slot to spread in overhead by 3 AM Friday night and that will shut off the precipitation.  There is a chance of an enhanced band of rain increasing as it passes by early Saturday morning (2-3 AM) as you can see below:

This next map, on the left (click on it for a larger view), shows the 500 mb flow forecast valid at 6 AM Friday morning. The storm that is going to bring us a nearly 100% chance of rain will be spinning across southeast California near Needles moving into western Arizona.  It will eject out across the plains by early Saturday morning.  The main jet stream is separated from this system. You can see the main flow aloft tracking across Canada and waving north of the Great Lakes states.  This will be holding the cold air up to the north for now.

It will stay dry until after sunset tomorrow. The first bands of showers will be approaching around 6 or 7 PM Friday.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this storm system on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

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46 comments to The day after 12-12-12

  • Bananny

    Gary-Do you have a second guess for the end of the Snowflake Contest?

  • Weatherfreak01

    I am confused…

    You state above that the rain will shut off by 3 a.m. Friday night due to a dry slot. Then you say, “There is a chance of an enhanced band of rain increasing as it passes by early Saturday morning”.

    Do you think we will have only 1 band of rain that will have the precipitation shut off by the dry slot around 3 a.m.; or 2 bands of showers, going through Sat. morning?

    Hopefully it will be clear for the meteor show tonight.

  • ChiefsFan

    Gary, Any chance of any snow anytime soon?

  • sportsfreaked

    Gary the Space Station will be overhead tonight for 5 minutes starting at 5:33 pm. It will come from the SSW and exit ENE. It moves very fast and will be a bright light. If you have binoculars you can actually see the features of the station.

  • mukustink

    Gary you have said plenty of times on air that the pattern shows signs of change. Wha changes are you referring too. It would appear that the patter is the same old pattern. Dry and more dry. Is this going to be another record breaking winter in terms of warmth and lack of snow? Could we possibly break last years record? I believe it’s possible. What say you?

  • StormyWX

    The AO has been going strong and deep into the negative recently (although it has appeared to be retreating some recently). Think this will mean anything within the next couple of weeks or so?

  • sedsinkc

    Questions for Gary, or anyone else who can answer them. Chicago recently set a new record for most days since their last measurable snowfall and their record continues to grow daily. What is the record for Kansas City for most days between measurable snowfalls and how close to it are we now? Did we have measurable (>0.1″) snowfall last winter after our 2.4 inch event 304 days ago?

    • sedsinkc

      Sometimes I think of questions I can answer myself, doh! Our last measurable snowfall last winter was 0.5 inches on March 8. So that’s 280 days ago, by my count…but I still don’t know what the record is.

    • sedsinkc

      I sent a query to NWS Pleasant Hill on the matter and they were kind enough to send me a quick response. Their answer is that the record is 324 days, set from Feb. 27, 1954 to Jan. 18, 1955. So now we all know. Only 44 days away from tying, lol! :)

  • goodlifegardens

    OK, we had fruit trees blooming this fall and today I see my spring bulbs are beginning to grow. Is this crazy or what?!!

  • Weatherman Kumke

    let the Brian Brosco Era Begin.

    First of many changes for KSHB.

    “http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/certified-meteorologist-george-waldenberger-headin/nTSkr/”

  • Weatherman Kumke

    And in other News. Katie Horner is back…

    “http://www.kmov.com/news/local/News-4-welcomes-17-year-weather-veteran-Katie-Horner-to-4Warn-Storm-Team-183340481.html”

    • sedsinkc

      She should be good for some laughs in Saint Louis when she tells her viewers to put their helmets on before going out in a hailstorm.

    • mukustink

      “Katie is best known for her enthusiasm for severe weather coverage.” They should have said her being crazy during severe weather which was for her a thunderstorm!

  • Weatherman Kumke

    “http://www.bottomlinecom.com/kshbs-beth-vaughn-heading-to-indy/”

    Another Brian Bracco move.

    • sedsinkc

      He ain’t messing around, is he? Yikes I’m glad I don’t work there.

      • Weatherman Kumke

        Yeah. I’m wiling to bet Penner is the next to go. Or even Lezak. Bracco isnt going to give Lezak anywhere close to the salary that he wants. (According to reports, he wants 425,000 a year which is a 100% increase. Being last in ratings, He will be lucky to even see a 5% increase of his current salary). That could cause him to flop stations to KCTV or even to KMBC

        • Weatherman Kumke

          If Lezak ever went to KMBC, I think Busby would switch stations or even just retire and do work as an agent for the 40+ meteorologists that he has helped get into markets.

          • mukustink

            Yea people jumped all over me when I mentioned that Gary may be on his way out. I heard he may be going to the Las Vegas area. Who knows. I know one thing nobody is safe at 41!!

            • Weatherman Kumke

              I wouldnt be surprised. Brett Anthony for Chief! More Acorns and Marathons instead of Dogs and the LLTI

              • Zach and everyone else,

                This is not a rumor board. So, please no more starting any rumors. It is amazing the things you read and then report.

                End of rumors: I am not going anywhere. I love Kansas City. Jeff Penner is not going anywhere and he does a great job. Brett Anthony has been a great team member and he has his acorn theory, but where is the snow Brett? He isn’t going anywhere either. We have a strong weather team and George just got a great job in Florida. I think he is going to love it there. We will be searching for a new meteorologist in the coming weeks.

                And, I think we would all love to be making $425,000 and I am not making anything close to that. I know that I work hard and I will continue to work very hard to bring you the best weather information in KC. Occasionally you may have to see my dogs, however. They are only on around once a week for about a total of a minute per week. I love it. And, I love them!

                Now, I think we all need a more exciting weather pattern. I will pay closer attention to the weather blog so please, let’s keep the discussion to weather.

                Have a great night.

                • Weatherman Kumke

                  “And, I think we would all love to be making $425,000 and I am not making anything close to that.”

                  I never said you did. But don’t ask Brian for a 100% increase. Take the 2-5% if he even gives you that. The Iron fist will rule the airwaves. I have a better chance being hired right now as is at KSHB or KCTV than you getting the 100% increase. But atleast you are now paying attention again to the blog. Next 2-3 months will be very entertaining as the sweeping changes continue. Wake up call is coming :)

                • mukustink

                  Gary we know you love KC but you may not have a say in it when all is said and done. I hope not but it sounds like change is a coming. Time will tell I guess. Good luck!

                • davidmcg

                  Gary, listen up, I have my disagreement with the entire weather team and bloggers here. Regardless, none of us have a magic window into the weather, I know several people think you do, but thats their opinion because I know you don’t believe in a magic window. So, I hope none of you go anywhere. I could care less if your forecast beyond 3 days is accurate or not. Whats inportant to me is the weather over hte next 24 hours and impacting severe weather – both f which you are absolutely great at. Yea you get a little excited at times, but who cares, your a professional and your in love with your profession and should be excited. Not one of us could really make ya stay here, unfortunately we could make life terrible for ya and ou would leave and I hope that doesn’t happen.

                  Also, my unofficial pick for fist inch of snow that I never logged anyplace other than my calender is Jan. 16TH, with my first spring severe weather storm to impact the KC area coming Mar. 21ST. I don’t like severe weather, but we need precip we need a lot. A flood would almost be a welcome sight in the great plains, we aren’t that desperate, but getting close.

                • Gary, you have WAY more patience than me… I’d be blocking IP’s. Way to out of line topic for YOUR weather blog.

  • Theo

    Told you Bracco was going to clean house. Mikey – you’re next.

  • Emaw

    Kumke I hope you’re in foxhole somewhere because the bullets are going to start flyin’ from Gary’s henchmen.

  • These posts are almost as exciting as getting Leid,,,Almost….Keep up the good work bloggers… :) :)

  • mukustink

    BREAKING NEWS… Scott Pioli will be fired at the end of the season according to a source of mine. They did not have any info on Romeo but one would think a new GM would want his own coach. Remember you heard it here first on the weatherblog! Looks like 41 is not the only thing getting shook up.

  • mukustink

    BREAKING NEWS… Scott Pioli will be fired at the end of the season according to a source of mine. They did not have any info on Romeo but one would think a new GM would want his own coach. Remember you heard it here first on the weatherblog! Looks like 41 is not the only thing getting shook up.

  • mukustink

    I bet somehow we only get sprinkles tomorrow night. Drought is here to stay :(

  • OlatheMatt

    Maybe KSHB could recruit one of the weather channel women…

  • RickMckc

    Wow, the rudeness of some of the comments here is unbelievable.